Sino-U.S. Competition Requires a New, Extended Battle

At present, any ideas of direct conflict and confrontation with the U.S. are all childish and silly. I think that taking evasive action is still the best option for Beijing. However, this is not being negative. Instead, it is in China’s best interest, in as far as this strategy proves to be beneficial, reasonable and controlled in relation to the stage of competition between China and America. The Anti-Japanese War lasted eight years. I believe that it will take at least 30 to 50 years for China to win this new, extended battle.

China fought the eight-year war and won a total victory in the war against aggression for the first time since the 18th century. What was the Chinese people’s ideological weapon? It was the great strategy of extended battle presented by Mao Zedong. On the 65th anniversary of the great victory of the Anti-Japanese War, intelligent Chinese people must reconsider this strong ideological weapon.

Currently, with its peaceful rise, China wants to bring about a great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by the middle of the century. However, a peaceful rise does not mean a smooth rise. The world’s number one power will definitely present all sorts of obstacles. When breaking through these difficulties one by one, the Chinese people must envision the concept of a new, protracted battle.

The U.S.-South Korea Joint Naval Exercise Targets China

Although the U.S. stated that the 7th Fleet’s nuclear aircraft carrier, the “George Washington,” is not scheduled to join the joint U.S.-South Korea exercise slated for September — and the “Washington” is not in the Yellow Sea — America announced that the “Washington” will still eventually enter that area. Prior to that, the U.S. fleet led by the “Washington” visited the South China Sea twice, then turned north to the East Sea and the Yellow Sea. Everyone knows about its obvious intention.

I do not think China and America have entered a cold war period. Overly pessimistic judgment of the situation will shake the strategy for China's peaceful rise. However, China’s peaceful rise is certainly not going to be smooth. No doubt, there will be conflicts, containment and anti-aggression. On the road of advancement, China will constantly face new, rigorous challenges, which can at times be extremely intense.

It may not be appropriate to compare the challenges for a peaceful rise of China with the difficulties experienced during the eight-year Anti-Japanese War. However, we can be sure that whatever challenges we may face, spirit is what we need first instead of material resources. We need a strong ideological weapon. When we are commemorating the victory of the Anti-Japanese War, we naturally think of Mao Zedong’s book, "On Protracted War." He criticized the theory of national subjugation, believing that Japan would lose, and China would win. Meanwhile, he also criticized the theory of quick victory, believing that China could not beat powerful Japan just through one battle. Instead, it would be a long war of winning through small victories and turning weakness to strength. History has proven it a clever strategy. Therefore, when we face the challenges from the most powerful country in the world at the moment, do we also need a new strategy of protracted war? The answer is yes.

In the face of new challenges, China must not run away. It must take action. It must not be anxious, thinking that it has to win by one battle at the critical moment. Some intelligent people from mainland China said that America does not have enough power to engage all the countries — for example, Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea and China. Some angry young people from the mainland also said that China should send an aircraft-carrier killer to warn America, if the “Washington” enters the Yellow Sea. Of course, it is childish to say that. It is in line with international law for the U.S. fleet to exercise in the open sea. If you shoot missiles around them, it might spark a conflict accidentally. What is more, this aggressive act will not gain any support from the international community. Regarding the statement of America not having enough power to do whatever it wants, they have not fully realized the strength of the American forces, nor have they seen the U.S. hawks’ trap that “war can stimulate the economy.”

America is financially exhausted by the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. In addition, other factors, such as the financial tsunami, continue to hinder America’s ability to get out of its economic slump. Obama is facing the challenge of the midterm election. It is not surprising that the “war-can-stimulate-the-economy” view comes up. Some people believe that America is winning in the current limited conflicts with China. First, the U.S. commands an overwhelming position in the battle of sea, air, missiles and information technology. In a limited conflict — for example, the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999 — America remained dominant. Second, once America has the upper hand, it will certainly strengthen its dominant position in Asia and the whole world. Third, America has historically made financial gains by launching wars. A limited conflict will play the role of an engine in America’s gloomy economy.

Best Strategy: Avoid America

At present, any ideas of direct conflict and confrontation with the U.S. are all childish and silly. I think that taking evasive action is still the best option for Beijing. Take another look at America’s GDP, which is more than three times that of China’s. America’s scientific and technological strength includes financial and national investment. The gap between China and America is still huge; in the field of nuclear weapons, China is nowhere close to America. Therefore, Beijing can only tolerate some of America’s behavior. China needs time. Time will make a difference.

This tolerance is certainly not negative. Instead, it is in China’s best interest, in as far as this strategy proves to be beneficial, reasonable and controlled in relating to the stage of competition between China and America. The Anti-Japanese War lasted eight years. I believe that it will take at least 30 to 50 years for China to win this new extended battle.