The Improvement of US-China Relations Starts from the Resumption of Economic and Trade Talks

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 26 March 2021
by Yang Yao (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jaime Cantwell. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Following the U.S.-China high-level strategic dialogue in Anchorage, the media was attracted by the dramatic opening remarks of the talks. Will confrontation become the main tone between China and the United States?

There is a gap between China and the United States in the field of ideology. American elites embrace the "end of history" theory and believe that Western-style democracy is the only acceptable system of human society; therefore, they have deep-rooted hostility toward the Chinese system. They turn a blind eye to the glorious achievements China has made in the past 40 years and point condescendingly at China.

On the other hand, with the improvement in people's living standards, the continuous enhancement of national power and the results of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, China is becoming more and more confident. China is an ancient civilization with a long and uninterrupted history, and contemporary China has inherited the most outstanding elements of Chinese civilization; thus, the Chinese people have every reason to embrace self-confidence. China does not want to export its own system, but it is confident that it can compete with Western-style democratic systems on the international stage. The hostility of American elites toward the Chinese system shows their lack of self-confidence. Especially in the year or so since the outbreak, China's success in fighting the pandemic has made them feel on edge. The ideological dispute between China and the Western world was caused solely by the West. As China's national power rises, the West will use more ideological means to suppress China.

The geopolitical competition between China and the United States will not disappear. The U.S. Navy staged a demonstration in the South China Sea under the guise of "maintaining free navigation," and behind it was the bandit logic of "power is truth." The United States will not give up playing the "Taiwan card," but will often provoke "Taiwan independence" forces to disturb the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Perhaps only when a Chinese nuclear submarine floats on the east coast of the United States will the United States seriously consider whether it should stop in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

In response to geopolitical competition, the United States will not give up its technological suppression of China, because geopolitical competition will ultimately result in the fight for technology. The Donald Trump administration not only prohibited the export of high-tech technologies and inventions to China, but also put over 400 Chinese companies and institutions on the so-called "entity list" and prohibited American companies from exporting high-tech products to them. The reasons given by the United States are ambiguous, even ridiculous, and full of nonsensical logic. For example, a company or university can be included in the list of entities if it has a connection to the military. According to this logic, if China also sets up an entity list, then most research universities in the United States would be included on the list. From the perspective of U.S. high-tech companies, the U.S. government’s ban on the entity list is a policy of "killing 1,000 enemies and losing 800 of your own," because they have lost the Chinese market and the massive revenue needed for innovation.

However, ideology, geopolitics and technological disputes are not the only parts of U.S.-China relations. After 40 years of integration, China and the United States have formed an interdependent relationship in many fields, such as economics, cultural exchange and scientific research; thus, a complete decoupling would be disastrous for both countries. The Joe Biden administration has also criticized the Trump administration’s China policy, especially in the area of economic and trade relations. The Trump administration launched a trade war against China and substantially increased tariffs on Chinese exports, which not only failed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, but also greatly harmed the interests of American consumers. Biden and his staff have repeatedly emphasized that U.S. foreign economic and trade policy will be centered on the interests of domestic workers, whereas Trump's tariff policy failed to return jobs to the U.S. For the Biden administration, Trump's economic and trade policies toward China have caused American workers to suffer double the losses. Under such circumstances, it is possible to restart economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States and gradually remove punitive tariffs.

The technological competition between China and the United States is not without room for maneuver. The global industrial chain has been integrated into almost every country; thus, it is extremely difficult for any country to establish a closed industrial chain in any specific field without paying a huge price. It is wishful thinking that the United States could completely exclude China from the high-tech field in order to curb the pace of China's technological progress. Therefore, the two countries have good reasons to regulate technological competition and restrict competition within a controllable range.

In fact, the U.S.-China Anchorage high-level strategic dialogue has achieved some positive results and formed some consensus. For example, the two sides agreed to establish a U.S.-China joint working group on climate change, agreed to restart personnel exchanges between the two parties as soon as possible depending on the development of the pandemic, agreed to discuss the facilitation of mutual diplomatic and consular agencies' personnel activities as well as media and reporter-related issues in the spirit of reciprocity, and agreed to maintain and strengthen communication and coordination on a series of issues such as bilateral trade, military affairs and global security. This is a good start. I believe there will be more high-level interactions between the two countries this year.

In short, China and the United States will maintain a competitive relationship in the field of ideology and geopolitics, but there is still room for cooperation in the economic and trade field, and there is room for compromise in the technological field. From the Chinese perspective regarding the U.S.'s ideological clamor and criticism of China's internal affairs, we should let the facts speak for themselves by vigorously developing the domestic economy, improving people’s living standards, maintaining social stability and prosperity and building a prosperous political environment. In the field of geopolitics, we should insist on strategic patience, believe that time is on our side and ultimately use our strength to form a new equilibrium in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. In the field of technology, the economy and trade, we should actively restart negotiations with the United States to form new economic and trade rules as well as technology competition rules that are acceptable to both sides.

The impact of this last round of globalization on American society cannot be underestimated. American elites understand that the United States needs room to adjust. The U.S. needs China’s help with this, just as it did after the 2008 global financial crisis; however, the American elite is reluctant to voice this request. U.S.-China relations play a vital role in world peace and prosperity, and neither country can take good care of itself without the other. In this context, adopting a more active attitude to maintain healthy competition and even cooperative relations with the United States is the first choice for China's foreign policy.

The author is the Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University.


中美安克雷奇高层战略对话之后,媒体都被会谈戏剧性的开场白所吸引。对抗是否会成为中美之间的主基调?

中美在意识形态领域存在鸿沟。美国精英怀抱“历史终结论”,认为西式民主是人类社会唯一和最后的制度,因而对中国体制怀有根深蒂固的敌意。他们对中国过去40年所取得的辉煌成就视而不见,居高临下地对中国指手画脚。另一方面,随着民众生活水平的提高、国力的不断增强以及抗击新冠疫情的成果,中国正变得愈发自信。中国是一个有着悠久未间断历史的文明古国,当代中国继承了中华文明的优秀成分,中国人民有充足的理由拥抱自信。中国并不想输出自己的制度,但自信能够在国际舞台上与西式民主制度进行竞争。美国精英所表现的对中国体制的敌意,恰恰说明了他们的不自信。特别是在疫情发生后这一年多以来,中国抗疫的成功越发让他们如坐针毡。中国和西方世界之间的意识形态之争,是西方一手造成的。随着中国国力的上升,西方将更多地用意识形态手段来打压中国。

中美之间的地缘政治竞争也不会消失。美国海军打着“维护自由航行”的幌子到南海示威,背后秉持的是“强权即真理”的强盗逻辑。美国也不会放弃打“台湾牌”,而会时常挑动“台独”势力来搅动台湾海峡的局势。或许只有等到中国的核潜艇在美国东海岸浮起的时候,美国才会认真地考虑是否该在南海、东海以及台湾海峡收手。

与地缘政治竞争相呼应,美国也不会放弃对中国的技术打压,因为地缘政治竞争到最后拼的就是技术。特朗普政府不仅禁止向我国出口高科技领域的技术和发明,还把400多家中国企业和机构列入所谓的“实体清单”,禁止美国企业向它们出口高科技产品。美国给出的理由是模棱两可、甚至是可笑的,充满了强盗逻辑。比如,一个企业或大学与军方有联系就可以被列入实体清单,照这个逻辑,如果中国也搞一个实体清单,那么,美国绝大多数研究型大学都将被列入清单之中。从美国高科技企业的角度来看,美国政府的实体清单禁令是“杀敌一千,自损八百”的政策,因为它们丢掉了中国这个大市场,失去了创新所需的巨额营收。

但是,意识形态、地缘政治和技术之争不是中美关系的全部内容。经过40年的融合,中美两国在经济、人文交流和科学研究等诸多领域形成了你中有我、我中有你的态势,完全脱钩对两国来说都是灾难性的。拜登政府对特朗普政府的对华政策也有不少批评,特别是在经贸关系领域。特朗普政府对中国开打贸易战,大幅度提高中国出口产品的关税,不仅没有降低美国的贸易赤字,而且极大地损害了美国消费者的利益。拜登和他的幕僚们多次强调,美国的对外经贸政策将以国内工人的利益为核心,而特朗普的关税政策并没有让工作岗位回流美国。对拜登政府来说,特朗普的对华经贸政策让美国工人遭受双份损失。在这种情况下,中美之间重启经贸谈判,逐步撤销惩罚性关税是可能的。

中美之间的技术竞争也不是没有回旋的余地。全球产业链已经深入到几乎每个国家,任何一个国家要想在特定领域建立封闭的产业链都是一件极其艰难的事情,非付出巨额代价不能为之。美国希图把中国完全排除在高科技领域之外,以此遏制中国技术进步的步伐,是一厢情愿的想法。两国因此有充分的理由规范技术竞争,把竞争限制在可控的范围之内。

事实上,中美安克雷奇高层战略对话取得了一些积极的成果,形成了一些共识。比如,双方同意建立中美气候变化联合工作组,同意视疫情的发展情况尽快重启双方的人员交流,同意将本着对等互惠的精神就便利彼此外交领事机构和人员活动以及媒体记者相关问题进行商谈,并同意就双边经贸和军事以及全球安全等一系列问题保持和加强沟通和协调。这是一个良好的开端,相信两国今年还会有更多的高层互动。

总之,中美在意识形态和地缘政治领域将维持竞争关系,但在经贸领域仍然有合作的空间,在技术领域有形成妥协的余地。从中方的角度来看,对于美方在意识形态方面的鼓噪以及对我国内政的指手画脚,应让事实说话,大力发展国内经济,提高民众的生活水平,维护社会的稳定和繁荣,建设昌明的政治生态。在地缘政治领域,应坚持战略耐心,相信时间在我们这一边,最终用实力形成南海、东海和台湾海峡的新均衡。在技术和经贸领域,应积极与美方重启谈判,形成双方都能接受的新的经贸规则和技术竞争规则。

上一轮全球化对美国社会的冲击不可低估。美国精英明白,美国需要调整的空间。这个调整需要中国的帮助,正如2008年全球金融危机发生之后一样。但是,美国精英不情愿把这个请求说出来。中美关系对世界和平与繁荣起到至关重要的作用,两国都无法在缺失对方的情况下独善其身。在这个背景下,采取更加积极的姿态与美国保持良性竞争、乃至合作关系,是我国对外政策的首选。(作者是北京大学国家发展研究院院长)
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