New US Regulations Have ‘Strangled’ Huawei. Sources Say If America Implements Its Plans, China Will Forcefully Strike Back .

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 15 May 2020
by Zhang Mengxu, Aoki, Xin Bin, Li Sikun, Zhang Wang, Liu Yupeng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Enshia Li. Edited by Jamye Sharp.

 

 

(Global Times Comprehensive Report) “The continued stability of U.S.-China relations not only benefits citizens of both countries but also contributes to world peace. However, the stability of those relations requires America to develop alongside China,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian, responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of “cutting off the entire U.S.-China relationship.” The weekly German newspaper FOCUS claimed this “completely forgoes diplomatic principles.” Although many people don’t believe these “doomsday scenarios” will happen, Trump’s remarks immediately sparked debate in American discourse about U.S.-China decoupling. The Trump administration has been encouraging supply chains all over the world to “decouple from China.” On May 15, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it is expanding sanctions on Huawei in an attempt to cut it off from global chip manufacturers. This latest attempt to “strangle” Huawei hints at the U.S.’s desire to “decouple” itself from China’s high-tech sector. A source close to the Chinese government told The Global Times that should the United States implement the aforementioned plan, China will forcefully counterattack to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. U.S. stocks opened low on May 15. China’s countermeasures may cause a collective decline in technology stocks, with Qualcomm falling more than 6%, Apple falling 2%, Cisco falling more than 1.7% and Boeing falling more than 2%.

China’s Counterattacks Will Severely Affect U.S. Companies

On May 15, Reuters reported that the Trump administration took measures that threatened to spark a new round of tensions between the U.S. and China. The Commerce Department issued a statement saying that it is revising an export rule “aimed at strangling Huawei and hitting the chip foundries it relies on,” cutting off Huawei’s efforts to undermine U.S. export controls. According to The Wall Street Journal, this measure prohibits foreign semiconductor manufacturers that use U.S. technology from exporting products to Huawei without permission from American officials. This may give the Commerce Department the ability to stop the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company from supplying Huawei with hardware.

Agence France-Presse quoted U.S. officials saying that the new regulations will have a grace period of 120 days. After that, any chips exported to Huawei or Huawei’s affiliates will require a U.S. license. A senior U.S. State Department official said that these measures do not necessarily prevent Huawei from obtaining hardware, but mean that Huawei’s purchase of chips is contingent on Washington’s ability to track the use of this technology.


On the May 15, a source close to the Chinese government disclosed to the Global Times that if America eventually decides to implement the above plan, China will forcefully fight back. China’s specific strategies for a counterattack include listing the U.S. and U.S.-affiliated companies on their “Unreliable Entities List,” carrying out restrictions or investigations, suspending the purchase of Boeing aircraft and more. On Friday morning, CNBC reported on a a tweet from Editor-in-Chief Hu Xijin of China’s Global Times, regarding China’s potential retaliation.

In an interview with the Global Times, several industry experts agreed that such countermeasures are very feasible and will severely impact relevant U.S. companies. For instance, Chinese markets account for at least a quarter to one-third of Boeing’s sales; if China were to stop buying from Boeing, both Boeing and the U.S. civil aircraft manufacturing industry would suffer. Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that U.S. lawmakers, politicians with strong influence on their constituencies, and politicians’ family businesses and the institutions which they control, could all be included in China’s list of “Unreliable Entities.”

After Trump issued his alarming threat of “cutting off U.S.-China relations,” multiple media sources had their own interpretation of what the U.S.government precisely intends to do. The Nihon Keizei Shimbun (Japan Economic News) believes that because it is so rare for a U.S. president to threaten China with such strong language, this may be a sign that complete severance of economic relations, the complete cessation of bilateral trade and strong retaliatory measures, is being considered. However, according to Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in the U.S., this is no more than a “dangerous bluff.” Valery Garbuzov, director of the Institute of U.S. and Canadian Studies think tank in Russia, told the Moscow Communist Youth League newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets, “We know that Trump is unreliable; he does not think things through. He has always issued various threats to China as a reaction to the rise of China.”

The British Financial Times reported that Trump never explained what he meant by severing ties with China, but some U.S. officials hoped that he would exclude Chinese companies from the American supply chain. In an interview with Fox News’ Business Channel Thursday, Trump threatened to impose new taxes on U.S. companies producing goods outside of America. On May 15, TSMC, the world’s largest chip foundry, announced its plan to build a $12 billion chip factory in Arizona. The Voice of America reported that this could be interpreted as a concrete measure taken by the Trump administration to fundamentally reroute global supply chains in the midst of current U.S.-China tension. At this stage, TSMC is critical for both the U.S. and China because it is the only company that can produce the world’s most advanced chips, vital to both nations as one attempts to beat the other.

According to Reuters, Trump’s threat to sever U.S.-China relations is his toughest, most intimidating statement about China since the outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus. Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported on May 15 that China should be prepared for more of Trump’s inflammatory comments, and quoted Lu Xiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, as saying, “We can only try to find sensible clues in his nonsense. We would be better not to play up expectations for the outcome.”

US-China ‘Decoupling’: How Far Can It Go?

“Anti-China sentiments continue to build, hovering over Washington like a dark cloud,” The Washington Post commented before the outbreak of the pandemic, reporting that many experts warned of fault lines forming in the U.S.-China relationship. After the outbreak, the sense that the two world powers are headed for a 21st century collision only intensified. Bloomberg reported that Trump, alongside his senior aides, verbally attacked China daily, and that the coronavirus “resurrected” the worst-case scenario for U.S.-China relations. From supply chains to the visa office, from cyberspace to Taiwan, tensions between the two largest economic powerhouses in the world are continuously escalating. Each new battle will only erode their trust in one another.

How far can the “decoupling” between Washington and Beijing go? The Voice of America reported that some believe the U.S. is not only attempting to cut China off from global supply chains, it is also attempting to completely decouple from China. However, Garbuzov, an expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the U.S. cannot cut off relations with China for several reasons. First, China is one of the United States’ major creditors. Second, the two economies have been intertwined through finance and trade for decades, a reality Trump cannot undo. Third, China and the United States are both such large economic powerhouses that they need to connect to the world through free trade.

“Historical lessons are unfolding before humanity,” commented America’s Foreign Policy magazine, noting that World War I brought humanity’s first global era to a close.* The Great Depression that occurred a mere decade later, and countries rushing to set up trade barriers in an act of economic nationalism both contributed to the outbreak of World War II. As the World Trade Organization pointed out, the main lesson learned from the interwar years is that political cooperation and lasting peace are both fundamentally dependent on international economic cooperation.

According to the German magazine Der Spiegel, the Trump administration’s criticism of the pandemic in China and current U.S.-China relations is a strategy based on opportunism. For weeks, Trump has been looking for a scapegoat to distract people from the disastrous outbreak in America. Sergey Sudakov, a professor at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences, stated in RIA Novosti that all of Trump’s threats regarding China stem from the U.S. losing its economic advantage over China. However, worsening relations with China will cause significant damage to the U.S. economy.

Bloomberg stated that since the reestablishment of U.S.-China diplomatic relations in 1979, tensions between the two countries have never been so high. Trump believes that China has destroyed his chances of being reelected, and thus, before the U.S. presidential election in November. the discord between the two countries may increase. According to CNN, Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations of the Asia Society of America Xia Wei said the most worrying issue is that there appears to be no clear plan to ease U.S.-China tensions even after the election and the pandemic subside. “We seem to be in free fall,” she said.



On May 14, after being interviewed by Fox News Business Channel, Trump visited a medical equipment distribution agency in Allentown, Pennsylvania. As a swing state, Republicans and Democrats have always fought over Pennsylvania in the general election. Although the visit was arranged by the White House, Reuters reported that it was tied to his campaign. He went on to deliver a speech boasting that U.S. testing capacity for the COVID-19 is unparalleled; the best in the world.

According to Johns Hopkins University’s real-time statistics as of midnight May 15, there were 1,420,299 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S. and 85,992 deaths due to the disease. CNN reports show that in the last 24 hours, there were 27,367 new confirmed cases and 1,779 new deaths in the U.S.

The pandemic in the United States has shown no substantial signs of improvement, and the Trump administration has ignored experts' recommendations, pushing for an economic restart. CNN reported a change May 14. Many of America’s top health officials disappeared from the country’s TV screens; it has been a full week since the medical experts in the White House Coronavirus Task Force appeared on television, because the White House strictly controls its public relations strategy.

As for the Trump administration’s continuous attempts to shift blame, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Ros Business Consulting Daily on May 15 that justice means you cannot blame others without any ground to do so. America should not be exhausting its current efforts shouting, “Catch the thief!” or pointing fingers. The emergence of the novel coronavirus is no reason to sanction China.

*Editor’s note: Although accurately translated, the quoted remark could not be independently verified.


美新规再对华为“卡脖子”,消息人士:如美方计划实施,中方将予以强力反击

【环球时报综合报道】“保持中美关系稳定发展符合两国人民根本利益,也有利于世界和平稳定……但这也需要美方同中方相向而行。”中国外交部发言人赵立坚15日就美国总统特朗普“切断整个美中关系”的威胁作出回应。特朗普此前一天的说法刷新了外界对他“不可预测性”的认识。德国《焦点》周刊惊呼这“完全失去外交原则”。虽然许多人不相信这种“末日场景”真会发生,但特朗普的言论一下带热了美国舆论场上关于美中“脱钩”的讨论。特朗普政府一直试图推动全球供应链的“去中国化”。15日,美国商务部宣布正扩大对华为的制裁力度,试图切断其与全球芯片商的联系。这一对华为“卡脖子”的最新举动,露出与中国高科技领域“脱钩”的端倪。有接近中国政府的消息人士告诉《环球时报》记者,如美方最终实施上述计划,中方将予以强力反击,维护自身合法正当权益。当地时间15日,美股开盘走低。中方反制选项可能涉及的科技股集体下跌:高通跌超6%,苹果跌2%,思科跌超1.7%,波音跌超2%。

中方反制措施将沉重打击美企

英国路透社15日报道称,特朗普政府当天采取行动,进一步加剧与中国的紧张关系。美国商务部发表声明说,它正在修改一项出口规则,“从战略上严密瞄准华为对芯片的采购”,切断华为破坏美国出口管制的努力。美国《华尔街日报》说,这项措施禁止使用美国软件和技术的外国半导体制造商,在没有获得美国官员许可的情况下向华为提供产品。该措施可能会让美国商务部有能力阻止台积电向华为供货。

法新社援引美国官员的话说,新规定将有120天的宽限期。此后,任何发往华为或其附属公司的芯片都需要有许可证。美国国务院一名高级官员称,此举不一定会令华为无法获得这些产品,但需要获得许可,让华盛顿能够对技术进行跟踪。

有接近中国政府的消息人士15日向《环球时报》记者透露,如美方最终实施上述计划,中方将予以强力反击。据了解,中方可使用的具体反制选项包括:将美有关企业纳入中方“不可靠实体清单”,依照《网络安全审查办法》和《反垄断法》等法律法规对高通、思科、苹果等美企进行限制或调查,暂停采购波音公司飞机等。美国CNBC在周五早间节目中,对《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进有关中国将反制的推文进行了报道。

多名业内专家在接受《环球时报》记者采访时一致认为,这些反制措施都具有很强的可行性,将对美国有关企业造成巨大打击。比如,中国市场在波音产品销售上至少占到1/4到1/3的比例,中国停止购买不仅对波音公司,对美国民机制造业都将是比较大的打击。商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员梅新育说,可以将那些对华态度激进、主导对华挑衅的美国议员、政客所在选区中有较大影响力的企业,或者这些政客的家族企业和机构纳入“不可靠实体清单”。

在特朗普发出“切断美中关系”的惊人威胁后,对于美国政府打算干什么,不少媒体作出各自解读。《日本经济新闻》认为,美国总统用可能被理解为断绝邦交的强硬措辞威胁中国实属罕见,显示出考虑全面停止双边贸易、采取强有力报复措施的态度。但在美国智库战略与国际研究中心中国问题专家甘思德看来,这不过是“危险的虚张声势”。持类似观点的俄罗斯科学院美国与加拿大研究所所长加尔布佐夫对《莫斯科共青团员报》说:“我们知道特朗普是一个有时说话不加思考的人。他一直对中国发出各种威胁,这是对中国崛起的一种反应。”

英国《金融时报》称,特朗普并未解释他所称的“切断整个美中关系”是什么意思,但一些美官员希望他将中国企业排除在美国的供应链之外。在周四接受福克斯商业频道采访时,特朗普威胁对在美境外生产商品的美国公司征收新税。15日,全球最大的芯片代工厂台积电宣布将斥资120亿美元在美国亚利桑那州建造一家芯片工厂。“美国之音”称,这被认为是在美中紧张关系下,特朗普重整供应链的具体行动。台积电对美中两方的重要性,在于它是现阶段唯一有办法生产出全世界最先进芯片的公司,也是两强在科技竞局中的关键。

路透社称,声称可能切断整个美中关系,是特朗普自疫情暴发以来最强硬的对华言论,充满恐吓意味。香港《南华早报》15日提醒说,中国应该做好准备,迎接特朗普及其团队更多煽动性的言论。该报援引中国社科院研究员卢翔的话称:“我们没必要对他的每句话都反应过度,但需要为可能的行动做好准备。”

美与华“脱钩”能走多远

“反华敌意不断积聚,如乌云般笼罩着华盛顿。”美国《华盛顿邮报》评论称,在疫情前,不乏有专家警告美中间可能出现断层。但在疫情后,21世纪两个重量级大国逼近冲突的感觉已经加速。彭博社说,特朗普和他的高级助手几乎每天都对中国进行猛烈抨击,新冠肺炎疫情“复活”了美中关系最糟糕的场景。从供应链到签证,从网络空间到台湾问题,世界两个最大经济体正在几个方面不断升级争端。每一场新的战斗都只会加深两国之间的猜疑。

华盛顿和北京“脱钩”的努力能走多远?提出这个问题的“美国之音”报道称,一些观察人士说,美国不仅在推动全球供应链的“去中国化”,而且有意与中国进行经济上的大范围“脱钩”。但俄罗斯科学院专家加尔布佐夫认为,美国不可能切断与中国的关系。原因包括:中国是美国主要债权国之一;美国经济数十年来通过金融、贸易等方式与中国经济交织在一起,并获得发展,特朗普无法打破这一现实;中美是世界上两个经济大国,不可能没有联系。

“历史教训摆在人们面前。”美国《外交政策》杂志评论称,第一次世界大战结束了人类的第一个全球化时代,十年后发生的大萧条,各国争相设置贸易壁垒,经济民族主义高涨,最终导致第二次世界大战的爆发。世界贸易组织指出:“从两次战争之间的经验中得出的主要教训是,国际政治合作以及持久的和平从根本上取决于国际经济合作。”

在德国《明镜》周刊看来,特朗普政府对中国疫情以及美中关系的批评是一种投机主义战略。数周以来,特朗普一直在为美国疫情危机升级寻找替罪羊。俄新社援引俄军事科学院教授苏达科夫的话说,特朗普发表的对中国所有威胁言论都是因为美国失去了对中国的经济优势。但恶化与中国关系将给美国经济造成重大损害。

彭博社称,自1979年美中关系正常化以来,两国关系从未像今天一样危险和对抗。特朗普认为中国破坏了他大选获胜的机会。在11月美国大选之前,美中之间的不和还可能变得更加激烈。CNN援引美国亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟的话说,令人担心的是,即便疫情和美国大选结束,对于如何缓解紧张局势或使美中关系恢复稳定目前也没有明显计划。“我们似乎处于自由落体状态。”

“正义意味着不能毫无根据地指责别人”

当地时间14日,在接受福克斯商业频道采访后,特朗普前往宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦访问一家医疗设备分销机构。该州一直是共和党和民主党在大选中都渴望争取的政治摇摆州。路透社称,尽管此次参观是白宫安排的,但它具有竞选意味。特朗普在宾州发表讲话,夸耀美国新冠病毒检测能力天下第一。

根据美国约翰·霍普金斯大学的实时统计,截至15日24时,美国新冠肺炎确诊病例1420299例,死亡85992例。据CNN报道,在此前24小时,美国新增确诊病例27367例,新增死亡病例1779例。

美国疫情并未出现实质性改善迹象,特朗普政府不顾专家建议急推经济重启。CNN14日发现一个变化:美国多名顶级卫生官员从电视上集体消失。报道称,距离最近一次白宫新冠病毒应对工作组医学专家出现在全国性电视上已经整整一周时间。因为新成立的白宫新闻团队就其公共关系策略进行了严格控制。

对于特朗普政府不断甩锅,俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫15日对该国《商业咨询日报》说,正义意味着不能毫无根据地指责别人。目前,所有的努力都不应该是大喊“抓住小偷!”或者用手指指着谁。他说,新冠病毒在中国出现不能作为对中国实施制裁的理由。
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