The whims of the calendar have made the first anniversary of Barack Obama’s presidency coincide with a significant defeat — the loss by the Democrats in the state of Massachusetts, a constituency that they dominated for half a century. The loss of the seat that the deceased Ted Kennedy left vacant leaves Obama without the super majority in the Senate. Without a doubt, this is a pessimistic signal for the legislative elections of next November, in which the Democratic president is very weak.
It is impossible to explain how the dizzying loss of affection on Obama's part was possible without mentioning the key aspects of his politics: his option for a pacifying message in foreign affairs and his determination to carry out health care reform. Many of the Independent voters who supported him in November 2008 have started to abandon him, fearful of a program that moves North American standards to leftist radicalism. The hand extended to those who see it stained with blood has not served to eliminate the threat that free societies face, and the European-style project of Social Security is not as popular in the U.S. as we imagine from this side of the Atlantic. Many leaders like Obama — and Zapatero has shared the sentiment many times — think that good intentions are enough to change reality, when the opposite happens nearly every time.
Although he lost a seat, Obama maintains the majority in the Senate, but he must negotiate the foreseen changes in his program with the Republicans. The North American system is full of means to impede people from monopolizing power, despite clear majorities in Congress. For some, this distribution means that the system is blocked; for others, it simply means that there are mechanisms that protect it from ventures that do not have indisputable support. Until now, Obama has been able to work with secondary support by the Republicans. If he does not want to be defeated in November, he should begin to negotiate for real.
LOS caprichos del calendario han hecho coincidir el primer aniversario del mandato presidencial de Barack Obama con una derrota tan significativa como la sufrida por los demócratas en el Estado de Massachusetts, una circunscripción que dominaban desde hace medio siglo. La pérdida del escaño que dejó vacante el fallecido Ted Kennedy deja además a Obama sin la mayoría cualificada en el Senado. Sin duda, una pésima señal para las elecciones legislativas del próximo noviembre, a las que el presidente demócrata llega muy debilitado.
No es posible explicar cómo ha sido posible esta vertiginosa pérdida de simpatías por parte de Obama sin mencionar los grandes estandartes de su política: su opción por un mensaje apaciguador en política exterior y su empeño en llevar a cabo la reforma sanitaria. Muchos de los votantes independientes que le dieron su apoyo en noviembre de 2008 han empezado a abandonarle, asustados por un programa que para los estándares norteamericanos roza el radicalismo de izquierda. Ni la mano tendida a aquéllos que la tienen manchada de sangre ha servido para eliminar la amenaza que afrontan las sociedades libres, ni el proyecto de una Seguridad Social al estilo europeo es tan popular en Estados Unidos como imaginamos desde este lado del Atlántico. Muchos dirigentes como Obama -y Zapatero lo ha comprobado muchas veces- creen que sus buenas intenciones bastan para cambiar la realidad, cuando lo que sucede casi siempre es lo contrario.
Aunque haya perdido un escaño, Barack Obama mantiene la mayoría en el Senado, pero deberá pactar con los republicanos los cambios previstos en su programa. El sistema norteamericano está lleno de resortes para impedir que nadie monopolice el poder, aunque tenga mayorías claras en el Congreso. Para algunos, este reparto significa que el sistema está bloqueado; para otros, simplemente que existen mecanismos que lo protegen de aventuras que no cuenten con un apoyo indiscutible. Hasta ahora, Obama ha podido trabajar sólo con apoyos accesorios por parte de los republicanos. Si no quiere ser derrotado en noviembre, deberá empezar a pactar de verdad.
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The madness lies in asserting something ... contrary to all evidence and intelligence. The method is doing it again and again, relentlessly, at full volume ... This is how Trump became president twice.
It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.