A Whole Different Ballgame
From the start, Trump probably had his success in Venezuela in mind as a model for his war of aggression against Iran.
One month after the U.S. and Israel began their war, which violates international law, the consequences for the Iranian population have been devastating. According to official figures, more than 1,900 people have been killed, thousands of civilian buildings have been destroyed, power plants damaged. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 3 million people are fleeing from bombs within the country. The internet in Iran has been shut down for weeks, which is strengthening the uncertainty. This is not what liberation looks like.
The initial celebrating among people in the diaspora, who were hoping that the war of aggression would bring a regime change, has gone silent. Since then the regime has consolidated its power, and the "regime change" fantasies of the hawks in Washington and Israel now appear to be off the table. U.S. president Donald Trump boasts of already bombing 13,000 targets, with another few thousand more targets remaining, making no secret of how he is primarily concerned with Iran's oil.
In doing so, he is relying on his usual mix of threats and offers of talks, in order to extort a favorable "deal." On the one hand, he threatens Iran with an invasion of U.S. soldiers and "destroying" the oil island, Kharg, and all the power plants in Iran. But on the other hand, he is already claiming that a "regime change" has taken place in Iran, and that negotiations with its representatives in Pakistan are progressing "very well."
Trump had likely hoped to repeat his success in Venezuela, where he quickly struck a deal with Nicolás Maduro's successors following the leader’s abduction. But he underestimated that Iran would be a whole different ballgame. Now he is looking for a way out. The bad news: If the war ends now, Iran will face threats of further arrests, more executions, and further repression. But real change cannot be bombed in from the outside; it can only come from within. Let's hope that some time after the war, conditions for change will become more favorable again.
One month after the U.S. and Israel began their war, which violates international law, the consequences for the Iranian population have been devastating. According to official figures, more than 1,900 people have been killed, thousands of civilian buildings have been destroyed, power plants damaged. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 3 million people are fleeing from bombs within the country. The internet in Iran has been shut down for weeks, which is strengthening the uncertainty. This is not what liberation looks like.
The initial celebrating among people in the diaspora, who were hoping that the war of aggression would bring a regime change, has gone silent. Since then the regime has consolidated its power, and the "regime change" fantasies of the hawks in Washington and Israel now appear to be off the table. U.S. president Donald Trump boasts of already bombing 13,000 targets, with another few thousand more targets remaining, making no secret of how he is primarily concerned with Iran's oil.
In doing so, he is relying on his usual mix of threats and offers of talks, in order to extort a favorable "deal." On the one hand, he threatens Iran with an invasion of U.S. soldiers and "destroying" the oil island, Kharg, and all the power plants in Iran. But on the other hand, he is already claiming that a "regime change" has taken place in Iran, and that negotiations with its representatives in Pakistan are progressing "very well."
Trump had likely hoped to repeat his success in Venezuela, where he quickly struck a deal with Nicolás Maduro's successors following the leader’s abduction. But he underestimated that Iran would be a whole different ballgame. Now he is looking for a way out. The bad news: If the war ends now, Iran will face threats of further arrests, more executions, and further repression. But real change cannot be bombed in from the outside; it can only come from within. Let's hope that some time after the war, conditions for change will become more favorable again.
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