Barking Dogs

Published in Salzburger Nachrichten
(Austria) on 3 November 2011
by Gil Yaron (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ron Argentati. Edited by Rica Asuncion-Reed.
Despite all the reports out of Israel, an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities doesn't appear to be in the cards. The reason is partly the weather.

On Thursday, a winter storm front made its way into the Middle East. A thick cloud blanket would considerably hamper precision air bombardments, so no attack is probable before May 2012. But it's not only the meteorologists who have calming news.

Iran's nuclear program is hidden deep in the mountains and has been scattered all across the country. It would take a very long time to reach all the targets. The route from Israel to Iran crosses airspace controlled by Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. While Israel is militarily capable of pulling off an undetected surprise attack, a protracted air campaign would present it with almost insoluble military, logistical and diplomatic problems. Only the United States, in concert with its Western allies, would be capable of subjecting Iran to prolonged air attack. So Prime Minister Netanyahu is left with little more than threatening gestures, and he's pulling out all the stops trying to get the world to take action. “Hold me back!” he cries in the hope of getting stronger sanctions against Iran or, better yet, getting the United States to finally attack.

Anyone frightened by the reports coming out of Israel needs to pause and reflect that they have been cleared by Israeli military censors. Should Israel eventually find itself forced out of desperation to actually attack Iran, it wouldn't give Tehran any warning. No one needs to worry until Israel stops talking about the Iranian threat.


Hunde, die bellen
Von Gil Yaron
3 Nov 2011

Allen Nachrichten aus Israel zum Trotz: Ein israelischer Angriff gegen Irans Atomprogramm scheint nicht bevorzustehen. Das liegt zum Teil am Wetter.

Just am Donnerstag hielt der Winter mit einer Gewitterfront in Nahost Einzug. Eine dicke Wolkendecke erschwert Präzisionsangriffe aus der Luft erheblich. Vor Mai 2012 ist mit keinem Angriff zu rechnen. Doch nicht nur die Meteorologen beruhigen.

Der Iran hat sein Atomprogramm tief in Bergen versteckt und weit übers Land verstreut. Es würde lang dauern, alle Ziele zu treffen. Die Route von Israel in den Iran durchquert den Luftraum des Irak, Saudi-Arabiens und der Türkei. Zwar sind die Israelis durchaus fähig, unentdeckt einen Überraschungsangriff auszuführen. Doch ein langer Luftkrieg würde das Land vor fast unlösbare militärische, logistische und diplomatische Herausforderungen stellen. Nur die USA, im Verbund mit ihren westlichen Verbündeten, besäßen die Fähigkeit, den Iran wochenlang zu bombardieren. Doch Drohgebärden sind das Einzige, was Premier Benjamin Netanjahu bleibt. Er zieht alle Register, um die Welt zum Handeln zu zwingen. „Haltet mich zurück!", ruft er und hofft auf scharfe Sanktionen gegen Teheran oder darauf, dass die USA endlich aufmarschieren.

Wen die Berichte aus Israel alarmieren, sollte bedenken, dass sie vom Militärzensor freigegeben wurden. Sollte Israel sich in einem Akt der Verzweiflung gezwungen sehen, den Iran tatsächlich anzugreifen, wird es Teheran keine Warnung liefern. Sorgen sollte man sich also erst machen, wenn Israel nicht mehr von der iranischen Bedrohung spricht.
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