Cui Yiquan: Has the US Economy Recovered?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 12 March 2013
by Liang Shuang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Caroline Moreno. Edited by Bora Mici.
The U.S. rides a wave of good tidings even as Europe finds itself in another economic bind with Italy's newly downgraded credit rating.

The nonagricultural February jobs report indicates the unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent, its lowest in four years, even lower than January's figure of 7.9 percent.

Details in the report reveal that U.S. employment figures have improved beyond expectation, including an above-average February construction report showing a clear increase in workers' average hours.

Surprisingly, the improved employment rate coincided with the arrival of the fiscal cliff, upending the universally held expectation that the "cliff" would worsen the economy. Some experts point out that the fiscal headwind is a contributing factor in the unemployment rate going down.

Tax increases coupled with social benefit decreases have led to individual family budgets coming up short. For Americans, who lack a savings ethic and are used to high consumption, living frugally is not as appealing as earning enough to maintain consumption demands. Therefore, the number of people opting for employment has increased somewhat.

Additionally, according to an analysis by The Washington Post, the gradual implementation of austerity has reduced uncertainty regarding government expenditures and public tax revenues. Once cautious about payroll hours, businesses now have a better sense of the government's regulatory economic measures and aptly are gearing up to recruit employees.

Of course, not everyone holds the same viewpoint on the employment report. The Wall Street Journal points out that the unemployment rate does not factor in the continuous reduction in the U.S. labor force in recent years. Because of a diminished labor base, the decrease in the unemployment rate does not guarantee an increase in the number of employed persons overall.

Regardless of whether the 7.7 percent unemployment rate augments reality or not, we can be sure that the report has stimulated and restored the government and people's confidence in the U.S. economy.

However, now may not be the time for Americans to rejoice. A new round of doubts, and even terror, is creeping up. Approximately 750,000 jobs cuts are part of automatic spending reductions in effect March 1 nationwide according to U.S. Congressional Budget Office predictions. U.S. media reports warn that the unemployment rate hitting a new low is only a brief respite before an inevitable slowdown; doomsday fears are once again wearing down the economy.

Some analysts believe that such pessimistic arguments are symptomatic of the U.S.'s tendency to herald its own decline. Current economic data show that the U.S. economy is actually healthier than anticipated, and its ability to resist conflict is stronger. The effects of recent developments in the U.S. economy are still current and far from the terrible mess the media makes them out to be. America could emerge out of the crisis and once again lead in the global economy.

I agree with the British newspaper The Guardian's analysis: Although the automatic spending reductions’ shockwave is unavoidable, the U.S. market has the ability to gradually dilute and absorb its negative effects. It is not very likely that the U.S. economy will experience major rollercoaster ups and downs. Ultimately, it will use its strength to steadily pace itself toward renewal.



崔亦谦:美国经济复苏了吗
2013-03-12 08:23 人民日报海外版 我有话说 字号:TT
  在欧洲经济因意大利的信用降级再陷泥潭时,大洋彼岸的美国却传来振奋人心的好消息。
  美国官方8日发布的非农就业报告显示,2月美国失业率降至7.7%,明显低于1月7.9%的数值,创下了近4年来的最低纪录。
  该报告的多处细节表明,美国就业形势改善超出预期,其中2月建筑业的就业增量最为引人注目,工人的整体平均工时都有明显增长。
  尤其令人惊喜的是,就业增长恰恰出现在“财政悬崖”议案生效初期,这似乎背离了“悬崖”会使美国经济恶化的普遍看法。不过,有专家指出,恰恰是这股“财政逆风”充当了失业率走低的推手。
  从个人层面来说,税收的提高和社会福利的下降导致家庭预算吃紧,对于无储蓄意识、习惯高消费的美国人而言,与其节衣缩食,还不如通过挣工资来维持原有的消费需求。因而,选择就业的人数有所增加。
  另据《华盛顿邮报》分析,紧缩政策的逐步落实,使得政府支出、公共税收方面的不确定性减小。相比于先前雇工时的谨小慎微,如今企业应对政府经济调控措施的把握更大, 着手“招兵买马”也是理所应当的事情。
  当然,并非所有人与就业报告持相同观点。《华尔街日报》刊文指出,失业率掩盖了美国劳动力近年来不断减少的事实:由于作为分母的劳动力基数变小,失业率的下降并不意味着就业人数的明显增加。
  不过,无论7.7%的失业率是否掺了水分,可以肯定的是,该数据客观上刺激了美国经济的回暖,提振了政府及民众的信心。
  眼下,美国人民还没来得及庆幸之时,新一轮的疑虑甚至恐慌却悄然泛起。据美国国会预算局预测,3月1日自动减支计划生效后,全国共将削减约75万个工作岗位。不少美国媒体担心,失业率创新低只是乍暖还寒,“大限”恐将再度拖垮经济。
  分析认为,如此悲观的论调频频出现,与美国喜欢一如既往地唱衰自己有关。从近期的一系列经济数据看来,其实美国经济比人们预想得更为健 康,抗冲击的能力更强;美国经济发展的后劲依然充足,远非美国媒体分析的那样糟糕。可以预见,美国很可能再次充当全球经济的“领头羊”,率先走出经济危机 的困局。
  正如英国《卫报》的分析所言,虽然自动减支计划的“冲击波”不可避免,但美国市场有能力逐步稀释并吸收“大限”带来的负面影响。美国经济不大可能遭遇“过山车”似的大起大落,其最终将以强势而稳健的步伐迎来新的春天。
责任编辑:梁爽
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