Romney Wins in Spite of Big Gaps

Published in La Vanguardia
(Spain) on 5 October 2012
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Pedro Garcés Satué. Edited by .

Edited by Josie Mulberry

In the first of three debates that precede the November 6 election, Republican candidate Mitt Romney won the game against Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate and current president of the United States. This is according to polls released shortly after the debate, which centered on domestic politics and the economy, and was held at the University of Denver early yesterday morning. There were no surprising proposals during the debate and neither candidate explained how they would actually fulfill their promises (for instance, the 12 million new jobs announced by the Republican candidate). However, according to some analysts, Romney was more aggressive. He was well-prepared, handled all data with agility and empathized better with viewers, although it is worth mentioning that he ignored everything about the current situation in Spain, a mistake that might reveal a larger ignorance in terms of international politics.

Obama, on the contrary, was on the defensive. He seemed tired, was slow on the rebuttals and spent most of the time with his head down, perhaps reviewing his notes, but giving the impression that the dialogue did not concern him. A commentator has summed things up by saying both candidates seemed to be playing a different game in the same set: the first, soccer, and the latter, cricket. In any case, Obama had a three-point lead before the debate that is likely to have been significantly reduced now that it’s over. And there’s no doubt that Romney’s presidential career is gaining speed in spite of his blunder: the comment that he considered 47 percent of voters to be dependent on Obama’s social policies and, therefore, voters who could not be won over.

In the era where image is king, even if they do not change the course of the campaigns, debates are weighty, above all if followed by 50 million people. It may happen that candidates’ performances seem more relevant than their own government programs for a period of time. However, that being said, it is perhaps a bit too soon for Romney to be boasting. Firstly, there are still several debates ahead: The next one will be October 11 between Democrat Vice President Joe Biden and Republican hopeful Paul Ryan. The next two debates, again with Obama and Romney, will take place on October 16 and 22, and will be based on foreign policies and general issues, respectively. Secondly, Obama is broadly supported by key social groups such as African Americans, Latinos and women. Meanwhile, Romney is mainly being supported by white voters, pensioners and men. Thirdly, even though 15 percent of voters are still undecided, swing states such as Ohio, Florida and Virginia seem to prefer Obama. Lastly, even though the unemployment rate remains high — 7.2 percent — and economic recovery has been slow, some new data on employment and loan rates are being disclosed that seem positive for Obama.

Romney won the first debate, but there is still a month ahead to discover who will win the electoral battle.


Mitt Romney, candidato republicano, ganó la partida a Barack Obama, candidato demócrata y actual presidente de Estados Unidos, en el primero de sus tres debates previstos antes de las elecciones del 6 de noviembre. Así lo indican los sondeos publicados al poco de terminar dicho debate, que se centró en la política y la economía nacionales, y tuvo lugar durante la madrugada de ayer (hora española) en la Universidad de Denver. No hubo en su transcurso propuestas sorprendentes, ni se especificó cómo se materializarían las promesas formuladas (por ejemplo, los doce millones de nuevos empleos que anunció el republicano). Pero Romney -según los analistas- fue más agresivo, traía la lección bien aprendida, manejó con profusión y soltura los datos, y supo empatizar más y mejor con los telespectadores. Aunque conviene tomar nota del desconocimiento del que hizo gala al referirse a la situación de España. Un error que podría revelar un desconocimiento más general de la política internacional.

Obama, por el contrario, estuvo a la defensiva, parecía fatigado, perdió la ocasión para dar algunas réplicas cantadas y pasó buena parte del debate con la mirada baja, quizás revisando apuntes, pero dando a ratos la impresión de que el diálogo no iba con él. Un comentarista lo ha sintetizado al decir que parecían jugar deportes distintos en un mismo plató: el primero, fútbol americano y el segundo, cricket. Sea como fuere, es probable que la ventaja del demócrata, que antes de este primer encuentro televisivo estaba alrededor de los tres puntos, se haya reducido ligeramente a su término. Y es indudable que la carrera presidencial de Romney recupera velocidad, tras el tropezón que supuso un ofensivo comentario suyo que consideraba al 47% de los electores como personas dependientes de las políticas sociales auspiciadas por Obama y, por tanto, votantes irrecuperables.

En la civilización de la imagen, los debates tienen su peso, en especial si los ven 50 millones de personas, por más que no suelan cambiar el rumbo de las campañas. Puede incluso ocurrir que las impresiones causadas por las actuaciones de los candidatos parezcan por un tiempo más relevantes que sus programas de gobierno. Pero, dicho esto, quizás sea pronto para que Romney lance las campanas al vuelo. En primer lugar, porque quedan varios debates por delante; el próximo -11 de octubre- enfrentará a Joe Biden, actual vicepresidente, y Paul Ryan, que completa el ticket republicano de Romney; los otros dos -uno centrado en la política exterior y otro de ámbito general- volverán a protagonizarlos Obama y Romney, el 16 y el 22 de octubre. En segundo lugar, porque Obama sigue conservando amplias ventajas en grupos sociales clave, como son los afroamericanos, los latinos o las mujeres; entre tanto, Romney le gana en grupos como los votantes de raza blanca, los hombres o los pensionistas. En tercer lugar, porque si bien queda todavía un 15% de votantes indecisos, estados como Ohio, Florida o Virginia, considerados decisivos por ser más tornadizos, parecen ya inclinarse por Obama. Y, en cuarto lugar, y acaso decisivo, porque si bien la tasa de paro sigue muy alta -7,2%- y la recuperación económica ha sido lenta, empiezan a conocerse datos sobre empleo e hipotecas positivos para Obama.

Romney ganó el primer debate, pero queda todavía un mes para saber quién ganará la pugna electoral.
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