It is surprising that in the country that made social mobility and the self-made person its hallmarks and rebelled against King George III, denouncing the European dynastic order before the French Revolution, the Clinton and Bush dynasties continue to thrive. However, this is a deceptive contradiction because in American politics as well as American capitalism, there has always been nostalgia for European privilege.
The early announcement by Jeb, the ex-governor of Florida, that he will enter the presidential race is owed in part to Hillary. The prospect of facing the Clinton dynasty could protect Bush from appearing too aristocratic. Hillary fears the opposite: having the Bush dynasty as a rival takes some legitimacy away from the Clinton dynasty, whose primary goal is to represent the reaction against Obama and against the Republican party´s childish gibberish.
The Bushes and the Clintons have troubling political legacies, so it is not difficult to imagine that the dispute will continue beyond Hillary and Jeb. But for now, they are the ones in the spotlight. They share a sense of sacrifice; knowing they were better, they both had to accept a secondary role: Hillary to her husband, who was less prepared but had that sixth political sense which she lacked; Jeb to his brother, who was intellectually and politically inferior but was backed by the Texas machinery at the right time, confirming that opportunity prevails over merit.
In terms of credentials, Jeb outperforms Hillary in management. He was a good governor who dared to make politically explosive reforms in areas like education and school vouchers. Hillary’s performance as secretary of state and her earlier activities as senator and first lady were less substantial than Jeb´s, but they did make her into a female icon.
Who is each one´s worst enemy? In Hillary´s case, even more than the polarizing effect of the Clinton name, Obama is her enemy. Bush´s worst enemy is the current Republican chaos, more than the memory of his brother and father and more than the frowns that the dynastic style of life produces in a country run by the middle-class.
Obama´s unpopularity is not the worst part. Strictly from an electoral standpoint, the worst part is the fact that the president has decided to finish his term by defying the lame duck stereotype and making controversial decisions: the climate change agreement with China, the Immigration Act, the thawing of relations with Cuba and aerial intervention in Iraq. All of these actions serve to lessen Hillary´s totemic image by reducing the contrasting effect that benefited her.
In Jeb´s case, the problem is the divide within the Republican Party, which was demonstrated by the difficulties in the recent re-election of the speaker of the House of Representatives. It is not difficult to imagine that the tea party will abuse Jeb for his defense of immigration (and for his Mexican wife), even to the point of fratricide. This dynastic battle is fascinating from every point of view and impossible to predict.
Sorprende que en el país que hizo de la movilidad social y la persona “self-made” sus señas distintivas -y se sublevó contra Jorge III para repudiar el orden dinástico europeo antes de la Revolución francesa- las dinastías Clinton y Bush sigan vivas. Contradicción engañosa: hubo siempre, en la política lo mismo que en el capitalismo estadounidense, nostalgia de privilegio a la europea.
El anuncio temprano de Jeb, ex gobernador de Florida, de que está en carrera en parte se debe a Hillary. La perspectiva de tener enfrente a la dinastía Clinton blindaría a Bush contra la percepción aristocrática. Hillary teme lo contrario: tener de rival a la dinastía Bush le resta cierta justificación a la dinastía Clinton, cuya razón de ser es representar un cierto orden institucional contra el experimento Obama y el infantil guirigay republicano.
Los Bush y los Clinton tienen descendencia políticamente inquieta, de modo que no es difícil imaginar que la disputa pueda prolongarse más allá de Hillary y Jeb. Pero por ahora importan ellos. Comparten un sentido de sacrificio: sabiéndose mejores, tuvieron que aceptar un papel secundario. Ella, en favor de su marido, menos preparado pero dotado de ese sexto sentido político del que ella carecía. Él, en favor de un hermano que intelectual y políticamente era inferior, pero fue aupado por la maquinaria tejana en el momento preciso, confirmando que la oportunidad prevalece sobre el mérito.
En cuanto a las credenciales, Jeb supera a Hillary en gestión: fue un buen gobernador y se atrevió a hacer reformas políticamente combustibles, como la educativa, incluyendo el “voucher” escolar. La gestión de ella como jefa de la diplomacia y, antes, su actividad como senadora y primera dama, fueron menos sustanciosas que la de Jeb, pero hicieron de ella un icono femenino.
¿Cuál es el peor enemigo de cada cual? En el caso de ella, lo es Obama incluso más que el efecto polarizante de los Clinton. El de Bush es el caos republicano antes que el recuerdo de su hermano y su padre, o el fruncir de ceños que produce en un país mesocrático el sentido dinástico de la vida.
El que Obama sea impopular no es lo peor: quizá lo sea, desde el punto de vista estrictamente del cálculo electoral, el hecho de que el Presidente haya decidido acabar su mandato desafiando el síndrome del “pato cojo” y tomando decisiones polémicas -el acuerdo climático con China, el decreto migratorio, el deshielo con Cuba, la intervención aérea en Irak- que disminuyen un poco la figura totémica de Hillary porque reducen el efecto “contraste” del que ella se beneficiaba.
En el caso de Jeb, el problema es que hay varios partidos republicanos (como acaba de mostrarlo el hecho de que el Presidente de la Cámara de Representantes haya sufrido tanto para ser reelecto). No es difícil imaginar al Tea Party maltratando a Bush por su defensa de la inmigración (y por su esposa mexicana) hasta los límites del fratricidio. Fascinante por donde se lo mire, y de imposible pronóstico.
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