A Slow-to-Act Japan Irritates the US

The Ukraine crisis has widened the gap between Japan and the U.S. The U.S. worries that if the two countries don't take a firm stance on the issue, it could spark chaos in Asia as well. Its impatience to move forward with sanctions on Russia is increasing its dissatisfaction with Japan, which has been slow to act.

In late March, Russia created tension between itself and the U.S. by annexing Crimea, the southern portion of Ukraine. Around the same time, a symposium on Japan-U.S. relations was held in Washington.

“With this, it's become easy to strengthen a 'shake-up' of the Senkaku Islands. This could be what China is sensing.”* Former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage gave that warning about the impact the Ukraine crisis would have on Japan. The U.S., Japan and Europe have been unable to stop Russia's actions. Seeing through those failed measures, China, too, could become more assertive.

Without Strong Sanctions

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe joined with other leaders at the “Group of Seven” (G-7) talks and strengthened his criticism of Russia. However, he's not putting up sanctions as strong as those of the U.S. and European Union (EU). His timing for establishing sanctions was also slower than both the U.S. and the EU.

Prime Minister Abe has met for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin five times, after which he firmly expected to enter negotiations over the Northern Territories. He was also aiming to prevent China and Russia from uniting over anti-Japanese sentiments. Yet, as a result of Russia incorporating Crimea and increasing its military pressure on Eastern Ukraine, Washington turned an increasingly severe eye on Japan for its cooperation with Russia.

Such feelings were expressed by a U.S. government official, who divulged that “Russia's incorporation of Crimea has crossed a line that should not be crossed. In the U.S. political administration, voices asking why Japan still hasn't strengthened its sanctions are beginning to be heard.”*

Another example is the American reaction to a March 19 conference in Tokyo, where Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry hosted a “Japan-Russia Investment Forum” with the Russian Ministry of Economic Development. Though the cabinet ministers who were scheduled to attend postponed, at the beginning of the meeting, messages from both leaders were read aloud, and a memorandum on corporate cooperation was signed.

Behind closed doors, the American side is expressing concern over such cooperation, stating, “It's unfortunate that this is taking place at a time when the U.S. and Europe are moving forward with sanctions.”*

Before the Ukraine crisis, the U.S. political administration's position was to welcome closer ties between Japan and Russia. The Japanese and Russian ministers in charge of foreign affairs and defense held meetings (“2-plus-2”) for the first time last November. At that time, several U.S. government officials evaluated the situation positively, making comments like “Cooperation between Japan and Russia is also in line with American national interests,”* and “When Russia makes its appearance in Asia, it will not be with China, but arm in arm with Japan and the U.S.”*

As far as the U.S. is concerned, the worst case scenario would be China and Russia forming an alliance, which could then oppose anything and everything put forward by American diplomacy. If Japan and Russia were to become close, however, it would be easy to prevent such a scenario from occurring.

Edward Luttwak, a military strategist who advises the U.S. Department of Defense, also pointed this out: “In Russia, because it doesn’t have the economic strength for a sudden military expansion, it doesn't pose as much of a threat to us as China. Moreover, Russia is exposed to expansion from China in the Far East. Taking a close look at China, we — Japan, the U.S. and Russia — can cooperate in Asia in the long-term.”*

However, due to the Ukraine crisis, such an outlook for Russia is beginning to fade within the Obama administration.

Senkaku Islands Are Also Affected

The undercurrent here is the same as what was expressed at the beginning of Armitage's speech: If we excuse Russia's actions here, then China could misunderstand.

A former U.S. government official who's still close to the administration explains: “If we take a soft approach toward Russia's incorporation of Crimea, it's not unlikely to also have an effect in Asia because China might then think it's OK to be more aggressive in the East and South China Seas.”*

If China grows too confident, the first country to bear the brunt of its actions will be Japan. Despite this, Japan's response to Russia has been slow, which is adding to the American side's frustration.

U.S. military leaders brought this subject up, stating, “Before long the Crimea issue will recoil, also putting the Senkaku Islands in danger.”*

Given the strength (or, rather, the weakness) of Japan's sanctions, the state of affairs remains largely unchanged. However, it's not only the U.S. and Europe who are watching the Abe administration's interactions with Russia. China is watching, too.

Can Japan and the U.S. get on the same page and work together? The success or failure of that endeavor will influence the direction of Asia.

*Editor’s Note: The quotations in this article, accurately translated, could not be verified.