Ill Winds for the Global Economy

Published in El Periódico
(Spain) on 15 August 2019
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Marta Quirós Alarcón. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
The trade war between the United States and China threatens the world’s economy

Major global institutions have been reporting signs of economic exhaustion for months. Two pieces of recent data from Germany and the World Trade Organization, respectively, corroborate this trend. Last Wednesday, Germany’s Federal Statistical Office reported that the country’s economy had shrunk by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, verging on recession. The export-led gross domestic product slowdown in Germany was a product of the uncertainties of an eventual Brexit without a deal, and above all, from the trade war between the United States and China, which is linked to the second announcement, coming from the WTO. This organization reported yesterday that it expects the trade downturn to continue during the second quarter, and downgraded its Goods Trade Barometer to its lowest figure since 2010.

If the threat a trade war poses to the world economy is not enough to persuade Donald Trump of the need to unblock negotiations with China, the leader should at least consider the damage this will do to his own country. There is some indication of that in the American president’s decision to delay higher tariffs on some products (which was set for Sept. 1), giving in to corporate pressure so as not to impact the Christmas season.* If Trump does not substitute dialogue for his inflexible positions, he may do more harm than good to the interests the U.S. claims to defend. And those of the whole world.

*Editor's note: On Friday, Aug. 23, 2019, Trump increased tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods produced by China and imported by the U.S. from 25% to 30% effective Oct. 1.



Malos vientos para la economía mundial

La guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China es una amenaza para la economía internacional

Los síntomas de agotamiento económico vienen anunciándose desde hace meses por parte de las principales instituciones mundiales. Dos datos recientes –de Alemania y la Organización Mundial de Comercio (OMC), respectivamente– corroboran esta tendencia. El pasado miércoles, la Oficina Federal de Estadística de Alemania informó de que la economía del país se contrajo el 0,1% en el segundo trimestre del año, rozando la recesión. Lo que frenó el PIB alemán fueron las exportaciones, fruto de las incertidumbres sobre un eventual 'brexit' sin acuerdo y, sobre todo, de la guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China, lo que entronca con el segundo anuncio, de la OMC. Esta organización informó ayer de que prevé que prosiga la contracción de los intercambios comerciales en el tercer trimestre y situó su Barómetro de Comercio de Mercancías en la cifra más baja desde el 2010.

Si la amenaza que supone la guerra comercial para la economía mundial no basta para convencer a Donald Trump de la necesidad de desbloquear las negociaciones con China, el mandatario debería pensar por lo menos en los perjuicios para su propio pala guerra comercialís. Algo de ello hay en la decisión del presidente estadounidense de retrasar para algunos productos la nueva subida de aranceles (prevista para el 1 de septiembre), cediendo a presiones empresariales, para no afectar la campaña navideña. Si Trump no cambia las posturas inflexibles por el diálogo, puede acabar haciendo más mal que bien a los intereses de EEUU que dice defender. Y a los de todo el mundo.
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