The American–Iranian Chess Game and the Turkish Knight

The U.S.–EU–Israel alliance against Iran reminds one of the Cold War period for some reasons. The “you’re-either-with-us-or-against-us” style of thinking still dominates Washington. And this mentality brings Turkey into the picture as well.

Ankara’s reluctance to take precautions and actions against Tehran creates an impression in Washington similar to the one a pro-communist block country generated during the Cold War. This is the reason, I believe, for the prevalence of a suspicious and even hostile atmosphere in the U.S. against Turkey these days. Turkey’s policy toward Iran troubles the U.S. far more than the recent nosedive in Turkish–Israeli relations and the “Islamist roots” of the AK Party.

Intelligence and propaganda were utilized to fight communism during the Cold War. In this vein, those who link the origins of Stuxnet, the new virus attacking Iran’s nuclear program, to the U.S. and/or Israel are on the right track. It is also useful to view from this perspective the recent publications in the West that attack Turkey. An example par excellence of such a sinister operation was carried out lately via Reuters. Reuters published some analyses and findings that claimed Turkey was helping Iran to soften the impact of U.N. sanctions on the latter. But I wonder where Reuters got those findings and how they reached those analyses. According to the reporter, they used “classified reports” and conducted “interviews with Western diplomats, government and intelligence officials.” Obviously, someone initiated an intelligence operation to amplify the extant pressure on Turkey. (I would also like to note that “Western diplomats” is often used in diplomatic journalism to disguise American news sources.)

Turkey’s “no” vote at the U.N. Security Council against sanctions on Iran and its declaration that although it will apply the U.N. sanctions as necessitated by the international law, it will not enforce unilateral American sanctions, seem to have rang the bell for some in Washington. A group of officials from the U.S. Treasury and the Pentagon visited Turkey last August and asked Turkey to distance itself from financial and banking practices that benefited Iran and asked the Turkish government to also suggest that the private sector do the same. Yet, their requests were not received very well. We curiously observed, not long after, the appearance of some intelligence reports and analyses that claimed Turkey was assisting Iran to sidestep the impact of sanctions.

The American Congress is performing its role in operations against Iran as well. Now that some Jewish groups have joined the already hostile Armenian and Greek lobbies, Turkey will be more vulnerable to being easily targeted in the American Congress. Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer and Republican Sen. Jon Kyle, his party's No. 2 leader in the chamber, called on [Secretary of State Hillary] Clinton, for instance, to "promptly" enforce a U.S. law aimed at denying Iran access to world gasoline markets. Two U.S. senators have urged Clinton to punish Turkish and Chinese companies — including Turkish refiner Tüpraş — for reportedly providing Iran with refined petroleum products.

Receiving the message from Congress, the Obama administration announced the first foreign company to be penalized in the spirit of that law. The State Department placed the Naftiran Intertrade Company, a subsidiary of Iran's national oil company, on a financial blacklist, barring it from doing business with or in the United States or with U.S. institutions. American officials said that the administration was launching investigations into a number of other foreign firms that had not yet pledged to stop business in Iran, which could lead to sanctions. So Turkey or Tupras were not mentioned officially yet, which conforms to the American administration’s strategy of not confronting Turkey directly. This means that the U.S. will not resort to sticks in its relations with Turkey unless they would feel too forced to, but they will keep showing us the stick at the same time. In the meantime, the Pentagon explained that Tupras had informed them last August that they had terminated their gas contracts with Iran.

The official stance in Ankara is not to directly suggest anything to companies doing trade — or to private Turkish banks doing business — with Iran. They are leaving the decision to the private sector. The Americans, however, retain their Cold War mentality and have noted Ankara’s stance.

Washington is also troubled with Turkey’s importation of Iranian natural gas and the possibility that the volume of this transaction might continue to grow. Ankara’s resistance to the American plan to install part of the missile defense system in Turkey against possible Iranian threats to the West also fuels American concern. The Pentagon hopes that Turkey will flash the green light to its proposal before the NATO summit in November. In short, the tight circle drawn around Turkey due to issues related to Iran has been shrinking.

It would be misleading, though, to read the U.S. focus on Iran as the outcome of pressure from Israeli and some Jewish groups. For strategic- and prestige-related reasons, scoring victory in their struggle with Iran over the latter’s nuclear program is very important for the U.S. and the West in the global struggle for power. The U.S. wants to beat Iran on the chessboard, but the Turkish knight blocks its way to make its move. It wants to remove the knight, but the knight resists. Iran, an expert in chess, would take a step back as soon as it sees that there is no countermove left to make. Leaving everything aside, my concern is that the knight does not inflict any harm.