America’s “Four No-No's” Bill Wants to Sink Whose Ship?

Published in Xinhua
(China) on 17 October 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jeffrey King. Edited by Hoishan Chan .
The United States Senate forced through the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011 on Oct. 11, adding more uncertainty to the hazy world economy already experiencing its second dip. Comprehensively analyzing the present world economy and the state of Sino-U.S. trade relations, it is hard not to say that this act by the U.S. Senate is guilty of “Four No-No’s.”

First, the bill is untimely. The 2008 American subprime mortgage crisis triggered an unprecedented financial and economic crisis, leading to a decline in the world economy and economic blows of varying degrees to a number of different countries. Through collaboration and united efforts to save the economy by the world’s great powers, the world economy was able to avoid falling into a drawn out period of decline. With the spread of the after effects of the crisis, however, there have been repeated outbreaks of European debt crises, resulting in America’s sovereign debt rating dropping not long after those of both Greece and Spain.

Since last spring, the world economy has experienced continuous turmoil, remaining in a depressed state and lacking the strength to revive itself. Fortunately, the emerging powers of the BRICS nations have gone against the global tide and have continued to maintain growth, thus becoming a mainstay in supporting the world economy.

Presently, the international community is concerned that the current predicaments of the developed countries will spread to and burden the newly emerging economies, therefore countries are hoping that a spirit of further cooperation will emerge from the coming G-20 summit meeting. Under this backdrop, this type of spirit of collaboration seen during the early stages of the crisis is urgently needed from the world powers. The passing of this bill by the U.S. Senate undoubtedly sends an “abandon ship” signal to the international community.

Second, the bill lacks reasoning. For the past several years, the U.S. has always had people who continuously shout that the yuan is undervalued, allowing Chinese exports to obtain an unequal competitive advantage, thus taking away Americans’ livelihood. In reality, as a measure of value and a method for exchange, the value of a country’s currency is an external reflection of the scale, quality and development level of its economy. Therefore, it is a result of market choices. During a time of economic globalization where each country’s development level is at a different stage, industrial transfers have become the rule.

The fundamental reason for America’s employment problem lies in the fact that the U.S. is a developed country. It is a mature market. A high cost results in the narrowing of room for profit in an industry. At most, the appreciation of the yuan will force those American companies who do large amounts of business in China to begin to look to countries with low costs, like India and Vietnam. It is highly unlikely that they would return to the U.S. Therefore, this bill only causes harm to others and is not beneficial to the U.S.

Additionally, high debt and deficit levels have been a recurring problem that has continued to plague America’s employment issues. As we all know, America’s current unemployment situation is a type of structural unemployment, meaning that many people cannot find jobs they are qualified for and many companies cannot find workers with the necessary skills. There are shortcomings in professional training, companies are not willing to invest and the government has no money to invest. Therefore, unemployment is an intrinsic problem linked to America’s own economic structure and not a problem that has been brought to America.

Third, the bill is not concerned with the consequences. This bill requires the U.S. impose a penalty tariff on all those countries with undervalued currencies. In this sense, the U.S. is openly assuming a trade war position, a move brought on by America’s economic hegemony and power politics.

The relative stability in the value of a country’s currency is a precondition for the stable development of foreign economic relations. Under the backdrop of financial globalization and marketization, maintaining the stability of one’s currency is the embodiment of a nation’s sovereignty and is also the responsibility of the government. No government can allow other countries or international financial speculators to decide or manipulate their currency rate.

In an increasingly interdependent world, protectionism cannot win out. America’s collection of penalty tariffs from China will undoubtedly be met with forceful reprisal. Initially, during the period of the financial and economic crisis, America’s rate of growth in exports to China was the fastest it had ever been and actually became an important safeguard for America to avoid a worsening of its economic situation. If China and the U.S. start a trade war, the price of Chinese products shipped to the U.S. will increase while the amount shipped will decrease. Products shipped to the U.S. from other developing countries such as the newly emerging powers will see an increase in the quantity but not necessarily a drop in price. This will certainly increase the industrial transfer costs of multinational corporations, in turn harming the interests of American consumers.

What the U.S. is doing is tantamount to taking their China market share and simply handing it over to the European Union and Japan. As for America’s own portion of lost exports to China, it will not be easy to immediately find an alternative market. Since this bill harms others as well as its own interest, there is only one way to interpret its intention: the U.S. will pay any price to try to contain China’s economic development.

Fourth, the bill is irresponsible. The U.S. is the leader of the world economy. It should have reflected more on the global economic disaster brought on by its subprime mortgage crisis and adopted constructive, responsible measures. Instead, this bill sends out a strong signal of protectionism, showing that the U.S. is assuming a trade war position and is not concerned about the consequences. One can’t help but suspect whether the U.S. is a reliable and responsible world power.

Since the breakout of the financial crisis, China has withstood huge amounts of pressure, tenaciously maintaining its own economic growth by taking advantage of opportunities to adjust its growth methods. China’s contribution towards the world economy exceeds 50 percent, with domestic demand accounting for a contribution rate of over 90 percent toward China’s economic growth. This has become the main factor in the world economy’s ability to resist drops and to maintain growth.

The target for this U.S. Senate bill is China, which leaves one feeling that the U.S. not only wants to abandon ship, they also want to bore a hole in it before jumping. If some senators, facing pressure from the general election, haphazardly take a path of carrying out political speculation, irresponsibly look for a scapegoat, encourage problem-diverting trade policies, and in the name of one’s own interest, endanger Sino-U.S. relations and even the condition of the world economy, well then, that is just irresponsible.


美国参议院本月11日强行通过《2011年倾向汇率监督改革法案》,为本就被二次探底阴霾笼罩的世界经济形势再添不确定因素。综合分析当下世界经济和中美经贸关系,不能不令人感到美参议院此举难脱“四不”之咎。
一是不合时宜。2008年美次贷危机引发全球百年不遇的金融经济危机,导致全球经济衰退,许多国家不同程度地遭遇强烈冲击。经世界主要大国同舟 共济、联手救市,世界经济才得以避免陷入长期衰退的境地。随着危机后续效应扩散,欧债危机频发,美国也继希腊、西班牙之后遭遇主权债务评级下降,自去年春 季以来,世界金融市场动荡不已,世界经济持续低迷,复苏乏力。幸赖金砖五国等新兴大国逆势顽强维持增长,成为支撑世界经济的中流砥柱。眼下,国际社会普遍 忧虑发达国家经济的困局可能波及并拖累新兴经济体,期待即将召开的20国峰会能展现进一步的合作精神。在此背景下,迫切需要世界主要大国继续发挥危机爆发 初期的那种同舟共济的精神。美国参议院此时通过该法案,无疑向国际社会发出了“弃船”的信号。
二是不讲道理。多年来,美国内总有一些人不断地叫嚷人民币被低估,使中国出口商获得不公平的竞争优势,抢走了美国人的饭碗等。实际上,作为价值 尺度和交换手段,一国币值的高低是其经济规模、质量和经济发展水平的外在反映,因而也是市场选择的结果。在经济全球化和各国发展水平存在巨大差异的背景 下,产业转移是铁律。美国就业问题的根本原因在于美国是一个发达国家,属于成熟经济,成本高企导致产业利润空间收窄,迫使企业通过大规模生产乃至研发业务 外迁寻求发展,导致美国内某些行业就业水平下降。人民币升值充其量将迫使那些有大量在华业务的美资企业将目光转向印度、越南等其他低成本国家,而不大可能 回归美国。所以该法案损人且不利己。此外,高债务和高赤字也是制约美就业问题的痼疾。我们知道,当下美国的失业属于结构性失业,即很多人找不到能胜任的工 作,也有很多公司找不到拥有所需技能的职员,职业培训缺失,企业不愿意投入,政府没有钱可以投入。所以,失业是美国自身经济结构导致的内生性而非输入性问 题。
三是不计后果。该法案要求对所谓汇率被低估国征收惩罚性关税,公开摆出打贸易战的 姿态,这是经济霸权主义与强权政治在做祟。一国币值相对稳定是对外经济关系平稳发展的前提。在金融国际化市场化背景下,维护本币稳定是国家主权的体现,也 是政府的责任。没有哪个政府能够允许其他国家或国际金融投机决定或操纵本币汇率。在一个日益相互依赖的世界上,保护主义绝无可能完胜。美对华征收惩罚性关 税,势必招致强有力的报复。本来,金融经济危机年代美对华出口增长速度最快,实际上成为美避免经济进一步恶化的重要保障。如果中美贸易战开打,中国输美产 品价涨量降,其他新兴大国等发展中国家输美产品量增价未必跌,必然增加跨国公司产业转移成本,必然损害美消费者利益。美国则等于把在华市场份额拱手让给欧 盟和日本,其自身对华出口下降的那部分却不那么容易立刻找到替代市场。既然该法案损人又害己,那么,其意图只能有一个解释,那就是美国不惜代价地要遏制中 国经济发展。
四是不负责任。美国是世界经济龙 头老大,本应就其次贷危机导致全球经济灾难进行深刻反思,采取建设性、负责任的措施。该法案却释放出强烈的保护主义信号,不计后果地摆出贸易战姿态,不能 不令人怀疑美国还是不是可靠而负责任的大国。金融危机爆发以来,中国顶住巨大压力,借机调整增长方式,顽强保持经济增长,对世界经济贡献率超过50%,内 需对中国经济增长的贡献率超过90%,成为全球经济抗衰退保增长的最重要因素。美参院法案瞄准中国,令人感觉美国不仅要弃船,还要“凿船”了。如果说某些 议员面临大选压力,慌不择路地进行政治投机,不计后果地寻找替罪羊,鼓动以邻为壑的贸易政策,那么,为一己私利而置中美关系大局乃至世界经济大局于危险 中,就更是不负责任了。
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