Why Does Cross-Strait Peace Require US Protection of Taiwan?

Published in The United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 11 December 2024
by Lin Gongzheng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
In an exclusive interview with NBC, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump was asked whether he would commit to defending Taiwan if China invaded the island on his watch. “I never say,” was Trump’s response. He also revealed that he had been in touch with mainland Chinese President Xi Jinping, but that he had not sent him a message not to invade Taiwan.

Trump has thus far said nothing to offer the Taiwanese government and people comfort or contentment, neither during his campaign nor since being elected.

During the election, Trump stated in an interview on The Joe Rogan Experience that Taiwan had stolen the U.S. semiconductor business; he went on to say that Taiwan wanted U.S. protection, but that Taiwan had not paid for such protection, arguing how the mob collects protection money. In an earlier exclusive with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump also claimed the U.S. was no different than an insurance company and that it needed to collect premiums from Taiwan.

Trump’s words are making people from all walks of life in Taiwan uneasy, especially since John Bolton, the first Trump administration’s national security advisor, told the BBC he feared for Taiwan should Trump return to the White House — another statement that stirred up a wide sense of foreboding.

Bolton was concerned because he believes Trump is easily manipulated by the leaders of countries like China and Russia and that Trump may even abandon Taiwan. And now, with barely a month to go before Trump returns to the White House, instead of promising to defend Taiwan, Trump is saying that he has a very good relationship with Xi and that the two have continued to communicate since his he won reelection. Many people now don't know what to think about this.

Nothing Trump has said, either before or since the election, has been friendly to Taiwan, so what is his attitude likely to be, once he officially takes office? And if we were a “normal” country, would it even be normal to be constantly on tenterhooks over Trump’s remarks?

Why does Taiwan need or hope for protection from the U.S.? It is not because the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may cross swords with each other. In reality, it is because the enemy (the Chinese Communist Party) is strong, we are weak, and if hostilities were to erupt across the strait, it would be only natural for Taiwan to hope for, and need, the U.S. — and even Japan — to lend a helping hand. But if the two sides live together peacefully, then why would we need the U.S. to defend us?

Many years ago, the CCP formulated three prerequisites for the use of military force against Taiwan: First, if Taiwan declares independence; second, if there is unrest in Taiwan; and third, if external forces intervene in Taiwan. If none of these three conditions occurs, the CCP has no basis to attack Taiwan. So whether there is an “incident” between the two sides of the strait depends on the wisdom of Taiwan’s leaders. In other words, we should solve the problems between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait by ourselves, rather than look to the U.S. for support.

The cross-strait ceasefire since the CCP stopped its bombardment of Kinmen has held for more than 40 years, and not since the opening of cross-strait exchanges in the later years of former President Chiang Ching-kuo’s term has there been any need to rekindle hostilities between the two sides. During Ma Ying-jeou’s term as president of the Republic of China, the two sides did not just have friendly exchanges; both sides’ leaders held the Ma-Xi meeting of 2015. If peace can be maintained on both sides of strait, where is the harm in Trump not promising to defend Taiwan?


兩岸和平怎需美國保台

2024-12-11 05:59 聯合報/ 林公正/資深媒體工作者(高雄市)

美國總統當選人川普在美國國家廣播公司(NBC)的專訪中,被問到如果中國大陸在其任內入侵台灣,是否承諾保衛台灣?川普回答「我不會說」。川普並透露曾與中國大陸國家主席習近平溝通,但沒向習近平傳達別入侵台灣。

川普無論是在競選期間或是當選之後,至今還沒有一句話是讓台灣朝野聽了能安心或開心的。

大選中,川普接受「喬羅根體驗」訪問時,說台灣偷了美國的晶片生意;又說台灣希望美國提供保護,但台灣沒為這項保護付錢,還強調黑幫可是會收保護費的。前此,川普接受彭博商業周刊專訪時,也聲稱美國跟保險公司沒兩樣,要向台灣收保險費。

川普這些話,在在讓台灣各界忐忑不安,尤其是川普執政時期的國安顧問波頓,在接受BBC訪問時,指稱如果川普重返白宮,他為台灣非常擔心,因為台灣可能會遭殃,這話令很多人「頭殼抱著熱」。

波頓之所以為台灣擔心,是因他認為川普易受大陸及俄羅斯等國領導人操控,甚至可能拋棄台灣。而今距川普重返白宮還有一個多月,川普不但不承諾保衛台灣,反而說他與習近平關係非常良好,他當選後兩人持續交流。這些話,很多人聽了都不知該如何是好。

選前選後,川普的談話,沒有一句是對台灣友善的,待他正式就任後,對台灣又會是何種態度?但如若我們是一個「正常」的國家,時時對川普的談話提心吊膽,這是正常的嗎?

台灣為何需要或希望美國保護,不就是因為兩岸可能兵戎相見,現實中敵(中共)強我弱,一旦兩岸燃起砲火,台灣當然希望也需要美國甚至日本伸出援手。但如果兩岸相安無事,我們何需美國保衛?

中共多年前就已擬定對台用兵三前提:一是台灣宣布獨立,二是台灣內部發生動亂,三是外部勢力介入台灣;如果上述三情況沒有任何一項發生,中共就絕無藉口攻打台灣,也就是說兩岸會否「有事」,端賴台灣領導人有無足夠智慧,也就是兩岸之間的問題,我們應該靠自己解決,而不是仰仗美國。

一九七九年中共停止對金門砲擊之後,兩岸已停火四十餘年,尤其在經國先生治國後期開放兩岸交流之後,兩岸已無重燃戰火的必要性。馬英九擔任總統期間,兩岸不僅友善交流,雙方領導人並於二○一五年進行馬習會。設若兩岸都能維持和平,川普承諾不承諾保衛台灣,又有何妨?
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