Since Donald Trump’s first term, industrial investors eager to optimize their production costs have viewed Vietnam as an alternative to China. Hence, there has been significant migration of capital to a country where it is possible to find cheaper labor and to have a better qualified workforce than China offers. The interest of new producers has been supported by beneficial trade agreements signed by Vietnam with several trans-Pacific and European countries. Vehement U.S. animosity toward China has added value to Vietnam for those adverse to taking sides in a potential conflict.
The distortions on the supply side that the COVID crisis generated also required importers and exporters to find alternative routes for supply chains that had been so efficiently dominated by China. Vietnam's geographical location benefits those who trade with Asia for lower transportation costs and delivery times, even though neither its productive infrastructure nor its size can be compared with those of China.
China was the first to recognize that Vietnam could become a safe haven; an important segment of Chinese manufacturers moved into Vietnam as part of a strategy aimed at circumventing U.S. sanctions. Last year, Chinese investors placed $4.73 billion on Vietnamese soil; over the first three months of 2025, $1.47 billion have already been recorded, 70% more than in the first quarter of 2024. In this same period, a third of the companies registered for new ventures in Vietnam are Chinese. We are talking about 351 new projects in the first quarter!
Therefore, Vietnam is therefore a favorite destination today when it comes to escaping China’s vulnerability. This is true for large-scale and global technology corporations such as Apple, which already has plants in partnership with local entrepreneurs. Currently, the assembly of AirPods, iPads and the Apple Watch today provides a significant number of jobs for the Vietnamese economy.
This is how Vietnam has become a current focus of attention in the face of the global trade war into which the United States has plunged us. At present, for example, approximately 20% of clothing and 34% of footwear imported to the United States now come from Vietnam.
But it is in the technological sphere where qualitative change is even greater, due to the added value it embodies. Important transnational corporations have relocated production projects, including electricity, electronics, processing, infrastructure, renewable energy and vehicles. Thus, the connection between China and Vietnam is strengthening Vietnam as a dominant actor in the supply chain of electronic products for which the United States is a major consumer.
The exodus of Chinese companies to Vietnam is causing Washington to look carefully at its relationship with this close trading partner of Beijing: Both countries have each other's backs. Many Vietnamese companies rely on China as the main source of their supplies. Thus, the interest of both sides in strengthening their productive ties will deepen to the extent that future global trade is altered by the Trumpian policies.
The message is unmistakable: there are no absolute guarantees and state sovereignty is conditional when it clashes with the interests of powerful states.
The message is unmistakable: there are no absolute guarantees and state sovereignty is conditional when it clashes with the interests of powerful states.