​Beware of US Fine-Tuning

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 2 April 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anthony Chantavy. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
President Barack Obama and Chairman Xi Jinping held a final meeting in Washington before the Group of 20 Summit of leading rich and developing nations. Neither of them mentioned Taiwan or held a press conference after the meeting. Mainland China's ministry of foreign affairs issued a news report with a short passage about Taiwan, yet the U.S. has written nothing of the sort. To Taiwan, there is more to the situation than meets the eye.

What China's foreign affairs ministry says is none too good for Taiwan. Last December, when Xi and Obama met at the Paris Conference, Xi expressed his hope that "the U.S. will take concrete actions to support the peaceful development of cross-strait relations," while Obama replied that the U.S. hoped to see stable development in cross-strait relations. This time, Xi asked the U.S. to continue taking concrete actions to protect peaceful development of relations, but how Obama replied or what promise the two made was not made public.

Though these remarks may reflect what they said, the situation is a little awkward in the way that the U.S. emphasizes the "status quo." In 1999, when Lee Teng-hui proposed special state-to-state relations, the Clinton administration was uneasy, so it sought to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait in terms of "three pillars": “one China,” “cross-strait dialogue,” and “peaceful resolution.” During President George W. Bush's term, the Chen Shui-bian administration proposed "one country on each side," but the U.S. asked for the status quo again. The so-called "status quo," as James Kelly, then assistant U.S. secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, would say, is up to the U.S. to define.

The current Obama administration has a very interesting position on cross-strait relations. Now the U.S. urges China and Taiwan to resolve their conflict peacefully through dialogue. Has the U.S. given up on promoting its one-China concept to the DPP?*

Perhaps not. The media once reported that according to U.S. think tanks in Taipei, if Tsai Ing-wen** did not meet Beijing's requirements in the G-20, if Beijing put all kinds of pressure on economy, trade, and diplomacy, then the U.S. would not be able to help Taiwan and nor would it act as a peacemaker.

From the looks of this, the U.S. is in an unimaginable position. If Beijing takes up a firmer stance against Taiwan because of the U.S.'s attitude, it would be no surprise.

*Editor’s note: The DPP stands for the Democratic Progressive Party, a progressive and liberal political party in Taiwan.

**Editor's note: Tsai Ing-wen is president-elect of Taiwan.


歐巴馬和習近平在華府舉行了520前的最後一次高峰會。雙方公開發言對台灣隻字未提;會後雙方並未舉行記者會,大陸外交部發布新聞資訊,有一小段事關台灣,美國則未提台灣。對台灣而言,實際情況有點諱莫如深。

從大陸外交部的說法來看,對台灣似乎不妙。去年12月,習歐二人在巴黎高峰會見面,習說「希望美方以實際行動,支持兩岸關係和平發展」,歐巴馬不鹹不淡回應,美國「樂見台海兩岸關係穩定發展」。這回習近平要美方「繼續採取實際行動,維護兩岸關係和平發展」,但歐巴馬到底說了啥、雙方有無承諾,外界甚難窺知。

話雖如此,若從美國一再強調的「現狀」來看,情況可能有些尷尬。1999年李登輝提「特殊兩國論」,美國柯林頓政府且怒且恐,要求兩岸維持「現狀」,並提出現狀三支柱──一個中國、兩岸對話、和平解決。小布希時代,陳水扁政府提「一邊一國」,美國也要求要維持「現狀」;所謂「現狀」,按彼時亞太助卿凱利的說法,由美國來界定。

現在的歐巴馬政府,在兩岸關係的定位上就很有意思了,美國的說法變成「兩岸進行對話,和平解決爭端」。美國放棄用一中概念要求即將上台的民進黨政府了嗎?

看來似乎不是,媒體曾報導,美國智庫學者曾在台北告知,如果蔡英文520講話不符合北京要求,北京若採取包括經貿、外交的種種壓力,美國將不會幫助台灣,也無能為力,更不會做調人。

這樣看來,美國的立場就很微妙了。如果北京因為美國的態度,在此一議題上對台灣採取更強硬立場,就不會令人感到驚訝。

(中國時報)
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