Sabotage and Attacks: War Without A Declaration of War
Russia’s strategy of spreading uncertainty is already having an effect. Getting Kyiv’s allies to change course would be a huge triumph for Moscow.
This was the week Germany wanted to push back against Russia, deploying several diplomatic tools that had until now gone unused. The German government blamed Moscow for the drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport. As an initial consequence, the lease for the Russian House in Berlin is being terminated, and the Russian Consulate General in Bonn will cease operations.
The expulsion of Russian diplomats is also being considered. These are all sensible measures, and a reciprocal response was to be expected. That response has already come: The Kremlin will close the Goethe-Institutes in Russia, bringing an end to an important pillar of cultural, political, and diplomatic relations. The diplomatic saber-rattling playbook also includes summoning the ambassadors or chargés d’affaires for a serious discussion.
That has happened in Berlin, Moscow, Warsaw, Paris and Brussels. None of this is surprising. It simply follows established diplomatic conventions — arrangements that seem almost unreal in times like these. But is that enough? There was unwavering solidarity from Europe. The EU and NATO countries are well aware of what is happening in Germany right now. The countries on NATO’s so-called eastern flank in particular, as well as those that directly border Russia or Belarus, Putin’s most loyal vassal, know all too painfully what it means to be a strategic target of the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions.
Drones have struck Romania and penetrated Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian airspace. In Poland, an attack on a man with dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizenship was recently thwarted. Finland is increasing its troop presence along the border, while other Nordic and Baltic countries are looking for ways to keep the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea in check. Germany was privately accused of arrogance, particularly from smaller countries, over its attitude toward the threat they face.
But Russia’s hybrid and psychological warfare has now clearly extended to Germany, too. Following Germany’s announcement this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte spoke of a “new normal” that Ukraine’s allies now face. So, is Berlin now at war with Moscow? Formally, no. There has been no declaration of war, nor has Article 5 of the NATO treaty, its collective defense clause, been invoked.
Blurred Lines
For now, Germany does not even want to consider consultations under Article 4, the preliminary stage. But the lines between hybrid and direct warfare are blurred, and Russia is using this to its advantage. After the United States, Berlin is one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters, and as Washington increasingly turns its back on NATO, the EU and commitments to solidarity, the resulting vacuum is ideal for authoritarian rulers. Sowing doubt, or even convincing a large part of the German population to scale back its support for Ukraine — all of that would be a triumph for Moscow.
The knee-jerk reactions to arson attacks on power grids and substations, reports of explosions at a major train station in the south of the country, and the suspected attack on a defense company in Bavaria show that Russia’s strategy of sowing uncertainty is working: Russia could have been behind it, people immediately said, without any evidence whatsoever. On the other hand, it can be seen in statements from the Alternative for Germany and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which exploit the situation to harp on about an unnecessary escalation toward war while none of the cases has yet been solved.
The string of incidents may be coincidental, and investigations must, of course, continue in every case until those responsible are identified. This applies regardless of whether they turn out to be state actors, far-right or far-left extremists pulling the strings, or individuals. The psychological war is in full swing. Whatever you want to call it, Putin, the Kremlin, the Russian government and their playbook should not be underestimated. Moscow has long since achieved at least some of its strategic objectives.
This was the week Germany wanted to push back against Russia, deploying several diplomatic tools that had until now gone unused. The German government blamed Moscow for the drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport. As an initial consequence, the lease for the Russian House in Berlin is being terminated, and the Russian Consulate General in Bonn will cease operations.
The expulsion of Russian diplomats is also being considered. These are all sensible measures, and a reciprocal response was to be expected. That response has already come: The Kremlin will close the Goethe-Institutes in Russia, bringing an end to an important pillar of cultural, political, and diplomatic relations. The diplomatic saber-rattling playbook also includes summoning the ambassadors or chargés d’affaires for a serious discussion.
That has happened in Berlin, Moscow, Warsaw, Paris and Brussels. None of this is surprising. It simply follows established diplomatic conventions — arrangements that seem almost unreal in times like these. But is that enough? There was unwavering solidarity from Europe. The EU and NATO countries are well aware of what is happening in Germany right now. The countries on NATO’s so-called eastern flank in particular, as well as those that directly border Russia or Belarus, Putin’s most loyal vassal, know all too painfully what it means to be a strategic target of the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions.
Drones have struck Romania and penetrated Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian airspace. In Poland, an attack on a man with dual U.S.-Ukrainian citizenship was recently thwarted. Finland is increasing its troop presence along the border, while other Nordic and Baltic countries are looking for ways to keep the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea in check. Germany was privately accused of arrogance, particularly from smaller countries, over its attitude toward the threat they face.
But Russia’s hybrid and psychological warfare has now clearly extended to Germany, too. Following Germany’s announcement this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte spoke of a “new normal” that Ukraine’s allies now face. So, is Berlin now at war with Moscow? Formally, no. There has been no declaration of war, nor has Article 5 of the NATO treaty, its collective defense clause, been invoked.
Blurred Lines
For now, Germany does not even want to consider consultations under Article 4, the preliminary stage. But the lines between hybrid and direct warfare are blurred, and Russia is using this to its advantage. After the United States, Berlin is one of Ukraine’s biggest supporters, and as Washington increasingly turns its back on NATO, the EU and commitments to solidarity, the resulting vacuum is ideal for authoritarian rulers. Sowing doubt, or even convincing a large part of the German population to scale back its support for Ukraine — all of that would be a triumph for Moscow.
The knee-jerk reactions to arson attacks on power grids and substations, reports of explosions at a major train station in the south of the country, and the suspected attack on a defense company in Bavaria show that Russia’s strategy of sowing uncertainty is working: Russia could have been behind it, people immediately said, without any evidence whatsoever. On the other hand, it can be seen in statements from the Alternative for Germany and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which exploit the situation to harp on about an unnecessary escalation toward war while none of the cases has yet been solved.
The string of incidents may be coincidental, and investigations must, of course, continue in every case until those responsible are identified. This applies regardless of whether they turn out to be state actors, far-right or far-left extremists pulling the strings, or individuals. The psychological war is in full swing. Whatever you want to call it, Putin, the Kremlin, the Russian government and their playbook should not be underestimated. Moscow has long since achieved at least some of its strategic objectives.
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