Obama Must Focus on Recovering the Economy

Published in China Daily News
(Taiwan) on 6 November 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Alice Cwern. Edited by Heidi Kaufmann.
As the Democrats failed to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives, and considering their weakened status in the Senate, President Barack Obama has invited the Republicans to the White House for a meeting on Nov. 18 to consolidate a plan for the two parties to collaborate.

Obama has admitted that the Democrats were “defeated” in the midterm elections; hence, it is necessary for him to work with the Republicans. However, the effectiveness of the collaboration is still in question. Although the Republicans have won, they still have less than two-thirds of the seats in the House; on the other hand, the Democrats happened to maintain the majority in the Senate, although they lost a lot of seats. It is more likely for the two parties to remain in a deadlock.

Nevertheless, the economic crisis is a topic that the two parties cannot ignore. It was obvious that the defect of the Democrats in the midterm elections was due to Obama’s failure to fix the economy after the financial crisis. The results of a survey, performed right at the exits of the polling stations, truly reflected most voters’ feelings: Through this election, they wanted to express their worries about the economy and their dissatisfaction toward the Obama administration. Of the participants, 88 percent thought that the economy was in bad shape and were worried the problem would persist through the upcoming year; half of them were, in fact, “extremely worried.” The public survey also showed that two-thirds of the voters cast their votes only based on their concerns regarding the economy, and of that group 53 percent supported the Republicans, while 44 percent supported the Democrats.

Although the majority of the voters decided to hand the House over to the Republicans, according to the survey, it was not, however, because they supported the Republicans. It was merely an act to express their dissatisfaction toward the federal government. Most of them did not agree with the direction of the federal government; 25 percent said they were angry, and close to 75 percent disliked the current Congress. In other words, to a lot of voters, both Democrats and Republicans are “bad apples,” but they had no choice but to pick one.

Two years ago, Obama became president with his slogan of “change,” and Democrats took over both the House and the Senate. Right now, he is facing pressure to change his course. Democrats and Republicans disagree on most of the major issues. For example, Republicans are totally opposed to Obama’s health care reform and demand for it to be abandoned. They also object to the White House increasing government expenses and the deficit; meanwhile, they demand tax cuts and a smaller government. The rising Tea Party is also on the same page. Therefore, it will not be easy for the two parties to compromise on the major issues.

While facing these difficulties, President Obama will need to get out of the dead end he is in at all costs within the remaining two years. In the history of America, presidents such as Ronald Regan and Bill Clinton lost the midterm elections during their presidency and managed to make comebacks while their parties were the minority in Congress. However, it was only because they fixed the economy.

During the first two years of his presidency, Obama put too much energy into health care reform. Although he managed to get the bill passed, he was completely drained. Whether he totally ignored the issues on the economy and unemployment, or was just too busy working on other issues, he failed to pull America’s economy out of the bottom in the past two years.

The unemployment rate remains high (it has almost reached 10 percent), and a lot of people can no longer afford their mortgages and rents. With the uncertain recovery of the economy, it is understandable that people’s worries and resentment toward the government are rising.

Some people suggested that since things would not go smoothly in Congress, Obama should attempt to find a way out through foreign affairs. It may be feasible; however, in order for it to work, overseas achievements still must meet the needs of the American people. There is actually only one path for Obama to take: He must find a light of hope for the economy within the next two years.

Hence, he should rethink his strategy of manipulating the money in the Federal Reserve. Without a system to control the outflow of the currency, the recent second round of the quantitative easing not only brought pressure to devalue the U.S. dollar, but countries outside of the United States also worried that it will create global excess liquidity, excess hot money, currency appreciation, inflation and bubbles to the stock market. Not many choices are left for Obama; in the next two years he must focus all his resources on fixing the economy, or he will not be able to make a comeback in 2012.






聯合早報社論----奧巴馬須專注于振興經濟
http://www.cdnews.com.tw 2010-11-06 09:31:14

 隨著民主黨在國會中期選舉後失去眾議院控制權,加上在參議院的多數黨地位被削弱,奧巴馬總統已邀請共和黨人本月18日到白宮會談,討論雙方可在今年剩餘的國會會期中合作完成的事項。奧巴馬承認,民主黨在中期選舉“慘敗”,因此,設法和共和黨人達致妥協,是他不得不做的事。不過,這樣的協商能否產生什麼效果,卻是一個很大的問號。共和黨人大捷,但在眾議院並沒有佔據三分之二的優勢,而民主黨雖然保住了參議院,卻大大減少了多數。兩黨角力,僵持不下,是更可能出現的局面。

 但美國當前所面對的重大經濟課題,卻是民主和共和兩黨都不能不正視的。大家心知肚明,民主黨這回慘敗,主要就是奧巴馬政府無法處理好金融風暴後的美國經濟頹局。投票站出口民意調查的結果,相當真實地反映了大多數選民的心態。他們所要表達的,是對經濟走勢的憂慮,以及對奧巴馬政府政績的不滿。 88%的受訪者認為,國家經濟糟糕,他們擔心明年經濟的走勢,半數的人甚至表示“非常擔心”。  民調也顯示,近三分之二的投票者把經濟列為唯一的考慮因素,他們對共和黨和民主黨眾議員的支持比率為53%對44%。

  雖然多數選民把眾議院的控制權交給了共和黨,但他們在受訪問時多表示,這並非因為他們真的喜歡或支持共和黨,而是宣洩對聯邦政府的不滿情緒。他們絕大多數不滿意政府的治國方式,四分之一以上的人表示憤怒,近四分之三的人對國會不滿。換言之,在許多選民心目中,民主共和都是爛蘋果,他們作了無可奈何的選擇。

  兩年前,奧巴馬以“改變”(change)為號召上臺,民主黨也一舉奪下參眾兩院的控制權。如今,他面對的卻是“改道”(change course)的呼聲和壓力。民主共和兩黨在一些主要政策上有很大的分歧,比方,共和黨人極力反對奧巴馬的醫改法,甚至恫言要廢除這道法令。他們也反對白宮一而再地增加財政開支和赤字預算,要求減稅和小政府,在這方面,新起的“茶黨”更是不斷的推波助瀾 。因此,民主共和兩黨要在重大的國內議程上取得妥協並不容易。

  面對這樣的窘境,奧巴馬總統在剩下的兩年任期內,無論如何都必須傾全力突圍。在他之前,其實也有在任總統在中期選舉中吃敗仗的先例,其中包括雷根和克林頓。兩人都在本黨在國會處於弱勢的情況下翻身,而訣竅正是復蘇經濟。奧巴馬上任頭兩年把太多的精力投注在醫改上,結果法案雖然通過,但卻已精疲力竭。更糟糕的當然是因忽略或無法全力兼顧經濟和就業問題,兩年來始終無法使美國經濟擺脫低迷狀態。失業率居高不下(現在已接近10%),許多人因此還不起房貸和租金,加之看不到經濟復蘇的前景,焦慮和怨懟之情迅速滋長是可以理解的。

  有人說,面對國內議程難以繼續推進的困境,奧巴馬可能轉而在外交上找出路,這固然是一種可能,但外交上的成就也必須能服務於國內政治的需要才行。擺在奧巴馬前面的路其實只有一條:設法在剩餘的兩年內,儘快讓經濟露出曙光。為此,一味試圖用聯邦儲備局的貨幣手段來解決經濟問題的做法顯然也有改道的必要。聯儲局剛拋出的第二輪所謂“量化寬鬆”貨幣措施,在沒有可控制資金外流機制的情況下,其實只有增加美元貶值的壓力,並給其他國家帶來流動性過剩、熱錢湧入、貨幣升值、通貨膨脹,以及資產和股市泡沫化的憂慮。奧巴馬已經沒有什麼選擇,它必須調動所有的力量在接下來的兩年裏搞好經濟,否則2012年他可能就翻不了身了。
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