America Will Still Be the Only Superpower for the Next 20 Years
Published in Xinhua
(China) on 2 August 2011
by Wang Jisi (link to original)
(China) on 2 August 2011
by Wang Jisi (link to original)
Translated from
by Michelle Deeter.
Edited by Hoishan Chan
.
The Main Factors for America’s Strength Will Not Have Changed
In a general sense, if one wants to assess whether in the future America will be able to sustain its powerful strength (and not its relative international status compared to other great powers), one must analyze the factors which have historically helped it to become so strong and see if they have fundamentally changed. I believe that there are four kinds of internal factors that have helped America to become a strong country:
First, legal traditions and the rule of law help preserve the long-term political stability of the country. One of the founding principles of the United States is a legal system that rules according to law and not according to a person’s whim. It is the most fundamental institutional safeguard which has preserved the government and long-term peace, when America has gone from small to large, from weak to strong, from divided to united.
Second, American social values have ensured a high level of compatibility and continuity which preserve the internal cohesion of different ethnic groups and nationalities, while also deepening nationalism. Freedom, democracy, citizen’s rights, the separation of powers, the separation of church and state, a market economy based on inviolable rights to private property, the supreme rule of the Constitution and others: These make up the core value system accepted by all citizens; they go beyond boundaries of government, religion, class and ethnicity. This set of beliefs ensures America’s social cohesion and the unity of the nation. Even after many waves of immigrants are accepted in the nation, these beliefs do not waver.
Third, technological institutional innovations have provided a strong impetus for social development. The U.S. attaches great importance to having national higher level education reform and innovation as well as attracting excellent foreign talent. It has created an ideal national innovation system which is supported by government, business, and social organizations (represented by foundations and non-profit organizations). Institutional innovation is not only apparent in education, science and technology; it is also visible in the creative industry, social sciences, policy institutions and many other areas.
Fourth, civil society is developed, while social self-correction mechanisms and social ability are fairly strong, which helped keep America on the right track during its development and avoid serious strategic errors in foreign relations. America is the only modern superpower first made up of a society and only later a government. A flourishing civil society allowed America to implement gradual improvement from the bottom up. This allowed social conflicts to be resolved, crises to be resolved, and allowed society to develop in a way that was appropriate for economic development and social justice.
It is undeniable that for a long time, America has had many serious issues that are difficult to regulate. This includes capitalism’s corruption of society, the gap between the rich and the poor, factionalism within political parties, the corruption of officials, racial conflict, religious crises, all kinds of social diseases, the decline of government authority, America’s playing the role of a savior in its foreign policy and other issues. However, the four groups of factors that have helped America become powerful and prosperous have not fundamentally changed.
America’s Competitive Edge is Making a Recovery
Among those who observe America’s rising and falling, very few people consider its natural endowment and the foundation of its strength. Whether or not America’s strength will last for the long run depends to a great degree on whether it can make the correct strategic decisions. In 2009, after President Barack Obama came into office, his administration started a series of strategies and policies with the intention of helping America regain its strength and status. The Obama administration’s domestic policies for development emphasized the following things: improvement of energy saving and environmentally friendly basic infrastructure on a large scale, increasing investment for research and development, developing clean energies, improving the education infrastructure, popularizing the use of broadband Internet, cutting taxes for 95 percent of households, expanding health care coverage, decreasing the deficit, loosening the immigration policy, among other aspects. There was much determination and strength to rally the forces again. But Obama’s plans for economic recovery and social change did not have a large effect, and there was unending controversy surrounding his proposals. However, America’s plans for change remained the same.
On the whole, America’s global reform strategy has been consistent with its domestic reform strategy. The focal point of the Obama administration in international affairs was to move from military security issues, such as counterterrorism and nuclear nonproliferation, to economic security issues, such as protecting global financial stability and facilitating the recovery of the world economy. This signifies that the Obama administration needs to spend most of its energy on domestic issues and trim the budget for foreign aid and national defense.
“Smart power” has already become Obama’s foreign relations strategy’s guiding philosophy. The American government no longer declares extremist Islamist powers as its main enemy, and no longer mentions “the war on terror” and “preemptive action.” American security strategy still focuses on the Middle East, although the U.S. policy to return to Asia is still an inevitable trend. America still highly values nuclear safety, even though it is willing to accept a multi-polar economic situation, it is striving to maintain an unrivaled military for the long term. In terms of foreign policy and diplomacy, the U.S. is trying to develop “smart power” to make up for the deficiencies of hard power.
The major changes from the former administration’s policies implemented by the Obama administration prove that, compared with the strength America had at the turn of the century, its power and status have visibly declined. This is true even though American officials are not willing to admit it. At the same time, a few indicators show that America’s economic competitive ability, social vitality and technological innovation are all starting to recover, which proves that America’s self-correcting ability is very strong.
America Is on a Plateau
Theories have been going around about America’s rise and fall for half a century — it looks like they will continue to go around for another half century. Chinese scholars and media have often revealed a bias in their assessments of American strength and status. Their bias basically stems from underestimating America’s strength, power and its correction ability, and overestimating the difficulties America faces internally and externally. This is because Chinese scholars and the Chinese media do not understand the importance of the inherent ability of American governance to correct its own behavior. Of course, there is reason to believe that the rise of a new great power is inevitable. But it is easier to make predictions about a new rising power than it is to make predictions about America. For this reason, even though the new rising power is quickly going to surpass America in a few areas, observers must still be cautious.
If one surveys history, one can draw the following conclusions: First of all, in terms of the country’s natural endowments and developmental potential, America is not even close to reaching the limits of its power. Rich natural resources and an advantageous geographical location make up the “hard environment.” An immigrant nation and an ability to attract talent, the rule of law, mechanisms for innovation, liberal values, the separation of power, checks and balances in government, federalism, complementary mainstream culture and diverse cultures, the gradual improvement of society, freedom of speech, a tolerance for criticism, a vast middle class, a relatively open domestic market and powerful overseas expansion are the elements that make up America’s “soft environment.” These hard and soft environments have not experienced major changes; therefore, America still has a huge potential to develop.
Second, in a horizontal comparison, U.S. economic strength, military strength, technological strength and other hard indicators are going to continue to rise, while the democratic legal system and core values are going to basically stay the same. Education levels and social cohesion might decrease slightly due to the influx of more immigrants, but civil society will still remain vigorous. Trends of social thought and the political pendulum are swinging from a right-wing conservative position to a more moderate position.
Third, in a vertical comparison, America’s status as the only superpower will not change in the next 20 to 30 years. America’s relative power has already reached its peak in world history, but a more appropriate metaphor would be a plateau, which has dips and bumps on its surface. As to the length of time that America can stay on top of the plateau before it starts sliding downhill with no way of going back, any prediction will lack hard evidence. Scholars should avoid drawing the conclusion that America is going to fall from its peak according to the trends of one or two years or the occurrences of one or two major events. China’s economic strength might surpass that of America in the next 10 years or so, but its comprehensive strength will still be far behind that of America. Moreover, China’s road to development has many more undetermined factors. All of the rising developing countries still do not have enough power to control America and the Western world, not to mention to alter world order or the conditions on which it is run.
Fourth, America’s domestic policy and global strategy are experiencing huge changes that will help its economy recover, correct the imbalances in its social development, increase its soft power and protect its international status. But the strength of right-wing conservatives within the country and enormous financial corporations has a hindering effect on these positive changes. Whether or not America is able to make its global strategy more farsighted, so that it can cooperate with other major powers and create a more equitable and reasonable international governance mechanism, depends not only on America itself, but is also linked to its interaction in global political and economic trends, as well as how other countries view America’s attitude and policies.
(The author is a professor at the Peking University School of International Studies.)
In a general sense, if one wants to assess whether in the future America will be able to sustain its powerful strength (and not its relative international status compared to other great powers), one must analyze the factors which have historically helped it to become so strong and see if they have fundamentally changed. I believe that there are four kinds of internal factors that have helped America to become a strong country:
First, legal traditions and the rule of law help preserve the long-term political stability of the country. One of the founding principles of the United States is a legal system that rules according to law and not according to a person’s whim. It is the most fundamental institutional safeguard which has preserved the government and long-term peace, when America has gone from small to large, from weak to strong, from divided to united.
Second, American social values have ensured a high level of compatibility and continuity which preserve the internal cohesion of different ethnic groups and nationalities, while also deepening nationalism. Freedom, democracy, citizen’s rights, the separation of powers, the separation of church and state, a market economy based on inviolable rights to private property, the supreme rule of the Constitution and others: These make up the core value system accepted by all citizens; they go beyond boundaries of government, religion, class and ethnicity. This set of beliefs ensures America’s social cohesion and the unity of the nation. Even after many waves of immigrants are accepted in the nation, these beliefs do not waver.
Third, technological institutional innovations have provided a strong impetus for social development. The U.S. attaches great importance to having national higher level education reform and innovation as well as attracting excellent foreign talent. It has created an ideal national innovation system which is supported by government, business, and social organizations (represented by foundations and non-profit organizations). Institutional innovation is not only apparent in education, science and technology; it is also visible in the creative industry, social sciences, policy institutions and many other areas.
Fourth, civil society is developed, while social self-correction mechanisms and social ability are fairly strong, which helped keep America on the right track during its development and avoid serious strategic errors in foreign relations. America is the only modern superpower first made up of a society and only later a government. A flourishing civil society allowed America to implement gradual improvement from the bottom up. This allowed social conflicts to be resolved, crises to be resolved, and allowed society to develop in a way that was appropriate for economic development and social justice.
It is undeniable that for a long time, America has had many serious issues that are difficult to regulate. This includes capitalism’s corruption of society, the gap between the rich and the poor, factionalism within political parties, the corruption of officials, racial conflict, religious crises, all kinds of social diseases, the decline of government authority, America’s playing the role of a savior in its foreign policy and other issues. However, the four groups of factors that have helped America become powerful and prosperous have not fundamentally changed.
America’s Competitive Edge is Making a Recovery
Among those who observe America’s rising and falling, very few people consider its natural endowment and the foundation of its strength. Whether or not America’s strength will last for the long run depends to a great degree on whether it can make the correct strategic decisions. In 2009, after President Barack Obama came into office, his administration started a series of strategies and policies with the intention of helping America regain its strength and status. The Obama administration’s domestic policies for development emphasized the following things: improvement of energy saving and environmentally friendly basic infrastructure on a large scale, increasing investment for research and development, developing clean energies, improving the education infrastructure, popularizing the use of broadband Internet, cutting taxes for 95 percent of households, expanding health care coverage, decreasing the deficit, loosening the immigration policy, among other aspects. There was much determination and strength to rally the forces again. But Obama’s plans for economic recovery and social change did not have a large effect, and there was unending controversy surrounding his proposals. However, America’s plans for change remained the same.
On the whole, America’s global reform strategy has been consistent with its domestic reform strategy. The focal point of the Obama administration in international affairs was to move from military security issues, such as counterterrorism and nuclear nonproliferation, to economic security issues, such as protecting global financial stability and facilitating the recovery of the world economy. This signifies that the Obama administration needs to spend most of its energy on domestic issues and trim the budget for foreign aid and national defense.
“Smart power” has already become Obama’s foreign relations strategy’s guiding philosophy. The American government no longer declares extremist Islamist powers as its main enemy, and no longer mentions “the war on terror” and “preemptive action.” American security strategy still focuses on the Middle East, although the U.S. policy to return to Asia is still an inevitable trend. America still highly values nuclear safety, even though it is willing to accept a multi-polar economic situation, it is striving to maintain an unrivaled military for the long term. In terms of foreign policy and diplomacy, the U.S. is trying to develop “smart power” to make up for the deficiencies of hard power.
The major changes from the former administration’s policies implemented by the Obama administration prove that, compared with the strength America had at the turn of the century, its power and status have visibly declined. This is true even though American officials are not willing to admit it. At the same time, a few indicators show that America’s economic competitive ability, social vitality and technological innovation are all starting to recover, which proves that America’s self-correcting ability is very strong.
America Is on a Plateau
Theories have been going around about America’s rise and fall for half a century — it looks like they will continue to go around for another half century. Chinese scholars and media have often revealed a bias in their assessments of American strength and status. Their bias basically stems from underestimating America’s strength, power and its correction ability, and overestimating the difficulties America faces internally and externally. This is because Chinese scholars and the Chinese media do not understand the importance of the inherent ability of American governance to correct its own behavior. Of course, there is reason to believe that the rise of a new great power is inevitable. But it is easier to make predictions about a new rising power than it is to make predictions about America. For this reason, even though the new rising power is quickly going to surpass America in a few areas, observers must still be cautious.
If one surveys history, one can draw the following conclusions: First of all, in terms of the country’s natural endowments and developmental potential, America is not even close to reaching the limits of its power. Rich natural resources and an advantageous geographical location make up the “hard environment.” An immigrant nation and an ability to attract talent, the rule of law, mechanisms for innovation, liberal values, the separation of power, checks and balances in government, federalism, complementary mainstream culture and diverse cultures, the gradual improvement of society, freedom of speech, a tolerance for criticism, a vast middle class, a relatively open domestic market and powerful overseas expansion are the elements that make up America’s “soft environment.” These hard and soft environments have not experienced major changes; therefore, America still has a huge potential to develop.
Second, in a horizontal comparison, U.S. economic strength, military strength, technological strength and other hard indicators are going to continue to rise, while the democratic legal system and core values are going to basically stay the same. Education levels and social cohesion might decrease slightly due to the influx of more immigrants, but civil society will still remain vigorous. Trends of social thought and the political pendulum are swinging from a right-wing conservative position to a more moderate position.
Third, in a vertical comparison, America’s status as the only superpower will not change in the next 20 to 30 years. America’s relative power has already reached its peak in world history, but a more appropriate metaphor would be a plateau, which has dips and bumps on its surface. As to the length of time that America can stay on top of the plateau before it starts sliding downhill with no way of going back, any prediction will lack hard evidence. Scholars should avoid drawing the conclusion that America is going to fall from its peak according to the trends of one or two years or the occurrences of one or two major events. China’s economic strength might surpass that of America in the next 10 years or so, but its comprehensive strength will still be far behind that of America. Moreover, China’s road to development has many more undetermined factors. All of the rising developing countries still do not have enough power to control America and the Western world, not to mention to alter world order or the conditions on which it is run.
Fourth, America’s domestic policy and global strategy are experiencing huge changes that will help its economy recover, correct the imbalances in its social development, increase its soft power and protect its international status. But the strength of right-wing conservatives within the country and enormous financial corporations has a hindering effect on these positive changes. Whether or not America is able to make its global strategy more farsighted, so that it can cooperate with other major powers and create a more equitable and reasonable international governance mechanism, depends not only on America itself, but is also linked to its interaction in global political and economic trends, as well as how other countries view America’s attitude and policies.
(The author is a professor at the Peking University School of International Studies.)