The Size Matters

Published in ABC Journal
(Spain) on 16 February 2010
by Florentino Portero (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Martin Tran. Edited by Jessica Boesl.
We all learn from experience. The most current events influence our analysis more than those that have already faded away in our memories. The strategy designed by General McChrystal for Afghanistan, which was only partially assumed by President Obama, was used by General Petraeus in Iraq, having had the full support of ex-President Bush. Those involved in the Mushtarak operation, designed to clear out Taliban forces from the troubled city of Helmand, remember the taking of the city of Fallujah in the still conflict-ridden Iraqi province of Anbar, and not only due to the coincidence that some units were involved in both campaigns.

North Americans and Iraqis conquered the Islamic stronghold of Fallujah, expelling the rebels, and when they left to take on new missions, the Islamic forces returned to retake the city. General Petraeus adroitly convinced Bush that only by increasing the contingent by a considerable amount, up to 150,000 men, would it be possible to consolidate control of the territory. The city of Fallujah was then re-captured. It was maintained by an on-guard security group and old stronghold radicals who converted and became a bastion of the (awakening) Sunni.

The Mushtarak operation has had complete coverage from before it began until the last of the Taliban came to expect what was about to happen. Clashing forces are cleaning the territory, but it is highly likely that most of the insurgents have retired to secure positions knowing that the Americans do not have enough troops to permanently occupy the territory. And so, once the troops have withdrawal, the Islamic rebels will take control over the providence once again. Afghanistan is a theater more complicated than Iraq and the United States are now wondering if it possible to achieve a victory with less resources than expected.


Todos aprendemos de la experiencia. Los hechos más recientes influyen sobre nuestros análisis más que aquellos otros que se difuminan en la memoria. La estrategia diseñada por el general McChrystal para Afganistán, sólo parcialmente asumida por el presidente Obama, está marcada por la que aplicó el general Petraeus en Irak, que sí gozó del pleno apoyo del entonces presidente Bush. La operación Mushtarak, dirigida a limpiar de fuerzas talibanes la conflictiva provincia de Helmand, recuerda mucho las dos tomas de la ciudad de Faluya, en la no menos conflictiva provincia iraquí de Anbar, y no sólo por la coincidencia de algunas unidades en ambas campañas.
Norteamericanos e iraquíes conquistaron la plaza fuerte islamista de Faluya, expulsaron a los insurgentes, se retiraron en pos de nuevos cometidos... y los islamistas volvieron a hacerse con el control de la ciudad. Petraeus tuvo la habilidad de convencer a Bush de que sólo aumentando considerablemente el contingente -hasta 150.000 hombres- sería posible consolidar el control sobre el territorio. Se reconquistó Faluya, se mantuvo un dispositivo de seguridad conjunto y el antiguo reducto radical se convirtió en bastión del «despertar» suní.
La operación Mushtarak ha sido publicitada con anterioridad a su inicio y hasta el último talibán estaba al tanto de lo que iba a ocurrir. Fuerzas de choque están limpiando el territorio..., pero es muy probable que la mayor parte de los insurgentes se hayan retirado a posiciones seguras, sabedores de que los norteamericanos no tienen tropas suficientes para ocupar permanentemente el territorio. Esperarán su retirada y retomarán el control de la provincia. Afganistán es un teatro más complicado que Irak y Estados Unidos se equivoca si piensa que se puede lograr la victoria con menos recursos que entonces.
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