Supporting Policies Against the Economic Downturn and Slumping US GDP

Published in Yomiuri
(Japan) on 29 July 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Kenny Nagata. Edited by Heather Martin.
That the U.S. economy has decelerated has become clearer. What is needed to boost the economy is drastic.

Preliminary figures released by the U.S. government for real gross domestic product for April through June 2012 showed an increase of a mere 1.5 percent over the previous year. It had been three quarters since there was such low growth above 1 percent.

The main factors are the deterioration of the workforce with the unemployment rate staying above 8 percent, slowed consumer spending and sluggish corporate investments.

At the end of last year, the U.S. economy looked as though it were riding toward recovery, but that energy didn’t last. The U.S. economic standstill continued, and it has been observed that it will decelerate even more in the latter half of this year.

German and French leadership have agreed to a “take all measures” plan in response to the expanding financial insecurity of Spain, but the future is unclear. The stagnant economies of Europe and the U.S. can be considered a part of the global economic volatility.

The problem is that there is a feeling of stalemate concerning American fiscal and monetary policy.

The major cuts in income taxes that former President Bush created after 2001 are set to expire at the end of this year. Also, through a compromise between parties for financial reform, mandatory administrative expenditure cuts will be put into place. The de facto tax increase through the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, as well as expenditure cuts, is called the “fiscal cliff.”

Major budget reductions that would be considered falling off the cliff would be a minus for the economy. In order to soften the shock, President Obama has proposed an extension of the tax cuts for the middle class as the best option.

However, in the lead up to the November presidential election, the opposition Republican Party has sought tax cut extensions that include the wealthy and isn’t open to compromise. A settlement is bound to be postponed until after the election.

Beyond being unable to set forth an immediate and appropriate fiscal policy, they are being confronted by rising expectations for backing an efficient monetary policy.

At the end of June, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board extended an easing of monetary policy by lowering long-term interest rates and increasing the percentage holdings of long-term bonds. However, they launched a third round of quantitative easing as the focus of the markets.

Deterioration of the job market hasn’t stopped; including quantitative easing, they shouldn’t hesitate to have a backup plan in case the European crisis expands and causes further confusion in the markets.

The Federal Reserve Board’s supplement policy could be to accelerate the appreciation of the historically super high-valued yen against the dollar or euro, which could have a serious impact on Japan’s business environment. We wish for the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan to strengthen itself, work toward the prevention of the appreciation of the yen and create a level of monetary easing policy.


米国経済の減速が、一段と鮮明になってきた。思い切った景気テコ入れ策が求められよう。

米国政府が発表した2012年4~6月期の実質国内総生産(GDP)の速報値は、前期比年率で1・5%増にとどまった。1%台の低成長は、3四半期ぶりである。

失業率が8%台に高止まりするなど雇用悪化に伴って、個人消費が伸び悩み、企業の設備投資が低調だったことが主因だ。欧州債務危機の再燃にも影響を受けた。

米国経済は昨年末、いったん景気回復の軌道に乗ったように見えたが、勢いは続かなかった。

米国景気の足踏みは続き、今年後半から来年にかけ、さらに減速するという観測も出ている。

スペインの財政不安拡大に対し、独仏首脳が「あらゆる措置を取る」ことで合意したが、先行きは不透明だ。欧米経済の不振は、世界経済の波乱要素と言える。

問題は、景気を下支えする米国の財政・金融政策に手詰まり感があることだ。

ブッシュ前大統領が01年以降に実施した所得税減税などの大型減税措置は今年末に失効する。財政再建を目指す与野党合意により、来年から政府歳出の強制削減措置も発動される予定だ。

ブッシュ減税失効による事実上の増税と、巨額の歳出カットは、「財政の崖」と呼ばれる。

崖から転落するような超緊縮財政は景気にマイナスだ。ショックを和らげようと、オバマ大統領が中低所得層向けの減税延長を提案したのはもっともである。

しかし、11月の大統領選に向けて対決色を強める野党共和党は富裕層を含めた減税延長を求め、歩み寄りはうかがえない。決着は選挙後に持ち越されそうだ。

適切な財政政策をすぐに打ち出せない以上、当面は、金融政策の下支え効果に期待が高まろう。

米連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)は6月末、長期国債の保有比率を高めて長期金利の低下を促す金融緩和策を半年延長した。だが、市場の焦点だった量的緩和策の第3弾(QE3)は見送った。

雇用情勢の悪化が止まらず、欧州危機拡大で市場が混乱する場合には、QE3を含め、追加策をためらうべきではあるまい。

ただ、FRBの追加策は、ドルやユーロに対する歴史的な超円高を加速させ、日本の景気に深刻な影響を与える可能性がある。政府・日銀は警戒を強め、円高阻止の為替介入や、一段の金融緩和策を検討してもらいたい。
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