Mission Impossible
Published in Braunschweiger Zeitung
(Germany) on 14 April 2013
by Friedemann Dietrichs (link to
original)
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s first major trip abroad will quickly become a "Mission Impossible:” finding a formula for keeping North Korea permanently at bay during his visit to Asia seems as good as impossible, especially in talks with the Chinese leadership. Nobody knows what the North Korean dictatorship really wants, and the interests of Washington and Beijing are not congruent. China is not interested in the U.S. having any particular influence in the Asia-Pacific region, while Barack Obama wants just that. And Japan has no influence on North Korea.
These realities cannot be covered up by empty diplomatic phrases that especially accompany Kerry’s visit to Beijing. The only comfort is the fact that the principle of deterrence has worked so far and North Korea has not converted its apocalyptic threats into action.
It has become apparent multiple times in recent years that Pyongyang is only willing to make significant concessions if the United States provides absolute security guarantees without any preconditions. Barack Obama should consider surprising the young Kim with such an offer, and even offer a one-on-one meeting. This could bring movement into a permanent conflict and put Kim under enormous pressure for action.
These realities cannot be covered up by empty diplomatic phrases that especially accompany Kerry’s visit to Beijing. The only comfort is the fact that the principle of deterrence has worked so far and North Korea has not converted its apocalyptic threats into action.
It has become apparent multiple times in recent years that Pyongyang is only willing to make significant concessions if the United States provides absolute security guarantees without any preconditions. Barack Obama should consider surprising the young Kim with such an offer, and even offer a one-on-one meeting. This could bring movement into a permanent conflict and put Kim under enormous pressure for action.