Diminishing U.S. Influence in Latin America

Published in Takungpao
(Hong Kong) on 13 June 2010
by Ouyang View (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Adelina Wan. Edited by Alex Brewer.
The U.S. has always considered Latin America her backyard of security. However, the U.S. is constantly being challenged by Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, who uses confrontational language and behavior to challenge the core values of the U.S. in the region. Now Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina and some Central American countries such as Guatemala, under Brazil’s leadership, openly or discreetly stand alongside Chavez, opposing America. The U.S. has always been able to brush off antagonism against herself, considering it difficult for Latin America to actually go against her. However, with the recent surfacing of anti-American sentiment in the Latin American region, the U.S. may finally realize the severity of the problem and start to assess how to suppress this sentiment.

Latin America Begins Marching into the World

Recently, a former high-ranking official of the U.S. government wrote an article about Euro-Asian influence in Latin America and the diminishing influence of America there, warning the White House not to ignore its relationship with Latin America. The warning seems to protect the benefits of those in power in America; in reality, it reflects two issues. The first is the outside influence in Latin America. The second is that Latin America has walked out of the shadow of American influence or control. Latin America is fighting for its own independence and no longer depends on America.

The U.S. has two blind spots in Latin America. First, it has always considered Europe its ally and banks on the fact that Europe will never seek to gain an advantage in the well-known American protected zone. However, even before the Greek debt crisis, many European companies had already made advancements in Latin America in the form of corporate development. This has resulted in Latin America steering toward European influence. Such a situation further motivates the European economic powers to increase their influence.

The tense relationship between Britain and Argentina, stemming from the Falkland Islands issue, is still apparent today. In the eyes of the Argentines, Europe has always been viewed as an invader. But such sentiment is not shared by other Latin American countries, because Latin America has always embraced the attitude of “minding one’s own business.” They would not sacrifice their own interest to maintain balance in the region for another Latin American country that has a strained relationship with Europe.

Secondly, Asia has begun to exert economic influence on Latin America, especially Japan, which already owns large automobile and high-tech production projects like electronic appliance manufacturing. Japanese market share in Latin America is higher than that of the U.S.

Next, Korea is also closely following suit. Hyundai group has established a significant market share in Latin America. Korean automobiles and electronic products are challenging their Japanese counterparts, even engaging them in a price war. Korea foresees that low price is the key element in setting foot in Latin America. Thus Korea has adopted a low-price strategy. Once it gets into the Latin market, it can further boost its market share. Apart from that, China’s entry into the Latin American market is based on trade and investment. Latin American countries see mutual benefits in such interactions. The rise of China in Latin America is also considered a very significant influence.

Euro-Asia Advancement and the U.S. Suffers

Some people consider that the U.S.’ assessment of Latin America is one that is stuck in the ‘70s and ‘80s. This is incorrect. Starting in the late ‘90s, the White House’s evaluation of Latin America changed due to the actions of Chavez. At that time, the U.S. could no longer tolerate his confrontation and planned to cultivate an opposition force to oust him from power, but the effort was unsuccessful. Later, due to the Iraq and Afghan Wars, coupled with the cowboy foreign policy of former President Bush, the U.S. wanted to concentrate on the battlefields and slowed down its siege of Chavez as it believed that, at the time, any move in Latin America would not affect security in its own backyard.

At the beginning of this year, the U.S. launched military collaboration with Columbia in a high-profile manner by sending military forces to be stationed there, showing off its might to Venezuela. Such action makes it clear to the world that the U.S. wants to regain control in Latin America. The reason is the increasingly hostile behavior of Chavez, as well as the crisis in Brazil getting out of control. The U.S. hopes, with both hard-line and conciliatory policies, that the U.S. can suppress Chavez and control Lula, the Brazilian president. In reality, Brazil has reservations about cooperation with Chavez. On one hand, Lula agrees with Chavez in the opposition of aggression; on the other hand, he always maintains a high profile as a member of the BRIC countries. His wavering attitude is a good match for America to go against Chavez; Lula’s confrontational attitude is not as intense as that of Chavez.

The article by the former official reveals the concerns of the [U.S.] business community in losing its interests in Latin America. The article points out that Latin America has become the target market of India, with its enormous growth in manufacturing production. India has the same strategy as Korea: pushing into the Latin American market through low profit and high volume, allowing itself to gain an increased market share. In light of European and Asian expansion and increasing competition in the Latin American market, a U.S. monopoly in the region is being shattered. Coupled with Chavez’s political confrontation, the U.S. realizes that if it continues to ignore security in its backyard, sooner or later a fire will erupt.

U.S. Has to Face Up to Changes in Latin America

On the other hand, however, Latin America cannot advance by merely following the United States. Chavez challenges the U.S. politically, whereas Lula opposes America in economic policy. With the echo of the poorer and smaller countries such as Bolivia, Ecuador and Argentina, it is apparent that Latin America is making a move in the context of a changing world, although it is currently hard for them to create a concerted effort, because individual Latin American countries are more focused on their own benefit. Nonetheless, with the momentum to change being formed, this will one day come true.

The former high-ranking official who wrote this article has warned of the threat of America’s eventual loss of Latin America due to its long-held, unchanged strategy toward Latin America. The Obama administration still feels that the U.S. has a strong influence on Latin America, but increasing control may not be beneficial to the U.S., not to mention the tremendous effort involved. Therefore, such statements only serve as a warning bell. The U.S. seems unlikely to take Latin America’s change seriously unless extreme conditions surface.



美國在拉美影響力漸弱/ 歐陽觀
2010-6-13
向來視拉美為安全後院的美國,先受到委內瑞總統查韋斯的不斷撞擊,以對抗式語言和行為挑戰美國在這一地區的核心價值,後又有巴西帶動玻利維亞、厄瓜多爾、阿根廷乃至中美洲的危地馬拉等國,或明或暗站到查韋斯一邊,與美國唱反調。美國對於這些反美力量向來採取不以為意態度,認為在拉美掀起反美之風難有市場。不過,近期拉美地區不斷出現的仇美風氣,終於令美國意識到問題的嚴重性,開始評估如何壓抑這股風氣。

拉美開始走向世界

最近有美國前高官撰文,從另一個角度評論歐亞勢力進入拉美的問題,認為美國在拉美的影響力日漸衰落,警告白宮在與拉美的關係上不應掉以輕心。表面上看,這是為美國當權者的利益著想,實際上是從另一個側面反映了兩個問題:一是外界對拉美的影響力正在增強,二是拉美已走出受美國影響或控制的陰影,爭取獨立自主、不應再依靠美國力量的看法已經冒升。

美國對拉美的盲點有兩方面:第一,視歐洲為聯盟,認為不會向明知是美國保護區的拉美索取利益,但是,歐洲在希臘債務危機之前已經有商界以推動大型企業發展的姿態走進拉美,開始出現了拉美樂於傾斜歐洲的局面,這樣的局面反過來又促動來自歐洲的經濟勢力,令其只會增強而不會減弱。雖然英國和阿根廷受困於福克蘭群島問題,關係一直處緊張狀態,即使歐洲在阿根廷人印象中被視為「侵略者」角色,但不代表拉美其他國家也與阿根廷持同樣的心態。拉美各國向來所懷的是「各掃門前雪」心態,只要有利可圖,一般不會為了他國與歐洲的緊張關係而樂於主動獻身以維持平衡。第二,亞洲此前向拉美展開經濟攻勢,表現最強烈的是日本。日本在拉美已擁有不少包括汽車和電器類等大型的高端生產項目,日本佔據拉美市場的份額較美國還要高。此外,韓國也不甘後人,現代集團在拉美可以說已有了一席重要位置,韓國的汽車及電器產品採取與日本產品對著幹的姿態,而且打價格戰。韓國看到了開拓拉美市場的一個關鍵因素是價格是否低廉,因此,打進拉美市場後,韓國便打價格牌,切中拉美市場的要害,令其發展勢頭凌厲。除此之外,中國走進拉美採取的是經貿與投資互動的做法,拉美國家看到了互利好處,中國在拉美的崛起同樣被視為一股影響甚大的力量。

歐亞夾攻美國受損

有人認為,美國對拉美的評估一直處於上世紀七八十年代的狀況,其實不對,白宮對拉美的評估,在九十年代末期因應對查韋斯的異動而有了一系列變化,那時美國因為不能容忍查韋斯的不斷挑釁,打算繼續培植反對派把查韋斯趕下台,但不成功。之後因為膠著於伊拉克及阿富汗的戰事,加上牛仔總統小布什的強硬對外政策牽制,美國必然要把重點放在焦點戰場上,令美國認為拉美的異動還不致影響到後院安全,放緩了對查韋斯的圍剿行動。

及至今年初,美國又高調與哥倫比亞展開軍事合作,派出軍隊進駐哥倫比亞,刻意亮出針對委內瑞拉之劍,才令外界意識到美國在拉美問題上已經開始走重新控制的道路。原因在於既看到查韋斯對美國的反叛行為愈來愈激烈,也看到巴西大有失控的危機,希望在對待兩者採取強硬和懷柔的策略之下,達到打壓查韋斯氣焰和遏制巴西總統盧拉的作用。實際上,巴西在與查韋斯的合作上也留著後步,盧拉既與查韋斯在反對強權的調子上唱和,但又經常表現「金磚四國」成員的高姿態。這種左右搖擺不定的心態,正好符合美國以打擊查韋斯警告盧拉的需要,令盧拉與美國對抗的態度不可能像查韋斯那樣激烈。

美國前高官的撰文還顯示了商界對拉美利益受損的擔憂。文中舉例指出,印度隨著製造業的不斷增長,在尋求產品外銷之下,拉美便成為傾銷產品的新目標,而且採取了與韓國一樣的策略,以低廉價格打進拉美,走薄利多銷、拓展市場份額的道路,令印度產品在拉美有了一定市場。面對歐亞對拉美的夾攻,爭奪拉美市場日見激烈,自然明顯損害美國原來獨佔拉美市場的利益,加上查韋斯不斷掀起的政治挑戰,才令美國感受到再不理會後院安全問題,總有一天會出現後院難以打救的失火局面。

美須正視拉美變化

不過,如果從另外一個角度看問題,拉美在世界變革的大潮流之中,不可能因循守舊,一成不變,跟著美國的調子起舞。查韋斯從政治角度挑戰美國,盧拉則從經濟角度與美國時有唱對台戲的表現,加上玻利維亞、厄瓜多爾及阿根廷等窮、小國家的呼應,說明拉美在感受世界變革中已經有了異動,只不過要一時凝成一股團結的力量還難。難的原因在於拉美各國看重本身利益難以整合而形成一股共同對外的力量。但是,既然這樣的求變心態已經形成,套句「星星之火,可以燎原」來形容,就會有實現的一天。

這位撰文的 美國前高官,就是感受到美國長期對拉美策略的僵化,可能導致最終失去拉美這個後院而提出警告。但是,以奧巴馬的執政團隊而言,似乎依然認為美國目前對拉美還有頗強的影響力,而且強化控制拉美也未必符合美國的眼前利益,且必須花費一番不小氣力。因此,這樣的言論所起的只是警鐘作用,美國面對拉美的變化,看來非到出現極端局面不會認真處理。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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1 COMMENT

  1. The problem is the U.S. (as well as many European countries) is run by corporate interests, so when the people of any country vote in a Hugo Chavez, we act as though it’s a terrible thing…when we SHOULD simply accept the new freely-elected government, and deal with them as we would anyone else.

    We have 30 years of Reaganomics pulling the strings of Washington, and it will take time to cut those strings, as well as time to make the American people see what has been going on…that we have become a machine, operating to increase the influence of overly-monied corporate interests & the super-rich, instead of a country dealing with other countries fairly, and to the benefit of all concerned.

    Hopefully, as people become more aware of how they’ve been used, we will see a final end to the rule of insane greed & the desire of some to elevate themselves above all others to the point of the kings & queens of old…and we’ll see the end of the U.S. being used to “strong-arm” other countries into working for the benefit of these monied interests.

    Perhaps then, Latin America will not be open to “influence” by anybody.