Storming the Great Wall of China*

*Editor’s Note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Washington threatens to punish Beijing for not participating in the sanctions war against Russia.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese Communist Party Politburo Member Yang Jiechi held talks in Rome on March 14. During the talks, they discussed the current situation in Ukraine and its impact on regional and global security. The first high-level U.S.-Chinese meeting since the beginning of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine turned into an adversarial negotiation. Washington gave Beijing an ultimatum, threatening to isolate China for its reluctance to stop cooperating with Russia. The U.S. doesn't have any offer that could make China reconsider its position. Therefore, China does not give in to the pressure; instead, it launches a diplomatic counteroffensive, demanding that the U.S. disclose information about its Ukrainian biological laboratories.

The meeting of high-ranking U.S. and Chinese officials in Rome was the first attempt to agree on new rules in the international arena since Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine.

It is symbolic that Sullivan already met with Yang a year ago, on March 18, 2021, in Anchorage, Alaska. The talks between the two superpowers failed spectacularly back then. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had an extremely tense conversation, exchanged mutual accusations and left the meeting empty-handed. Following this, the U.S. threatened to impose more sanctions on China.

The U.S. considered China its top national security threat a year ago. China was accused of a long list of international violations, including cyberattacks and human rights infringements in Hong Kong and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. China was also accused of threatening Taiwan and other countries in the Indo-Pacific. However, the situation has drastically changed since then.

Since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the U.S. and its Western allies have started viewing Moscow as the No. 1 threat. In this regard, the U.S. administration has implemented the same sanctions strategy that it tried on China before: It imposed a lot of sweeping sanctions on Russia, which are unprecedented in the history of world politics. No wonder the previous American accusations toward China were considered irrelevant during the recent talks in Rome.

The American delegation headed by Sullivan, which included representatives of the National Security Council and the U.S. State Department, attempted to negotiate ways to prevent Russia from playing its "Chinese trump card" in the context of the unfolding war of sanctions.

Speaking about the Sullivan-Yang talks in Rome, National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said that U.S. and China discussed “ongoing efforts to manage the competition between the two countries and […] the impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on regional and global security.” She also pointed out that the U.S. and China needed to maintain open lines of communication.

In his interview with CNN, Sullivan, head of the U.S. delegation in Rome, mentioned what actions Washington is currently expecting from Beijing. “We also are watching closely to see the extent to which China actually does provide any form of support, material support or economic support, to Russia. And we will not stand by and allow any country to compensate Russia for its losses from the economic sanctions,” Sullivan said. However, he avoided answering the follow-up question as to what measures the U.S. was ready to implement against Beijing. Moreover, he made it clear that he did not intend to discuss it publicly. "We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts.… We will not allow that to go forward and allow there to be a lifeline to Russia from these economic sanctions from any country, anywhere in the world," Sullivan remarked harshly.

After Sullivan's interview with CNN on Sunday night, quoting an anonymous U.S. administration official, major U.S. media outlets reported that Moscow allegedly asked Beijing for military aid. However, the source did not specify what kind of equipment or weapons they were referring to. The news about possible Chinese military support to Russia has gone viral, which took Beijing by surprise. "This is the first time I've heard about it," said a representative of the Chinese embassy in Washington with bewilderment.

Speaking to reporters at a daily briefing in Beijing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said that the U.S. has "been spreading disinformation targeting China on the Ukraine issue, with malicious intentions."

The Chinese diplomat urged the U.S. to be open about its Ukrainian biological laboratories. According to him, the international community is becoming increasingly concerned about American biomilitary activities in Ukraine, given that dozens of biological laboratories have been established in the country to serve the interests of the U.S. Department of Defense, which had already invested $200 million in these facilities. "The American side has always promoted the so-called openness and transparency. If the U.S. wants to prove the sincerity of its activities, why does not it open these biological laboratories for independent research by international experts?" Zhao said.

Earlier, Wang had stated that Chinese-Russian relations are "as strong as a rock." He also stressed that new sanctions against Russia would have disastrous consequences for the global economy, particularly for global financial stability and energy supply chains.

However, the U.S.-China talks in Rome demonstrate that there will be more pressure on China in the near future because Beijing can help Moscow alleviate the current economic crisis.

"Everything that is happening around Russia today is a wake-up call for China. Theoretically speaking, the U.S. and its allies can find plenty of instruments to punish Beijing if they purposefully seek them out. For example, China keeps $1 trillion in U.S. treasuries. If at some point we admit that there are no more rules, then the U.S. can freeze these assets, the same way it has already done with the Russian Central Bank's assets. In addition, Chinese airlines, similar to Russian airlines, consist of Airbus and Boeing aircrafts. If necessary, the U.S. and its allies could ground Chinese commercial flights in a matter of weeks. The U.S. can also isolate China from maritime trade by prohibiting international shipping companies from entering Chinese ports," said Alexander Lomanov, deputy director of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Undoubtedly, he gives an extensive list of possible threats and risks that China might face if it continues to support Russia. However, Lomanov believes that all of the above-listed scenarios should be considered hypothetical at this point since new restrictions against China could cause such turbulence that the global economy might not survive. "All this will only be possible if the U.S. decides to double down on efforts to prevent China from supporting Russia. Anyway, China will continue to resist this pressure because Washington has nothing else to offer but threats," Lomanov summed up.