Obama Can't Be Beaten

The elections have, in essence, already been decided. One need only look at the correct opinion poll. Obama can do as poorly as possible in the remaining debates against Mitt Romney; he will still win the election. At least, that's the verdict reached after the fourth session of demographic (un)consciousness.

Nate Silver is nervous. Those who read his prognostications or listen to his comments concerning opinion polls over the past week can literally feel his irritation. Nate Silver, demoscopic guru for the New York Times, tries daily to come up with new explanations for the near-grotesque reversals in opinion polls — and his job is getting tougher.

Maybe for the first time in 50 years the presidential debates will make all the difference in who's elected (we're not talking here about the undecided voters). Everything is different this year. Maybe the dynamic of the swing states will be different from the rest of the nation this time and Romney will win the popular vote but Obama wins because he gets the needed number of electoral votes. Or maybe it could be the other way around?

Would you want Obama to be your boss? Or you neighbor?

The subjects are of vital interest to two-thirds of the U.S. media, while somewhat fewer journalists are doggedly asking what it's all supposed to mean. What does Romney stand for, anyway? And what does Obama intend to accomplish during a second term? Anyone interested in such things will learn precious little from the mainstream media and even less from the campaign speeches. But then again, nobody seems intent on asking those questions, either.

Instead, the media takes refuge in eternally new polling data that deal with serious (and even more important) subjects. Esquire magazine, for example: After the usual questions have been asked — for whom would you vote: 50 percent Obama to 46 percent Romney — 61 percent claim the outcome is important in their lives, 13 percent say they know someone who would refuse to vote for Romney because he's a Mormon while 26 percent know people who wouldn't vote for Obama because of his race.

Forty-eight percent believe they have nothing in common with Romney, while only 36 percent think the same about Obama. And then to the items of utmost importance: 52 percent would prefer to have Obama as their supervisor (34 percent for Romney), 47 percent would prefer to live next door to Obama (31 percent for Romney), 54 percent would rather sit next to Obama during a trip (29 percent for Romney) and 52 percent say they would choose Obama to take care of their dog compared to Romney's weak 27 percent (no doubt influenced by the memory of poor old Seamus on the car roof). Romney wins just one category: 53 percent would rather get tax avoidance tips from Romney, while Obama comes in at a mere 33 percent in that category.

New York magazine's survey produces somewhat similar colorful results; however, it's interesting that in its survey, 78 percent of respondents say Bill Clinton is Obama's most important campaign advisor, miles ahead of David Axelrod. And who do Americans think are Romney's most important team members? Billionaires David and Charles Koch (35 percent), along with billionaire Sheldon Adelson (14 percent). Americans certainly seem to have understood that particular message.

Oh, sure, there were political questions included as well. 57 percent consider Obama to be the stronger leader (Romney: 43 percent); 51 percent think Obama would do a better job with the economy (Romney: 49 percent); 68 percent think Obama would make the world a safer place (Romney: 32 percent). That fits nicely with our previously reported fact that most people think Obama is best suited to deal with the space alien problem, where 65 percent would prefer to be protected by Obama rather than Romney. Not even the Libyan consulate affair could change that (well, okay, those weren't space aliens but they were just as dangerous nonetheless ...).

The greatest measure of people's confidence in Obama in spite of all his setbacks comes in the final question of the ABC-Washington Post poll: 49 percent of Americans would prefer Obama as their babysitter. Two weeks ago, the candidates were in a dead heat on this one; now Obama leads Romney by 13 percentage points. That positive trend is likely thanks to Obama's lukewarm showing during the first television debate — the one that other surveys claim damaged him so greatly.

Further questions? No? Naturally not. Or as Nate Silver's desperate Tweet correctly pointed out four weeks ago, "The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense."