Afghanistan: The Beginning of the End?

Published in Le Figaro
(France) on 4 May 2011
by Pierre Rousselin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Erin Summers. Edited by Sam Carter.
Does the United States believe that it has accomplished the essential part of its agenda in Afghanistan, which was set the day after 9/11, following the elimination of bin Laden? This question is misleading because it overlooks the need to strengthen the Afghan government in order for it to extend its control over the entire country. Nevertheless, this question sums up the new climate in which the debate over the presence of allied troops in Afghanistan is going to take place.

The figure of bin Laden had gained such symbolic importance that his death changes the perception of what is at stake and could lead to a change in the allied objectives in Kabul. As a presidential campaign approaches, Barack Obama could benefit from the situation by accelerating the withdrawal of troops, which should take place between this July and 2014. The death of bin Laden would therefore be the beginning of the end of the war in Afghanistan.

But what is still needed is a political settlement and that a number of Taliban agree to it. Above all, Pakistan needs to contribute more than it has done so far in the fight against al-Qaida and the war in Afghanistan. The sanctuary bin Laden found for five years, in the shadow of the Pakistani “Saint-Cyr,” proves the extent to which Pakistan has become a problem as serious as Afghanistan.


L'élimination de Ben Laden va-t-elle conduire les États-Unis à considérer qu'ils ont accompli en Afghanistan l'essentiel de la mission qu'ils s'étaient fixée au lendemain des attentats du 11 septembre 2001 ? Cette question est trompeuse parce qu'elle occulte la nécessité de consolider le gouvernement afghan afin qu'il puisse étendre son contrôle à l'ensemble du pays. Elle résume toutefois le nouveau climat dans lequel va se dérouler le débat sur la présence des troupes alliées en Afghanistan.

Le personnage de Ben Laden avait acquis une telle importance symbolique que sa disparition modifie la perception des enjeux et pourrait amener à redéfinir les objectifs alliés à Kaboul. A l'approche d'une campagne électorale, Barack Obama pourrait profiter des circonstances pour accélérer un retrait qui doit s'étaler de juillet prochain à 2014. La mort de Ben Laden serait alors le début de la fin de la guerre en Afghanistan.

Encore faut-il qu'un règlement politique se dessine et qu'une fraction des talibans se prête au jeu. Il faut surtout que le Pakistan collabore davantage à la solution qu'il ne l'a fait jusqu'ici dans la lutte contre al-Qaida et dans la guerre afghane. Le sanctuaire trouvé pendant cinq ans par Ben Laden, à l'ombre du « Saint-Cyr » pakistanais, montre à quel point le Pakistan est devenu un problème aussi grave que l'Afghanistan.
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