Obama Helpless in Shoring Up American Economy

Published in Hong Kong Commercial Daily
(Hong Kong) on 3 February 2010
by 凌昆 (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Tim Lim. Edited by Brigid Burt.
The economy is the number one concern for American people. Obama’s approval rating has been on a steady decline since he was elected a year ago. The Democratic Party’s defeat in the Massachusetts’ senatorial election showed that people are disappointed in his government. The main reasons are the slow economic recovery and the high unemployment rate. People are also unhappy about tax-funded bailouts followed by large banking executive bonuses. The combination of a sluggish economy and the mishandling of banking bailouts laid a foundation for the low approval rating.

Confidence level is still low

Economic recovery has been an important focus since Obama took office. His $800 billion stimulus package still had an impact on the first half of this year. He also set extra-low Federal Reserve interest rates to further create a net negative 4 percent interest rate. All the efforts started to take effect. The U.S. GDP rose consecutively in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Additionally, the banking bodies have stabilized. However, all these signs did not put people at ease. The lack of confidence is understandable. The stabilized American banking systems and economic recovery did not have a firm foundation: banks rely mainly on the housing market bubble and toxic assets for profit and share dividend. Capital shortage and credit crunch issues still persist. The housing market is still weak and had lost one third of its value before stabilizing. The job losses have slowed, but the unemployment rate hovers at slightly over 10 percent and is still far from recovery. Analysts thought recent GDP growth was fueled by backfilling the depleted warehouses, which will not persist.

Obama is well aware of the public opinion. Therefore, in the recent State of the Union address, he placed great emphasis on economic issues and proposed many concrete measures. The four main initiatives include financial reform, encouraging innovation, increasing exports and more educational funding. All actions are aimed at fostering entrepreneurship and helping the middle class with tax incentives and financial aids. Mentally, Obama also tries to stir up patriotism by saying that the U.S. would not accept second place for itself in the world.

Huge financial constraint

Obama has proposed many long-term growth strategies since he became president. In the State of the Union address, he reinforced his commitment by unveiling the new energy plan and high-speed rail systems. Obama’s proposals are both comprehensive and directionally correct. They are also reasonable and timely to meet both short- and long-term needs. The key is to execute the plan, which could face difficult obstacles.

The first obstacle would be financial constraint. Both short- and long-term programs need to be funded. In times of recession, household and company spending have focused on deleveraging and preserving their strength. Therefore, the task to revive the economy rests on the government’s shoulder. But the U.S. is facing an unprecedented spending deficit. The deficit for last year and the projected number for this year would reach $1.3 trillion. This is about 10 percent of the total GDP, which is at a new level since World War II. The projected total financial deficit for the next 10 years would reach $12 trillion, approaching current total GDP.

At this rate, Obama has to watch the spending. His one option is to better utilize the $800 billion stimulus package and TARP money that have already been approved. His only other option would be to use the government controlled discretionary domestic spending, which has grown to $120 billion.

Facing increasing public unease toward financial deficit, Obama had to propose a spending freeze that is not related to national security and medical care. However, the amount involved in the proposal was only around $15 billion, which is like a drop in the bucket. This could cause investors to lose confidence in U.S. dollars and America’s ability to bring the budget deficit under control.

Without sound financial backing, Obama’s economic recovery plan would not have sufficient substance to solve these issues. The roots of America’s problem lie in overspending and lack of investment. Without proper funding, Obama is helpless to shore up the American economy. For example, under Obama’s $8 billion financial package for building high-speed train rails in 31 states, and amount that is only enough to build Hong Kong's high-speed railway, the average per state funding is merely $200 million. [Editor’s note: While this sentence is mathematically correct, each state received different funding amounts, depending on states’ existing rail lines and grant requests.] America’s road network, seaports, airports and other infrastructure are beginning to age. If no renewing is done, America will soon lose its leading position in the world.


經濟民生永遠是人民最關心的問題,在美國亦不例外。奧巴馬上任一年來民望大跌,最近還在馬薩諸塞州選舉慘敗,反映了人民對他的政績失望,其中一個重要原因,就是實體經濟未有明顯好轉,失業情况嚴重,而另一方面銀行界在納稅人全力救援后卻大分花紅。經濟低沉而分配不公,終導致民怨沸騰,執政者自會深受責備。

信心仍然虛怯

奧巴馬上任以來實已十分重視經濟復興的工作,去年初立刻拋出近8000億美元的刺激經濟方案,其影響在今年上半年仍將繼續,此外還通過聯儲局超低息大放水來支撐場面,并已造成了逾4%負利率的不正常狀態。這些努力亦非全無收效,美國GDP在去年第三、四季已連續回升,金融體系至少從表面看亦穩定下來,但可惜人民信心仍然虛怯。這也完全合理,因為美國的金融趨穩及經濟復蘇,其實沒有很堅實的根基:銀行獲利分紅主要是靠資產市場泡沫,毒資產、資本不足及信貸緊縮等問題未得根治。樓市仍然疲弱,樓價開始企穩但已掉了約三分之一,斷供潮仍未稍停,更為嚴峻的是失業情况惡化步伐雖已放緩,但離轉勢尚遠,在一段時間內將出現無就業復蘇,失業率在突破10%后居高難下。不少評論對GDP回復增長的持久性亦存疑,指復蘇主要是由庫存補倉帶動,完事后便難以為繼。

奧巴馬對民意變化情况自十分了解,因此在日前的國情咨文演說中,便着重解決國內的經濟民生問題,并提出了多項方針及具體緩解措施,希望能挽回民望。在大方針上,他定下了金融改革、鼓勵創新、增加出口及投資教育等四大目標,在行動上圍繞創造就業及扶助中產等議題,推出了一系列的稅費優惠及資助等措施;在心理上則力圖挑動人民的愛國情懷,故高呼要在歐洲及中、印等的挑戰下力保「一哥」地位,不做阿二。

財力不足掣肘大

為應對挑戰,奧巴馬自上任至今,已陸續提出了不少促進長遠發展的策略,在國情咨文中這方面又得到了加強,包括撥款資助新能源開發及高速鐵路建設等項目。奧巴馬的宏圖從導向性、全面性及具體性看都是合理且及時的,兼顧了當前的應急和長遠發展的需要,但關鍵是能否真正落實,而這將要面對一些深層且不易突破的障礙。

首先是財力掣肘,無論救急或長遠發展都在在需財,在這低迷時期,家庭及企業等私人部門,均注重去槓桿化及保存實力,故難有大作為,振興經濟重任只能落在政府肩上。但美國要面對的嚴峻問題是國庫空虛,財赤高企,去年及今年財赤均高逾1.3萬億美元,接近GDP的一成,乃二戰以來的新高,未來 10年估計累計財赤將達12萬億,接近目前美國的GDP規模。

在這情况下,奧巴馬已不能如去年初的豪氣干雲,說不怕財赤只求振興,再推新一輪的大型刺激經濟方案。故他只能在原有的撥款,如8000億方案及TARP等金融救援資金中,盡力擠出點款項。另一個財源是通過政府權限內的自由國內支出(discre-tionary domestic spending)機制調撥,自奧巴馬上任以來,這一項已大增近1200億美元。

另一方面,為應付人民對財赤高企的擔憂,奧巴馬不得不提出凍結不涉及國家安全與醫療等方面的財政支出。但這只是實效不大的作態,受影響數額不大,預計在下年度亦只能節省150億美元的支出,對改善財政平衡無异是杯水車薪。這又反可能增加投資者對美元美債的疑慮,認為美國政府基本上已無力控制財赤問題。

無論如何,在財力不足的情况下,奧巴馬的振興經濟政策只能像撒芝麻般,到處開花人人有點,但卻未能針對重點提供有力的解決方案,政策力度不足是致命傷。美國的根本問題是消費過度,投資不足,在這方面,奧巴馬尤其顯得有心無力,例如他撥出80億美元資助31州建鐵路,金額只夠香港建高鐵,31 州每州平均只得2億多。美國的路網、港口、機場及其他基建設施,都正開始老化落伍,如不及早翻新,美國不單「一哥」地位難保,更將漸與發展中國家看齊。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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