US Presidential Elections: the Debate that Wowed the World

Published in Mainichi
(Japan) on 5 October 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Kenny Nagata. Edited by Mary Young.
It appears that the duel will continue for one more month. The first of the television debates that will help decide the next presidential election (Nov. 6) has taken place in Denver, Colorado. President Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, had until now been leading in all the opinion polls, but after the debate, a CNN poll found that 67 percent of respondents thought that the Republican candidate, former governor Mitt Romney, had won the debate.

I’m sure that they have felt Mr. Romney’s resurgence. For a while, it seemed like President Obama would pull out with a big lead, but now he will not win re-election so easily. The next two debates will be major factors, and foreign policy will be the theme. People around the world will be watching this superpower choose its leader. The world is expecting a spirited debate, which should include a discussion of the Senkaku Island problem that is plaguing Japan.

The theme of the debate on the night of Oct. 3 (in Japan, the morning of Oct. 4) was domestic policy. Focusing on jobs, President Obama boasted that “over the last 30 months, we’ve seen 5 million jobs... created.” Meanwhile, Mr. Romney criticized the Obama administration’s big government and big deficit spending, calling for more job growth through private sector leadership. He promised to create 12 million new jobs.

Concerning President Obama’s health care reform, which pushes for national health insurance, Mr. Romney emphasized that he will repeal it, saying that it costs too much money. In America, there are many people who are against health care reform. He has politely described the problem to the general public, but they have a calm and generally favorable impression of the president.

The wealthy Mr. Romney’s approval rating began to weaken when he said that “47 percent of Americans pay no income tax” and that the masses are sponging off the government. He has also made firm comments showing that he is counting on support from the Tea Party, a grassroots effort criticizing public expenditures on financial institution assistance and health care reform, as well as from social conservatives who are opposed to gay marriage, etc. For someone who was originally a moderate in his party, wouldn’t it be a better idea to follow that path?

It’s certain that President Obama will win the large states of California and New York, and he is leading in Florida, which hosted the Republican National Convention. According to some reports, of the 538 delegates from across the U.S., President Obama very nearly has the 270 majority guarantee.

However, that is only the current state of affairs, and in the U.S. they have a phrase called the “October Surprise.” An example of this occurred just before the 2000 election, when it came out that then candidate Bush was arrested some 20 years prior for drunk driving. You can’t take your eyes off the road until the very end in the presidential elections, which unravel like a scheme hatched behind closed doors.


あと1カ月、激しいつばぜり合いが続きそうだ。米大統領選(11月6日)の行方を占う1回目のテレビ討 論会がコロラド州デンバーで開かれた。各種世論調査で優勢を誇るオバマ大統領(民主党)だが、討論会後に米CNNが実施した世論調査では、共和党候補のロ ムニー前マサチューセッツ州知事が論戦に勝ったと答えた人が67%に上ったという。

ロムニー氏は巻き返しへの手ごたえを感じただろう。一時は水をあけたかと思えたオバマ大統領だが、再選 はそう簡単なことではない。あと2回、外交もテーマに開かれる大統領候補の討論会は大きな要素になろう。世界中の人々が、この超大国の指導者選びを見つめ ている。日本が対応に苦しむ尖閣問題も含めて、世界が感心する論戦を期待したい。

3日夜(日本時間4日午前)の討論会は内政がテーマだった。焦点の雇用対策でオバマ大統領が「過去30 カ月で500万の雇用を創出した」と実績を誇れば、ロムニー氏はオバマ政権の「大きな政府」や「巨額の財政支出」を批判し、民間主導の雇用創出を訴えた。 同氏は1200万の新規雇用を公約している。

また、実質的な国民皆保険制度に向けて医療保険改革を進めるオバマ大統領に対し、ロムニー氏は改革に金がかかり過ぎるなどとして、廃止を主張した。 米国では医療保険改革に反対する人も多い。同氏が庶民に身近な問題を丁寧に説明し、おおむね落ち着いて大統領と渡りあった点が好感を呼んだのだろう。

資産家のロムニー氏は「(米国民の)47%が連邦所得税を払っていない」と、庶民を「たかり」呼ばわり するような発言もあって、支持率が低迷していた。金融機関救済や医療保険改革への公費注入を批判する草の根運動「ティーパーティー(茶会)」や、同性婚な どに反対する保守層の支持を当て込み、あえて強硬な発言をする傾向もあった。もともと党内穏健派の同氏は、無理をせず自然体で行くのが得策ではないか。

オバマ大統領は大州のカリフォルニアとニューヨークでの勝利が確実で、共和党が大統領選に向けて全国大会を開いたフロリダ州の世論調査でもリードしている。全米538人の選挙人獲得を争う大統領選で、オバマ大統領は過半数(270人)確保へあと一息との報道もある。

だが、これは現時点の情勢で、米国には「オクトーバー・サプライズ」(10月の大事件)という言葉もある。00年の選挙の投票日直前、ブッシュ候補(前大 統領)が二十数年前に酒気帯び運転で逮捕されたことが明るみに出たのも、その一例だ。水面下で陰謀も渦巻く米大統領選は、ぎりぎりまで目が離せない。
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