The Snake Is Leaving, But the Plague Persists

Published in El País
(Spain) on 27 December 2020
by Francisco G. Basterra (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Kaitlyn Diehl. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
The European Union must take advantage of the strategic opportunity granted by this international disorder.

The snake of the White House is leaving, but the dragon of the virus continues to threaten a cowering mankind, whose movements are paralyzed and emotions are frozen in an unprecedented state of alarm. This is the curse of a catastrophic 2020. Nevertheless, like all great crises, it opens up opportunities that will come from the likes of science, the vaccine and the truth. The cursed year of the plague will bring us something good. Let us humbly admit our innate fragility. As Carl Sagan explained, the earth is just "a pale blue dot in the universe.” But we aren't prepared for the worst of times; only a handful of citizens remain who lived through the atrocious Spanish flu of 1918, which — coinciding with the end of World War II — decimated the world, causing between 50 and 100 million deaths. Today, I wonder how our parents could have lived through the Christmas of 1936, in the middle of a civil war.

In Europe, we make way for 2021 with the United Kingdom’s Brexit — agreed to be an expected financial failure, but finally no longer considered chaotic. It’s a return to "splendid isolation" in order to regain control over a sovereignty that's no longer possible in the 21st century, as well as confidence that the city of London will continue to be the financial capital of Europe — although the exit agreement doesn't include the service sector.

Scotland is announcing that it still wants to be in the EU and will prepare a new independence referendum. Good luck to little England, which has chosen the open sea; the continent won’t fair well losing an important partner. The United Kingdom won’t make good deals, and the EU will notice its absence in defense and intelligence matters. Winston Churchill was right when he said, "We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked but not combined."

Boris Johnson and Donald Trump, two extravagant populists born in New York, have devalued the Anglosphere. Their legacy, especially in the case of the United States, leaves a geostrategic vacuum that has been well exploited by Vladimir Putin's Russia and, to a greater extent, by Xi Jinping's China. Moscow is going back to being the backboard of the Middle East and is testing its cyber warfare for another "cold" era. There will be a massive intrusion into the heart of the U.S. institutional system by the heirs of the KGB. We still don't know what compromising details the Kremlin Czar had on Trump in order to retain his devotion to the end.

The deterioration of the United States, which we've been talking about for a long time, continues to be shocking news — even prematurely. Otto von Bismarck, the "iron chancellor" of Germany, warned, "There is a special providence for drunkards, fools and the United States of America." The European Union must take advantage of the strategic opportunity granted by this international disorder.

Happy 2022, because 2021 won’t meet the conditions to do it all. Success and happiness are never complete.


Se va el caimán de la Casa Blanca, pero persiste el dragón del virus con su amenaza a una humanidad encogida, paralizada en sus movimientos y con las emociones congeladas por un estado de alarma inédito. Esta es la maldición de un 2020 catastrófico que, sin embargo, como toda gran crisis abre oportunidades: vendrán de la mano de la ciencia, la vacuna y la verdad. Algo bueno nos traerá el maldito año de la plaga. Admitamos con humildad nuestra esencial fragilidad. La Tierra, como nos explicó Carl Sagan, es solo “un pálido punto azul en el universo”. Pero tampoco braceamos en el peor de los tiempos. Quedan solo un puñado de ciudadanos que vivieron la atroz gripe española que en 1918, coincidiendo con el final de la Gran Guerra, diezmó al mundo provocando entre 50 y 100 millones de muertos. Me pregunto hoy cómo vivirían nuestros padres la Navidad de 1936, en plena Guerra Civil.

En Europa damos paso al 2021 con el Brexit del Reino Unido. Una quiebra esperada, pero finalmente no caótica, acordada. Regreso al “espléndido aislamiento”, a recuperar el control de una soberanía ya imposible en el siglo XXI. Y la confianza de que la City de Londres siga siendo la capital financiera de Europa, aunque el acuerdo de salida no incluye el sector servicios.

Escocia anuncia que quiere seguir en la UE y prepara un nuevo referéndum de independencia. Suerte a la Pequeña Inglaterra que ha elegido el mar abierto. El continente no se rinde, pierde a un socio importante. El Reino Unido no hace un buen negocio y la UE notará su ausencia en asuntos de Defensa e Inteligencia. Acertó Churchill al explicar que “estamos con Europa, pero no formamos parte de ella. Estamos vinculados, pero no comprometidos”.

Dos populistas, extravagantes, nacidos en Nueva York, Johnson y Trump, han devaluado la angloesfera. Su herencia, sobre todo en el caso de EE UU, deja un vacío geoestratégico que ha sido bien aprovechado por la Rusia de Putin y, en mayor medida, por la China de Xi. Moscú regresa al tablero de Oriente Próximo y ensaya el arma de la ciberguerra, de momento fría. La intrusión masiva en el corazón del sistema institucional de EE UU realizado por los herederos del KGB. Seguimos sin saber qué elementos comprometedores tenía el zar del Kremlin sobre Trump para mantener la devoción hasta su final.

El declive de Estados Unidos del que llevamos mucho tiempo hablando continúa siendo una noticia bomba aún prematura. Bismarck, el canciller de hierro de Alemania, advirtió de que “Dios tiene una Providencia especial por los tontos, los borrachos y los Estados Unidos”. La UE debe aprovechar la oportunidad estratégica que le concede el desorden internacional.

Feliz 2022, porque 2021 no reúne las condiciones para serlo del todo. El éxito y la felicidad nunca son completos.
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