Drones Targeting Putin? US Security Guarantees for Ukraine Would Be Worthless as Proposed
Donald Trump let Putin fill him in and took his word instead of examining the accusations. How can Kyiv be expected to rely on U.S. security guarantees given the circumstances?
The atmosphere was good. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump emphasized on Sunday evening, after their meeting at Mar‑a‑Lago, that they were 95% done. They said there had been a lot of progress on the security guarantees the U.S. proposes to provide Ukraine after a peace deal — and that they were almost in agreement. A U.S. official, speaking behind the scenes, described these guarantees as the “platinum standard.” Two days later, it’s obvious that these wouldn’t be worth much, even if Russia were someday to agree to a peace plan acceptable to the U.S. and Kyiv.
Because they all have a catch: If it were to be accepted that Ukraine is the aggressor and not Russia, allied states would not be obliged to provide assistance. This all makes sense so far, and that’s how almost all other security guarantees work too. That said, in this particular case, any ambiguities would be settled by a peace council, whose chairman would, of course, be Trump.
The same Trump whose first reaction the day after his meeting with Zelenskyy — during a phone call with Vladimir Putin — was to believe the latter’s story about an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on his country estate without first verifying it. Would Trump, in the event of uncertainty, mobilize the U.S. military to oppose a Russian assault on Ukraine if the Kremlin — as it allegedly did ahead of the 2022 full-scale invasion — is manufacturing claims of Ukrainian attacks? Probably not.
The atmosphere was good. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump emphasized on Sunday evening, after their meeting at Mar‑a‑Lago, that they were 95% done. They said there had been a lot of progress on the security guarantees the U.S. proposes to provide Ukraine after a peace deal — and that they were almost in agreement. A U.S. official, speaking behind the scenes, described these guarantees as the “platinum standard.” Two days later, it’s obvious that these wouldn’t be worth much, even if Russia were someday to agree to a peace plan acceptable to the U.S. and Kyiv.
Because they all have a catch: If it were to be accepted that Ukraine is the aggressor and not Russia, allied states would not be obliged to provide assistance. This all makes sense so far, and that’s how almost all other security guarantees work too. That said, in this particular case, any ambiguities would be settled by a peace council, whose chairman would, of course, be Trump.
The same Trump whose first reaction the day after his meeting with Zelenskyy — during a phone call with Vladimir Putin — was to believe the latter’s story about an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on his country estate without first verifying it. Would Trump, in the event of uncertainty, mobilize the U.S. military to oppose a Russian assault on Ukraine if the Kremlin — as it allegedly did ahead of the 2022 full-scale invasion — is manufacturing claims of Ukrainian attacks? Probably not.
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