Trump Is Shielding America*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Political analyst Gevorg Mirzayan discusses whether the Golden Dome project will become a triumph for the head of the White House.

Donald Trump announced his intent to cover the U.S. (as well as Canada, since “they’re asking”) with the Golden Dome. That’s indeed the name of the project of the American missile defense system. “Golden Dome stands as a layered defense shield, safeguarding the American homeland with unwavering precision, ensuring the security and resilience of our nation,” says the Lockheed Martin corporation website. [https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/missile-defense/golden-dome-missile-defense.html][mb]

And, of course, this project is being presented as Trump’s brainchild. Like his personal Giza pyramids, his Colossus of Rhodes.

“I promised the American people that I would build a cutting-edge missile defense shield to protect our homeland from the threat of foreign missile attack,” the American leader stated. According to him, “Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world and even if they’re launched from space.” [https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/20/trump-says-us-will-put-weapons-in-space-as-part-of-golden-dome-plan][mb]

This project itself is indeed colossal. More than 100 air defense systems and other arms systems will be united under the dome, a part of which is already being developed by the Pentagon and private contractors. “This is a Manhattan Project-scale mission, one that is both urgent and crucial to America’s security,” Lockheed Martin noted, a corporation that (like many other contractors) plans to make billions off this project. [https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/missile-defense/golden-dome-missile-defense.html][mb]

There will be enough budget for everyone. According to Trump, the project will cost approximately $175 billion. It’ll be overseen by General Michael Guetlein, the second vice chief of space operations. Next year’s defense budget has already allocated $25 billion for this system, although the U.S. Congress’ budget management believes that the U.S. will have to spend more than $500 billion over 20 years to develop an effective Golden Dome system. The project is just too large scale, it has to cover too large a territory.

The question is, however — will it truly be able to provide security to America? Probably not. For at least two reasons.

First of all, in the realm of missiles and missile systems, defensive ones are always behind offensive ones. Both in terms of the cost of intercepting (which is often many times higher than the cost of a launched missile — on April 14, 2024, deflecting the mass launch of Iranian not-very-new missiles, Israel used almost $1 billion worth of ammunition) and from the technical standpoint. Missile weapons are being constantly modified — more effective multiple warheads of individual guidance are created, the speed of missiles is increasing (like the hypersonic ones). Missile defense systems are simply lagging behind these innovations. So, in the case of a truly large-scale attack, which superpowers are capable of, their missiles will breach any dome.

Yes, naturally, the Golden Dome apologists can argue that the goal of this system isn’t to protect the country from a nuclear superpower. That the talks about the total unbreakable protection are only required so that investors put money into the system. That its real goal is to protect the U.S. from lesser nuclear states. Current and future ones.

Everybody clearly understands that the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world will be incredibly unstable. Even now a range of countries realize that the era of serious regional clashes for resources, trade routes and spheres of influence is coming. As of today, the only way to protect one’s assets is nuclear weapons. It’s their nuclear arsenal that allows Pakistan to protect itself from a potential Indian attack, and it also remains the guarantor of North Korean survival. It’s unsurprising that many countries will try to obtain such weaponry — Iran might become one of them, for example. And if Tehran is successful in obtaining it, the monarchies of the Persian Gulf will follow suit.

The era of nonproliferation comes to an end, and it’s replaced by a world where nuclear bombs, as well as the means of their delivery, will be owned by even moderately powerful states. And they will pose a threat to superpowers. The Golden Dome will protect the U.S. from them.

But that’s all theory. Because the second reason for the Dome’s foggy prospects is the fact that, protecting America from lesser countries, it sharply raises the threat coming from large ones. A threat fraught with a real nuclear war.

The point is that the peaceful coexistence of nuclear superpowers (that allowed us to refrain from descending into exchanging strikes during the Cold War) is based on several important principles. One of them is the principle of guaranteed mutual destruction. That means that a potential aggressor must be fully aware that, in the case of striking an opponent, this opponent can deliver a responsive destructive strike. That means that this conflict doesn’t, and can’t, have have any winners.

To maintain this 100% assurance of mutual destruction, the leadership of the USSR and the U.S. decided to sign the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 1972 (allowing each other to only have one region protected by missile defense systems). Then, first, George Bush Jr. withdraws from this treaty, then Trump announces a full-scale missile shield. This, no matter what the physicists tell us about the low effectiveness of any missile defense system during a mass launch, leads to a potential aggressor losing that mutual destruction certainty. And that erodes the principles of coexistence.

It’s unsurprising that both Moscow and Beijing are skeptical about this American project. And while Russia tries not to be too harsh a critic about it, China is outraged. For example, according to the Chinese foreign office, the project has a “strong offensive nature,” can escalate the arms race, ultimately undermining global security. Also, finally, it escalates the “militarization of space.” [http://english.scio.gov.cn/pressroom/2025-05/22/content_117888815.html#:~:text=%22That%20gives%20the%20project%20a,control%20system%2C%22%20she%20said.]

This is yet another dimension of the Golden Dome. The project implies deploying interceptors in space that can not only intercept missiles but also, potentially, satellites. And the problem is not that such a strike could strip someone’s intelligence services of its eyes, ears, and guidance systems. If a satellite war breaks out in space, all of humanity risks being kicked back to the pre-satellite era. That means that countries will have to come up with some systems to protect their satellites.

Of course, in theory, all these contradictions, risks and disagreements could be settled during a new “nuclear Yalta conference.” We could come together, develop mutual mechanisms of threat negation, behavior protocols — and ponder collectively how to support the nonproliferation regime. We could explain to other countries the futility and even harm of a nuclear program to their own national interests.

However, such a scenario is impossible in practice. There are too many differences between key nuclear superpowers, and little to no wish to work together. But there’s a possibility that Trump’s Golden Dome public relations project will turn into a colossal pork barrel. Into a project of American private contractors splitting $500 billion between each other. A project that would be shut down either because of a lack of funds or due to groundbreaking new means of destruction emerging.