Gulf Diplomacy Looks to Prevent the Next Round of the Iran War after the US Midterms
Iran anticipates a U.S.-Israeli attack after the U.S. midterm elections. This would pose incalculable risks to the economies and societies of the Gulf States.
In March, Ted Cruz said, “I don't believe that what is happening in Iran will be front and center in November. If it extends that long, we've done something wildly wrong. The president said at the beginning this is going to be a matter of several weeks.” Well, that time has come. U.S. warlord Donald Trump seems to be toying with the idea of simply trying again what has already gone "wildly wrong" once before: The Gulf region is expecting the next round of America's military warfare after the midterm elections, perhaps with Israeli involvement, and this time with attacks by all sides on the civilian infrastructure of the region.
From leaked information, it is unclear whether Trump still genuinely believes in a quick military solution or is counting on the Islamic Republic collapsing economically and surrendering. He also provided his vice president, JD Vance, with cover for an attempt to return to negotiations, which Trump is downplaying, at least in public.
Vance has never hidden his opposition to this war. He may be hoping on turning it to his political advantage in the future. He addressed his letter to the Iranian regime directly to the man in charge, rather than to a subordinate: to the hardline Revolutionary Guard commander, the present Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Mohsen Rezaei, rather than to the president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is known to favor negotiations. Both are laymen — so much for the mullah regime.
Return to June
So far, Iran appears to be stubbornly sticking to its demands: a return to the Islamabad-Memorandum concluded in June. The memorandum envisaged a sequence of post-ceasefire commitments favorable to Tehran, with American concessions coming first, followed by a relatively swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control -- and everything else, including nuclear negotiations, later.
The U.S. administration wants to reverse this, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both an election winner and loser, backing it. This is Vance's personal Achilles' heel: Everything he negotiated in June and that Trump endorsed with his bombastic signature at the G7 summit in Versailles wasn’t worth the paper it was written on.
This also has consequences for America's partners in the region: Diplomatic initiatives to prevent a new war, which would pose incalculable risks to the economies and societies of the Gulf states, are sprouting like mushrooms. Recently, senior envoys have been arriving in Tehran, one after the other.
Non-Aggression Pact
The approaches differ: Qatar simply wants to stop the clock for now; Oman seeks a formula for opening the Strait of Hormuz; and the Mecca Pact (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey) aims to prevent a full-scale military escalation and the merging of the Gulf and Yemen wars. All of them have, to varying degrees, a regional non-aggression pact in mind.
At a broader level, there is the painful realization that Iran, regardless of who governs it, must be integrated into a regional security architecture. The U.S. and Israel set out to demonstrate that there was another way, but have failed to prove it. The people across the region, including in Iran, have lost confidence that they can safely place their trust in Washington.
In March, Ted Cruz said, “I don't believe that what is happening in Iran will be front and center in November. If it extends that long, we've done something wildly wrong. The president said at the beginning this is going to be a matter of several weeks.” Well, that time has come. U.S. warlord Donald Trump seems to be toying with the idea of simply trying again what has already gone "wildly wrong" once before: The Gulf region is expecting the next round of America's military warfare after the midterm elections, perhaps with Israeli involvement, and this time with attacks by all sides on the civilian infrastructure of the region.
From leaked information, it is unclear whether Trump still genuinely believes in a quick military solution or is counting on the Islamic Republic collapsing economically and surrendering. He also provided his vice president, JD Vance, with cover for an attempt to return to negotiations, which Trump is downplaying, at least in public.
Vance has never hidden his opposition to this war. He may be hoping on turning it to his political advantage in the future. He addressed his letter to the Iranian regime directly to the man in charge, rather than to a subordinate: to the hardline Revolutionary Guard commander, the present Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Mohsen Rezaei, rather than to the president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is known to favor negotiations. Both are laymen — so much for the mullah regime.
Return to June
So far, Iran appears to be stubbornly sticking to its demands: a return to the Islamabad-Memorandum concluded in June. The memorandum envisaged a sequence of post-ceasefire commitments favorable to Tehran, with American concessions coming first, followed by a relatively swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control -- and everything else, including nuclear negotiations, later.
The U.S. administration wants to reverse this, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both an election winner and loser, backing it. This is Vance's personal Achilles' heel: Everything he negotiated in June and that Trump endorsed with his bombastic signature at the G7 summit in Versailles wasn’t worth the paper it was written on.
This also has consequences for America's partners in the region: Diplomatic initiatives to prevent a new war, which would pose incalculable risks to the economies and societies of the Gulf states, are sprouting like mushrooms. Recently, senior envoys have been arriving in Tehran, one after the other.
Non-Aggression Pact
The approaches differ: Qatar simply wants to stop the clock for now; Oman seeks a formula for opening the Strait of Hormuz; and the Mecca Pact (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey) aims to prevent a full-scale military escalation and the merging of the Gulf and Yemen wars. All of them have, to varying degrees, a regional non-aggression pact in mind.
At a broader level, there is the painful realization that Iran, regardless of who governs it, must be integrated into a regional security architecture. The U.S. and Israel set out to demonstrate that there was another way, but have failed to prove it. The people across the region, including in Iran, have lost confidence that they can safely place their trust in Washington.
Previous article![]( "US Military Must Not Be Allowed To Hide Source of PFAS Contamination")
