American Economy and Employment Over the Past Ten Years

Published in People's Daily
(China) on 3 January 2010
by Dong Qing (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Crystal Jin. Edited by Jessica Boesl.
The American economy had been growing steadily every decade since World War II, but in 2000 it took a sudden turn for the worse. The Washington Post checked American economic data over the last decade and found that an improved rate of paid employment, total GDP, median household income and family assets had been the worst in about 7 decades. These ten years since the new millennium have been “a sad ten year period” for the American economy and employees.

In 1999, the American economy was good and some economists thought that recession would not come to America again. But during the first ten years after 2000, America was hit by recession twice and the range of economic growth has been the worst since the 1930s.

According to statistics, since the 1940s, paid employment increased by 20 percent every year in America, but between December 1999 and the end of last year, it did not grow at all. Furthermore, inflation aside, the median income of American households decreased for the first time in the past 10 years, according to records that have been kept since the 1960s. Family assets also dropped for the first time since the 1950s.

On one hand, it is because the American economy was at its height, setting a rather high precedent for the years followed; on the other hand, the bubble of the real estate market and consumption was out of control, which hindered the substantive economy in the long term. The chief economist and executive vice president for Global Insight pointed out that “the problem is that we mismanaged the macroeconomy, and that got us in big trouble.”

The bulge in mortgage was the main cause of the economic bubble. In 2008, gross liabilities of American families had risen by 117 percent since 1999, and it was the same in the commercial property market and the finance market. According to some reports, America spent the years since 2000 proving what the result would be if an economy depended too much on loans. As a result, financial crisis swept the whole world, causing joblessness to rise up to 10 percent.

According to some reports, this millennium could be a good lesson for economists and policy makers, allowing them to better understand how to manage economies. The Federal Reserve System should know that not only specific organizations should be subject to financial supervision, but also that the financial system affects the whole economy, so risks should be paid attention.

How to prevent the economic bubble from growing again is the most important task for Obama's government now. With this goal, the government has been devoting itself to the improvement of the financial system, investing in clean energy and other fields. Just like Obama said in November last year, the challenge for now is how to get what we call a post-bubble growth model; one that is sustainable.


美报盘点过去10年:美经济及打工仔"失落十年"

2010年01月03日

  据香港媒体援引外报报道称,自二战以来,美国每个10年均能保持稳定经济增长,不过踏入2000年,情况急转直下。《华盛顿邮报》盘点美国过去10年经济数据,发现无论是职位增长、经济产值、入息中位数抑或家庭资产,均录得近70年来最差表现,令千禧年代成为美国经济及打工仔的“失落十年”。

  进入千禧年前的1999年,美国经济一片向好,当时甚至有经济学家认为衰退不会重临美国土地。没想到,美国千禧年代遭到两次衰退,经济增长幅度更是自1930年代以来最差。

  据统计,美国自1940年代以来,职位数目每10年均能录得最少20%净增长,但自1999年12月至去年底,职位数目出现零增长。此外,扣除通胀因素后,过去10年美国家庭入息中位数,是1960年代有纪录以来首次下跌,家庭资产净值亦是1950年代以来首次减少。

  造成这种现象,一方面是由于1999年美国经济正值巅峰,比较基数较高;但另一方面,楼市和消费泡沫失控,阻碍实体经济活动,令经济长期停滞。IHS环球观察首席经济师贝拉韦什指出:“宏观经济调控失败,令我们陷入困局。”

  借贷膨胀是导致泡沫的主因。2008年最高峰时期,美国家庭总负债较1999年上升117%,商用物业市场及金融机构亦出现同样情况。报道形容,美国花了整个千禧年代,实验经济严重倚赖借贷会造成什么后果,结果造成席卷全球的金融海啸,以及高达10%的失业率。

  报道认为,千禧年代将为经济学家及施政者带来另一场教训,让他们更深入了解如何管理经济。对联储局而言,未来应该明白金融监管不应再只是因循守旧地监控个别机构,而是应弄明白金融系统对整体经济造成的风险,并且要管理这些风险。

  对奥巴马政府而言,如何防止泡沫重临已成为重中之重。政府致力于改革金融体系、投资清洁能源及其它领域等,均围绕这一中心。正如奥巴马去年11月所说,目前的挑战就是:如何建立一个可持续发展的后泡沫经济增长模式。
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