There Are Several Explanations for Trump’s About-Face on Ukraine. All of Them Are Alarming
Is it the high price of diesel and its consequences for the midterms, his long-standing admiration for Putin — or does the Kremlin leader have him in his grasp?
Donald Trump's sympathy for Vladimir Putin and his aversion to Volodymyr Zelenskyy have been known for a long time. It has been plain to see since the debacle in the White House during the Ukrainian president's visit in February 2025. Nevertheless, over the past year and a half, the U.S. president has not fully withdrawn military and political support for Ukraine in its fight against the Russian aggressor.
This changed after Trump's phone conversation with Putin on Oct. 9, during which the two agreed on a deal for the supply of Russian diesel fuel. Since then, Trump has adopted the same dishonest rhetoric as the Kremlin regarding the war in Ukraine and has restricted U.S. military aid, leaving Ukraine defenseless against Russian missile and drone attacks — which could help Putin win the war.
Europeans and many Americans are reacting with disbelief to this about-face, which goes against everything that U.S. foreign policy has stood for over the past 80 years. Everyone wonders just what was said on that phone call to make Trump an accomplice of a brutal dictator, who, on top of all that, is also supporting America's enemy in the Iran war.
A Way Out of the Election Debacle
There are three possible explanations: Trump is seeking a scapegoat, which he cannot be, for his party’s catastrophic poll numbers before the midterms. He is convinced that the high diesel prices in the U.S. will cost the Republicans the election, and he blames this solely on the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. He blindly ignores the fact that his own war against Iran is the far greater contributing factor.
Thus, in his mind, Zelenskyy becomes the enemy who must be destroyed, and he mistakenly hopes that the diesel deal with Putin can save him from election disaster. Added to this is perhaps the hope for a lucrative business deal with Russia for his country and his family, which Putin may have once again promised him.
Admiration for Putin
The second explanation, shared by most commentators, emphasizes Trump's admiration for Putin as a strongman who can achieve his goals without the burdensome constraints of democracy. According to this view, during the phone call, Putin somehow convinced his admirer, Trump, that he wanted to end the war, and that only the stubborn Zelenskyy — whom Trump has always hated — stood in the way of a peace agreement. When Zelenskyy criticized Trump, Trump came to realize who was his friend and who was his foe.
Compromising Material
But for the third explanation, there is an even more shocking reason, and that can be summed up by the word "kompromat." For more than a decade, there have been indications that Putin is in possession of material from earlier years that is compromising to Trump. There was no evidence of this [at the time], and none exists today. But there are reasons to believe that the Kremlin leader has been strategically biding his time, waiting for this moment. He believes Ukraine can be defeated if America abandons it — and then he’ll switch from flattery to blackmail. As far-fetched as these theories sound, they would explain Trump's baffling behavior.
Whatever the reason, the outlook for Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. is bleak.
Donald Trump's sympathy for Vladimir Putin and his aversion to Volodymyr Zelenskyy have been known for a long time. It has been plain to see since the debacle in the White House during the Ukrainian president's visit in February 2025. Nevertheless, over the past year and a half, the U.S. president has not fully withdrawn military and political support for Ukraine in its fight against the Russian aggressor.
This changed after Trump's phone conversation with Putin on Oct. 9, during which the two agreed on a deal for the supply of Russian diesel fuel. Since then, Trump has adopted the same dishonest rhetoric as the Kremlin regarding the war in Ukraine and has restricted U.S. military aid, leaving Ukraine defenseless against Russian missile and drone attacks — which could help Putin win the war.
Europeans and many Americans are reacting with disbelief to this about-face, which goes against everything that U.S. foreign policy has stood for over the past 80 years. Everyone wonders just what was said on that phone call to make Trump an accomplice of a brutal dictator, who, on top of all that, is also supporting America's enemy in the Iran war.
A Way Out of the Election Debacle
There are three possible explanations: Trump is seeking a scapegoat, which he cannot be, for his party’s catastrophic poll numbers before the midterms. He is convinced that the high diesel prices in the U.S. will cost the Republicans the election, and he blames this solely on the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. He blindly ignores the fact that his own war against Iran is the far greater contributing factor.
Thus, in his mind, Zelenskyy becomes the enemy who must be destroyed, and he mistakenly hopes that the diesel deal with Putin can save him from election disaster. Added to this is perhaps the hope for a lucrative business deal with Russia for his country and his family, which Putin may have once again promised him.
Admiration for Putin
The second explanation, shared by most commentators, emphasizes Trump's admiration for Putin as a strongman who can achieve his goals without the burdensome constraints of democracy. According to this view, during the phone call, Putin somehow convinced his admirer, Trump, that he wanted to end the war, and that only the stubborn Zelenskyy — whom Trump has always hated — stood in the way of a peace agreement. When Zelenskyy criticized Trump, Trump came to realize who was his friend and who was his foe.
Compromising Material
But for the third explanation, there is an even more shocking reason, and that can be summed up by the word "kompromat." For more than a decade, there have been indications that Putin is in possession of material from earlier years that is compromising to Trump. There was no evidence of this [at the time], and none exists today. But there are reasons to believe that the Kremlin leader has been strategically biding his time, waiting for this moment. He believes Ukraine can be defeated if America abandons it — and then he’ll switch from flattery to blackmail. As far-fetched as these theories sound, they would explain Trump's baffling behavior.
Whatever the reason, the outlook for Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. is bleak.
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