A year ago, Obama was not too thrilled that, politically, Israel had turned further to the right and that Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, became Israel’s Prime Minister. The American president was dreaming about a grand scheme for the region with the focus of having an America that was closer to the Muslim world, embraced by the Arabs.
For this dream, Israel was an obstacle. Israel under Bibi’s governance — an insurmountable obstacle. Netanyahu represented the opposite of what Obama desired for Jerusalem: a docile leader, who would faithfully follow Washington’s dictates regarding Iran, the peace process, settlement disputes and even the partitioning of Jerusalem. Obama had many aspirations.
This year, Netanyahu has played his cards well and managed to diminish the divergences between the two countries. However, authorization for the new housing projects in Jerusalem has provoked the greatest crisis since 1975, according to the Israeli ambassador in Washington, Michel Oren. In Israel, it is assumed that every policy response that is acceptable to Obama ties Israel’s hands in regard to the Iranian nuclear program, for which we will soon approach an inexorable decision: accepting or averting the bomb. By frightening Netanyahu from America, the White House hopes to be able to slow him down.
However, Obama is confusing wishes with reality: An Iranian nuclear weapon is unacceptable to the Israelis as a whole, not just to its prime minister. Netanyahu’s popularity is high at the polls, with numbers never before seen in a country that savages its politicians, while Obama’s popularity doesn’t even reach 4 percent, the lowest in history. Netanyahu is a credible leader for many Arabs, while Obama has lost much of his credibility.
I don’t know who has more to lose these days. Nonetheless, the one gaining the most is clear: an Iran that’s rubbing its hands together while witnessing the White House quarrel with its main ally in the area. Netanyahu has no strong opponent to replace himself — a fact that Obama should just start accepting.
A Obama no le sentó bien que Israel girase a la derecha y que Benjamin Netanyahu, «Bibi», fuese el nuevo primer ministro de Israel, hace ahora un año. El presidente norteamericano soñaba con un gran diseño para la región en la que lo importante era una América más próxima al mundo musulmán, que acabase querida por los árabes.
Israel era para eso un obstáculo. Un Israel bajo Bibi un obstáculo insalvable. Netanyahu era lo opuesto a lo que Obama quería en Jerusalén: un líder dócil, y que siguiera fielmente los dictados americanos, hacia Irán, en el proceso de paz, en los asentamientos y hasta en la partición de Jerusalén. Mucho aspirar.
Este año, Netanyahu ha sabido jugar bien sus cartas y logró diluir las divergencias entre ambos países, pero la autorización de nuevas viviendas en Jerusalén ha provocado la mayor crisis desde 1975, a decir del embajador israelí en Washington, Michel Oren. En Israel se da por sentado que todo responde a una política de Obama para atarles las manos frente al programa nuclear iraní, ante el cual se acerca una decisión inexorable: o aceptar la bomba, o impedirla. Asustando a Netanyahu desde América, la Casa Blanca esperaría poder frenarle.
Pero Obama confunde sus deseos con la realidad: la bomba iraní es inaceptable para los israelíes en su conjunto, no sólo para su primer ministro; la popularidad de Netanyahu está en cuotas antes nunca vista para un país que canibaliza a sus políticos, mientras que la de Obama en Israel no supera el 4%, la más baja de toda la historia; Netanyahu es un líder creíble para muchos árabes, mientras que Obama ha perdido gran parte de su credibilidad.
No sé quien puede perder más en estos momentos. En todo caso, quien más gana está claro: un Irán que se frota las manos testigo de las trifulcas de la Casa Blanca con su principal aliado en la zona. Netanyahu no tiene quien le sustituya y Obama debería ya empezar a aceptarlo.
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It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.