Trump’s Testosterone Wall

Published in El Periódico
(Spain) on 4 November 2020
by Ricardo Mir de Francia (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Marta Quirós Alarcón. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Men and the Republican base are keeping the president afloat in the election.

In his almost four years as president, Donald Trump has never tried to be a president for all Americans. He has governed with his eye on his base, without attempting to build bridges, prioritizing his political interests over the collective ones. General James Mattis, secretary of defense for two of the president's four years in office and a Republican, went as far as saying, “Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try.”

According to the first exit polls, that policy has manifested itself in Tuesday’s preliminary results. To a large extent, if Trump has stayed afloat, it is due to the overwhelming support of his party and of — mainly white — men, although he has scraped up some support among Black and Hispanic men.

Once more, the South, rural states and small cities have proven to be his lifeline: the America that is most fearful of social change, the one that feels good when Trump appeals to the glories of their most injudicious past and when he repeatedly tells them that they are the backbone of the country — however much the economic growth has passed them by and left them by the wayside.

Hard-Core Supporters of Trumpism

However, not everyone in his base has kept on blindly believing his promises and his mostly failed attempts to renegotiate a business relationship with the world or restore industrial vigor to those areas betrayed by automation and the bazaar of globalization. According to CNN’s exit polls, the president would face an 11-point loss of support compared with 2016 among white men without college degrees — those workers who still constitute the hard-core supporters of Trumpism.

This is a trend that could be applied to the vote of white men as a whole, through which he has gone on to win by 18 points, as opposed to the 31 from four years ago. To a certain extent, he has made up for it by achieving his best results among Hispanic and Black men, bombarded as they were by millions of negative ads about Joe Biden made by the Trump campaign and his allies, where they accused him, among other things, of having destroyed “millions of African American lives” with his support of Bill Clinton’s incarceration policies.

Women have predominantly continued voting Democratic, giving Biden a 13-point advantage — the same Hillary Clinton obtained. What is striking in CNN’s polls is that women with a higher education have switched sides to back the president, giving him an advantage of one point over his opponent.

Moreover, Trump has managed to turn Republican voters into a watertight stronghold despite the money spent by organizations of disgruntled Republicans such as the Lincoln Project, and despite Biden’s efforts to approach their more moderate cadres. His support has grown from 90 percent in 2016 to 93 percent.

The expected defection on the part of pensioners — those hardest hit by the pandemic — has not taken place, either. It was an issue of secondary importance to Republican voters, who were much more concerned by the economy and safety. Those over the age of 45 are the base of Trumpism, a movement that will not soon disappear, even if the tycoon loses the election.


El muro de testosterona de Trump

Los hombres y las bases republicanas mantienen a flote al presidente en estos comicios

En los casi cuatro años de su presidencia, Donald Trump nunca ha tratado de ser el presidente de todos los estadounidenses. Ha gobernado con la mente puesta en sus bases, sin tratar de tender puentes y priorizando sus intereses políticos a los intereses colectivos. "Trump es el primer presidente desde que estoy vivo que no trata de unir al pueblo estadounidense, ni siquiera lo pretende", llegó a decir el general James Mattis, republicano y secretario de Defensa durante sus primeros dos años de mandato.

Esa política se ha reflejado en los resultados provisionales del martes, según las primeras encuestas a pie de urna. Si Trump se ha mantenido a flote es en gran medida por el apoyo abrumador de su partido y de los hombres, principalmente blancos, aunque ha arañado también apoyos entre los varones negros e hispanos.

El sur del país, los estados rurales y las pequeñas ciudades han vuelto a ser su tabla de salvación, la América más temerosa de los cambios sociales, a la que Trump hace sentirse bien apelando a las glorias de su pasado más acrítico y repitiéndoles que son la columna vertebral del país por más que el desarrollo económico haya pasado de largo para dejarlos en la cuneta.

El núcleo duro del trumpismo

Pero no todas sus bases han seguido creyéndose a pies juntillas sus promesas, sus intentos en gran medida fallidos de renegociar la relación comercial con el mundo o devolver el vigor industrial a regiones traicionadas por la automatización y el mercado persa de la globalización. El presidente habría perdido hasta 11 puntos de respaldo respecto a 2016 entre los hombres blancos sin titulación universitaria, esos obreros que siguen constituyendo el núcleo duro del trumpismo, según las encuestas a pie de urna de CNN.

Una tónica aplicable al voto de todo el hombre blanco, que ha pasado a ganar por 18 puntos frente a los 31 de hace cuatro años. Hasta cierto punto, lo ha compensado con su mejor resultado entre los varones hispanos y negros, bombardeados por su campaña y sus aliados con millones de anuncios negativos de Joe Biden, al que acusaban, entre otras cosas, de haber destruido "millones de vidas afroamericanas" con su apoyo a las políticas carcelarias de Bill Clinton.

Las mujeres han seguido votando demócrata de manera mayoritaria, dando a Biden una ventaja de 13 puntos, la misma que obtuvo Hillary Clinton. Lo llamativo en los sondeos de CNN es que las mujeres con educación superior habrían cambiado de bando para respaldar al presidente por un punto de ventaja sobre su rival.

Trump ha logrado además hacer de los votantes republicanos un fortín sin apenas fisuras, pese al dinero que se han gastado organización de desafectos del partido como el Lincoln Project o los intentos de Biden para acercarse a sus cuadros más moderados. De un 90% de apoyo en 2016 ha pasado al 93%.

Tampoco ha habido la deserción que se esperaba entre los pensionistas, los más castigados por la pandemia, un tema secundario para el votante republicano, mucho más preocupado por la economía y la seguridad. Los mayores de 45 años son la base del trumpismo, un movimiento que tardará en desaparecer, por más que el magnate pierda las elecciones.
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