US President’s Budget Proposal: The Continuity of Grim Business and Government Finances

Published in Yomiuri
(Japan) on 19 February 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Richard Burck. Edited by Louis Standish.
President Obama has delivered his budget proposal to Congress for the 2013 fiscal year (October 2012 to September 2013). Among the new strategies were an urgent stimulus for businesses and raising taxes on the rich, and the midterm financial reform’s consistent plans.

Looking toward November’s presidential election, the president is using his budget proposal and a strong confrontational attitude instead of campaign weapons. His aggressive turnaround is feared.

Still, the opposition between the Democratic and Republican parties is fierce. It can be said that the implementation of political measures is opaque and the soundness of government finances is grim.

Above all, the budget proposal demonstrated a plan that supports, among other things, business conditions with infrastructure improvements and employment policies. Although U.S. business conditions have recovered, original methods were slow and the employment situation is still terrible. Europe’s ongoing crisis is still sparking fears.

The president is right to raise the importance of business conditions for the short term.

The president promised to cut the budget deficit in half during his four-year term, but the 2012 fiscal year budget proposal estimates that the deficit will swell around 1.3 trillion dollars. The government’s deficit would exceed $1 trillion for four consecutive years.

In addition to the antirecession policy of the financial crisis, business recovery has also slowed, but deteriorating government finances is the main cause. The president will probably lose points for the promises that he could not keep.

For this reason, the budget proposal estimates that approximately $900 billion will be cut from the deficit in 2013. After a 10-year period, the scale of $3 trillion stressed again tackling the government deficit reduction.

To support deficit reduction, the rich would pay about $1.5 trillion more in taxes. Former President Bush’s large-scale tax cuts for the rich would be halted at the end of the year and the defense budget would also be reduced.

In the mid-term, the clear position to reduce the deficit will probably be contributed to the U.S. economy. However, the problem is the compatible views of the strategy of the president’s business policies and government financial reform are not open.

The Republican Party, which opposes ending the Bush tax cuts and raising taxes on the rich, is strengthening its opposition to the proposal. On the contrary, the Republicans want to reduce Social Security benefits, a plan rejected by Democrats.

Judging from the presidential election, it is no mistake that bargaining is in the least intensifying. Last summer, both parties sparred over increasing the debt ceiling and America’s credit rating was reduced.

If the U.S. government’s finances cannot demonstrate durability, it should not forget the lesson it learned from losing the market’s acknowledgement. It looks like that chaos will not be repeated; the president is leading and the parties want to compromise.


米予算教書 前途多難な景気と財政の両立

オバマ米大統領は、2013会計年度(12年10月~13年9月)の予算教書を議会に提出した。

当面の景気刺激策と、富裕層増税などによる中長期的な財政再建との両立方針を打ち出したのがポイントだ。

11月の大統領選に向け、大統領は、予算教書を選挙キャンペーンの武器代わりに使い、対決姿勢を鮮明にした。反転攻勢をかける狙いとみられる。

だが、与党民主党と、野党共和党との対立は激しい。政策の実現は不透明で、財政健全化も前途多難と言えよう。

予算教書はまず、インフラ整備や雇用対策などで、景気を下支えする方針を示した。

米国景気は持ち直してきたが、本格回復は遅れ、雇用情勢も依然厳しい。なかなか収束しない欧州危機の飛び火も懸念される。

大統領が、短期的には景気重視を訴えたのは妥当である。

大統領は4年間の任期中に「財政赤字を半減する」と公約したが、教書は、12年度の財政赤字が約1・3兆ドル(103兆円)に膨らむと推計した。財政赤字が1兆ドルを超えるのは4年連続だ。

金融危機後の不況対策に加え、景気回復も遅れたのが、財政悪化の要因だ。公約を達成できなかったのは大統領の失点だろう。

このため、教書は、13年度には財政赤字の縮小を図り、9014億ドル(約70兆円)と見込んでいる。今後10年間で3兆ドル(約233兆円)規模の財政赤字削減に取り組む決意も改めて強調した。

赤字削減策の柱は、約1・5兆ドルの富裕層への増税だ。ブッシュ前大統領が導入した富裕層向けの大型減税を年末で打ち切り、国防予算も削減する。

中長期的に、財政赤字を削減する姿勢を明確にしたことは、米国経済の安定に寄与するだろう。

しかし、問題は、大統領が目指す景気対策と財政再建の両面作戦の展望が開けないことだ。

富裕層への増税やブッシュ減税打ち切りに反対する共和党は、教書に反発を強めている。逆に、共和党が求める社会保障費の大幅削減には民主党が抵抗している。

大統領選をにらみ、駆け引きはさらに激化するに違いない。

昨夏、与野党が政府債務上限の引き上げを巡って対立し、米国債の格付けが引き下げられた。

財政の持続性を示さねば、市場の信認を失うという教訓を忘れてはなるまい。混乱を繰り返さぬよう、大統領が主導し、与野党が妥協を探る努力が求められる。
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