Calm in Iran Doesn’t Mean Peace Yet
Published in Rzeczpospolita
(Poland) on 24 June 2025
by Jędrzej Bielecki (link to original)
(Poland) on 24 June 2025
by Jędrzej Bielecki (link to original)
Translated from
by Danuta Kowalska.
Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
Donald Trump wants to end the war quickly in the Middle East. Will he do better with Israel and Iran than he did with Russia and Ukraine?
This time the president was very upset. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” Trump said Tuesday before departing for a NATO summit in The Hague. This is how he reacted to reports of Israeli and Iranian violations of the cease-fire announced a few hours earlier by the White House.
No One Knows What Happened to the Enriched Uranium Iran Once Had
Will the wrath of the American leader prove effective? In the short run, that seems to be the case. It is doubtful that after the spectacular assault by U.S. bombers on the main Iranian uranium enrichment facility, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would openly oppose Trump. Similarly, the ayatollahs’ regime, after suffering a heavy defeat at Israel’s hands, has no interest in confronting Washington. At this point, it has to focus on its own survival.
But in the long run, things may look different. The International Atomic Energy Agency says it does not know what has happened to the 400 kilograms (approximately 882 pounds) of enriched uranium Iran had. Tehran has certainly retained the knowledge of the technology needed to build an atomic bomb. If somewhere it has also managed to hide the centrifuges needed for further processing of the raw material, it may be tempted to return in secret to its halted nuclear program. The humiliated regime will then contemplate fierce retaliation on Israel.
The Isolationists within the MAGA Movement Didn't Support the Overthrow of the Iranian Regime
In this situation, we cannot rule out that the only way for lasting peace is to overthrow the theocratic regime in Iran. George H. W. Bush faced a similar dilemma after the successful Desert Storm operation and the liberation of Kuwait in 1991. At the time, he decided not to go further and overthrow Saddam Hussein. Twelve years later, America had to invade Iraq again, this time failing in the end.
Trump certainly had this history lesson in mind. He suggested that America could kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Eventually, not without pressure from isolationists in his own political camp, he did not proceed. It's too early to tell whether he did the right thing.
This time the president was very upset. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” Trump said Tuesday before departing for a NATO summit in The Hague. This is how he reacted to reports of Israeli and Iranian violations of the cease-fire announced a few hours earlier by the White House.
No One Knows What Happened to the Enriched Uranium Iran Once Had
Will the wrath of the American leader prove effective? In the short run, that seems to be the case. It is doubtful that after the spectacular assault by U.S. bombers on the main Iranian uranium enrichment facility, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would openly oppose Trump. Similarly, the ayatollahs’ regime, after suffering a heavy defeat at Israel’s hands, has no interest in confronting Washington. At this point, it has to focus on its own survival.
But in the long run, things may look different. The International Atomic Energy Agency says it does not know what has happened to the 400 kilograms (approximately 882 pounds) of enriched uranium Iran had. Tehran has certainly retained the knowledge of the technology needed to build an atomic bomb. If somewhere it has also managed to hide the centrifuges needed for further processing of the raw material, it may be tempted to return in secret to its halted nuclear program. The humiliated regime will then contemplate fierce retaliation on Israel.
The Isolationists within the MAGA Movement Didn't Support the Overthrow of the Iranian Regime
In this situation, we cannot rule out that the only way for lasting peace is to overthrow the theocratic regime in Iran. George H. W. Bush faced a similar dilemma after the successful Desert Storm operation and the liberation of Kuwait in 1991. At the time, he decided not to go further and overthrow Saddam Hussein. Twelve years later, America had to invade Iraq again, this time failing in the end.
Trump certainly had this history lesson in mind. He suggested that America could kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Eventually, not without pressure from isolationists in his own political camp, he did not proceed. It's too early to tell whether he did the right thing.
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