Marco Rubio, Obama’s Biggest Danger
Even though the presidential primaries are six months away, the debate has already begun over who should be the ideal candidate to be a running mate, demonstrating that the politicians that truly generate enthusiasm among the conservative base are not those who have thrown their hat into the presidential ring. These candidates wait for their turn in 2016.
As mentioned in this blog a few months ago, the new litter of Republican politicians that have appeared on the scene in the post-Bush period is full of talent. Among them are Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal or Nikki Haley. All have the ambition to excel, but the current electoral cycle catches them without much experience in office.
Nevertheless, they could form an excellent tandem with the Republican candidate that wins the primaries, which will probably turn out to be a fight hand-to-hand between Romney and Perry. Of the list of potential vice presidential candidates, one should worry the White House in a very special way: The Hispanic Marco Rubio, senator from Florida.
It is certain that, among the media, the importance of a vice presidential candidate is usually exaggerated. Few voters end up deciding who to vote for based on the running mate. According to the experts, the last vice presidential candidate that was decisive in an election was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1960.
However, Marco Rubio could break this spell of bad luck of unimportant candidates due to his geographic and demographic value and his personal charisma. If one state will be decisive in the 2012 elections it is Florida. Not in vain, there, in the city of Tampa, the Republican Party’s convention will take place.
In the 2008 elections, Obama won by a hair in Florida, and all signs point to a highly competitive election there this time around. Rubio, who prevailed with great clarity in the Senate elections last November — he beat his two adversaries by almost 20 points — could give the nominated Republican the slight push necessary to prevail in the southern state.
In addition to his geographic value, his demographic value is very important due to his Hispanic heritage. It has been repeated on numerous occasions that the Hispanic community was decisive for Obama in 2008. That is true, but only a half-truth. Given his landslide victory, even if Hispanics wouldn’t have mobilized in his favor, he would have won.
However, unless the economy undergoes a rapid change in direction, the next presidential elections will be very competitive, and Hispanics will be indispensible for Obama, above all in Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. And, now, he cannot rely on massive support, as there is major uneasiness over his failure to meet his campaign promise of carrying out immigration reform, and he hasn’t even stopped the deportation of minors.
In this context, Rubio could scrape a key percentage of votes away from Obama. Many Hispanics vote Democratic because they perceive the Republicans as an anti-Hispanic party. The act of selecting a Hispanic as a vice-presidential candidate, something that would be historic, could neutralize that perception for one section of the community.
In addition, unlike other Hispanics like the governor of Nevada, Brian Sandoval, or the governor of New Mexico, Susana Martínez, he has not adopted as hard a posture when it comes to immigration policy.
If Rubio were capable of providing a victory in Florida and various Western states, the Republican triumph would not be guaranteed, but it would leave Obama without a margin of error in the “purple states” — the so-called Midwest states like Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Therefore, if I were an electoral strategist working for Obama I would take the Latino community very, very seriously.
As mentioned in this blog a few months ago, the new litter of Republican politicians that have appeared on the scene in the post-Bush period is full of talent. Among them are Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal or Nikki Haley. All have the ambition to excel, but the current electoral cycle catches them without much experience in office.
Nevertheless, they could form an excellent tandem with the Republican candidate that wins the primaries, which will probably turn out to be a fight hand-to-hand between Romney and Perry. Of the list of potential vice presidential candidates, one should worry the White House in a very special way: The Hispanic Marco Rubio, senator from Florida.
It is certain that, among the media, the importance of a vice presidential candidate is usually exaggerated. Few voters end up deciding who to vote for based on the running mate. According to the experts, the last vice presidential candidate that was decisive in an election was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1960.
However, Marco Rubio could break this spell of bad luck of unimportant candidates due to his geographic and demographic value and his personal charisma. If one state will be decisive in the 2012 elections it is Florida. Not in vain, there, in the city of Tampa, the Republican Party’s convention will take place.
In the 2008 elections, Obama won by a hair in Florida, and all signs point to a highly competitive election there this time around. Rubio, who prevailed with great clarity in the Senate elections last November — he beat his two adversaries by almost 20 points — could give the nominated Republican the slight push necessary to prevail in the southern state.
In addition to his geographic value, his demographic value is very important due to his Hispanic heritage. It has been repeated on numerous occasions that the Hispanic community was decisive for Obama in 2008. That is true, but only a half-truth. Given his landslide victory, even if Hispanics wouldn’t have mobilized in his favor, he would have won.
However, unless the economy undergoes a rapid change in direction, the next presidential elections will be very competitive, and Hispanics will be indispensible for Obama, above all in Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. And, now, he cannot rely on massive support, as there is major uneasiness over his failure to meet his campaign promise of carrying out immigration reform, and he hasn’t even stopped the deportation of minors.
In this context, Rubio could scrape a key percentage of votes away from Obama. Many Hispanics vote Democratic because they perceive the Republicans as an anti-Hispanic party. The act of selecting a Hispanic as a vice-presidential candidate, something that would be historic, could neutralize that perception for one section of the community.
In addition, unlike other Hispanics like the governor of Nevada, Brian Sandoval, or the governor of New Mexico, Susana Martínez, he has not adopted as hard a posture when it comes to immigration policy.
If Rubio were capable of providing a victory in Florida and various Western states, the Republican triumph would not be guaranteed, but it would leave Obama without a margin of error in the “purple states” — the so-called Midwest states like Ohio, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Therefore, if I were an electoral strategist working for Obama I would take the Latino community very, very seriously.
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