Ukraine, Unarmed
Trump withdraws his offer of long-range missiles, leaving Kyiv without leverage against Russia in a forced negotiation.
Donald Trump is reluctant to supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles so it can have weapons of a similar range to those used by Vladimir Putin in the growing attacks against the Ukrainian people. That’s how Volodymyr Zelenskyy put it in his meeting at the White House on Friday, this time without any ambushes or threats.
Hailed as a peacemaker who brought an end to the war in Gaza upon returning from his tour of the Middle East, Trump expressed his intention to achieve the same feat in Ukraine and therefore agreed with the idea of supplying it with missiles as a way of putting pressure on Putin. Within a few hours, a phone call from the Russian president changed Trump’s initial agreement with Zelenskyy.
The Tomahawk isn’t a miraculous weapon that can destabilize the war in the favor of Ukraine, a country that doesn’t even have the loaders for this kind of missile, whose range of action would allow for the destruction of military infrastructure deep in Russian territory. Neither does Kyiv have submarines or ships from which to launch them, nor even land-based launchers, which it would have to acquire, build or adapt.
There are two disincentives behind Trump's stinginess regarding sale of the weapon to Ukraine (incidentally, at the expense of European pockets). The first is that it is an exceptional and scarce weapon that the United States cannot easily do without. The second is that Putin would interpret the U.S. even merely supplying them to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation of the war. And if Trump were to agree, there would be no short-term impact on the current balance of power: many months would pass – probably not until 2027 – before the weapons could be used. That’s another reason for Trump’s refusal – he wanted them much sooner than that.
Moscow’s flattering congratulations for Trump’s success in the Middle East or for his proposals to invest in Russian energy also had an influence. These were accompanied by exuberant predictions of an inevitable Russian victory that could have made an impression on someone who loves winners above all else and hates losers and who has changed Ukraine's role from ally to impartial mediator.
The Russian hawks are right about the impossibility of differentiating between a nuclear-powered Tomahawk and a conventional one, an argument they use to justify a possible nuclear response. They don’t, however, acknowledge that several models of missiles launched by Russia against Ukraine also have nuclear capabilities and that, as of yet, their threatened use has not received an equal response from Ukraine.
Trump is now going back to square one and, for the summit that he intends to hold in Budapest within the coming weeks, he wants to propose to Putin an immediate and unconditional truce or ceasefire on the current line. This is exactly what Zelenskyy has already accepted and what Putin has wasted no time in rejecting, because Putin wants the final peace deal to include as many of his ambitions as possible. With Viktor Orbán hosting, Putin will have another opportunity to improve his worldwide reputation in the only EU country that doesn’t intend to enforce the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. He will also be able to give Trump the runaround, adding more impossible demands on Zelenskyy to end the war that began nearly three years ago and whose end is entirely in Putin’s hands.
Nothing suggests that Putin will accept the same ceasefire in Budapest that he rejected in Alaska on Aug. 15. Without Trump’s Tomahawks or any other symbol of support for the country under attack to serve as a means of pressure, Ukraine will only be able to count on its European allies, who are excluded from all summits on Ukraine, to stop Putin from getting his way.
Donald Trump is reluctant to supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles so it can have weapons of a similar range to those used by Vladimir Putin in the growing attacks against the Ukrainian people. That’s how Volodymyr Zelenskyy put it in his meeting at the White House on Friday, this time without any ambushes or threats.
Hailed as a peacemaker who brought an end to the war in Gaza upon returning from his tour of the Middle East, Trump expressed his intention to achieve the same feat in Ukraine and therefore agreed with the idea of supplying it with missiles as a way of putting pressure on Putin. Within a few hours, a phone call from the Russian president changed Trump’s initial agreement with Zelenskyy.
The Tomahawk isn’t a miraculous weapon that can destabilize the war in the favor of Ukraine, a country that doesn’t even have the loaders for this kind of missile, whose range of action would allow for the destruction of military infrastructure deep in Russian territory. Neither does Kyiv have submarines or ships from which to launch them, nor even land-based launchers, which it would have to acquire, build or adapt.
There are two disincentives behind Trump's stinginess regarding sale of the weapon to Ukraine (incidentally, at the expense of European pockets). The first is that it is an exceptional and scarce weapon that the United States cannot easily do without. The second is that Putin would interpret the U.S. even merely supplying them to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation of the war. And if Trump were to agree, there would be no short-term impact on the current balance of power: many months would pass – probably not until 2027 – before the weapons could be used. That’s another reason for Trump’s refusal – he wanted them much sooner than that.
Moscow’s flattering congratulations for Trump’s success in the Middle East or for his proposals to invest in Russian energy also had an influence. These were accompanied by exuberant predictions of an inevitable Russian victory that could have made an impression on someone who loves winners above all else and hates losers and who has changed Ukraine's role from ally to impartial mediator.
The Russian hawks are right about the impossibility of differentiating between a nuclear-powered Tomahawk and a conventional one, an argument they use to justify a possible nuclear response. They don’t, however, acknowledge that several models of missiles launched by Russia against Ukraine also have nuclear capabilities and that, as of yet, their threatened use has not received an equal response from Ukraine.
Trump is now going back to square one and, for the summit that he intends to hold in Budapest within the coming weeks, he wants to propose to Putin an immediate and unconditional truce or ceasefire on the current line. This is exactly what Zelenskyy has already accepted and what Putin has wasted no time in rejecting, because Putin wants the final peace deal to include as many of his ambitions as possible. With Viktor Orbán hosting, Putin will have another opportunity to improve his worldwide reputation in the only EU country that doesn’t intend to enforce the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. He will also be able to give Trump the runaround, adding more impossible demands on Zelenskyy to end the war that began nearly three years ago and whose end is entirely in Putin’s hands.
Nothing suggests that Putin will accept the same ceasefire in Budapest that he rejected in Alaska on Aug. 15. Without Trump’s Tomahawks or any other symbol of support for the country under attack to serve as a means of pressure, Ukraine will only be able to count on its European allies, who are excluded from all summits on Ukraine, to stop Putin from getting his way.
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