US Threatens China and Russia: 'Revenge' Options Limited

Published in Wen Wei Po
(China) on 26 June 2013
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Daniel Chow. Edited by Kathleen Weinberger.
Washington has warned — first China and then Russia — that if the two countries allow Edward Snowden to escape they will face the “consequences.” But analysts believe that, given the complexity of U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations, the Obama administration will not have a falling-out with them just because of Snowden. Any real “revenge” options are limited, and the so-called “consequences” are merely verbal threats.

The U.S. has, to varying degrees, threatened China, Hong Kong, Russia and Ecuador. Experts believe that Washington will only increase the U.S. visa application requirements for citizens of these areas, impose sanctions on some imported goods, push back foreign investment deals and ignore future extradition requests from these places. These include the trade agreements that allow for the duty free import of goods from Ecuador. As the agreements expire on July 31 next month, the U.S. may not renew the agreements as revenge.

There is also the opinion that, instead of verbal threats, the U.S. should instead provide incentives for cooperation, such as providing more support on trade agreements. The U.S. still has to cooperate with China and Russia on international issues such as the Syrian civil war and the nuclear programs underway in Iran and North Korea. Brookings Institution expert Kenneth G. Lieberthal does not think that Washington will damage bilateral relations because of Snowden or decide to do something such as impose sanctions on China.


華府先後對中俄揚言,若兩國縱容斯諾登逃走,將面臨「後果」。但分析認為,美中、美俄雙邊關係千絲萬縷,奧巴馬政府料不會為了區區斯諾登而撕破臉,實際「報復」選項有限,所謂「後果」恫嚇居多。

 美國對中國內地、香港、俄國及厄瓜多爾均曾作出不同程度的威脅,專家認為,華府充其量只會提高這些地區公民申請美國簽證的門檻、對部分進口貨品實施制裁、押後外資交易及漠視這些地方將來提出的引渡要求等。其中厄國商品進入美國市場的免稅措施將於下月31日到期,美方可能叫停優惠,以示報復。

 亦有意見認為,與其出言威嚇,美國不如提供合作誘因,如在貿易協議方面提供更多支援等。美國在敘利亞內戰、伊朗及朝鮮核發展等國際議題上仍須與中俄合作,布魯金斯研究所專家李侃如認為,華府不宜因斯諾登損害雙邊關係,更不可能作出制裁中國之類的決定。
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