Is Trump Coming Back?

U.S. democracy is recognized for its strong institutions. This is reflected in an independent judiciary that is free of undue influence, among many other things. American judges, magistrates and Supreme Court justices have a remarkable record of integrity.

Lawyers who have risen to this level in the administration of justice are generally well respected. They have been subjected to extensive congressional oversight in an attempt to ensure that they adhere to the letter and spirit of the law to the extent possible. It goes without saying that the judges must be of irreproachable moral character.

The president is responsible for nominating Supreme Court justices and federal judges. As a result, the judges and justices are not exempt from political bias since they
respond to the way in which Democratic and Republican presidents interpret original constitutional protections.

Former President Donald Trump had the opportunity to nominate three members of the Supreme Court and saw them confirmed. Because Supreme Court justices serve lifetime appointments, the three Trump-appointed justices will be on the court for at least some 30 years. This will influence the direction of the court for several decades. Not only that, but Trump nominated 230 federal judges who were confirmed, and who reflect Trump’s values and ideology.

I mention all this to provide some context for what is shaping up to possibly be an unprecedented political and judicial crisis for our neighbor to the north. Trump may end up campaigning for reelection at the same time he is on trial facing at least four charges of inciting an insurrection; conspiracy to commit perjury; defrauding the United States and conspiracy to defraud the United States; and obstructing the official congressional proceeding to certify the election of President Joe Biden.*

Trump has experienced the humiliation of answering in court like any other accused citizen. He has faced thousands of reporters and photographers who have reveled in seeing him arrive at the famous courthouse where El Chapo Guzmán, among others, was tried. Presiding over the trial (in New York on hush-money charges) will be Colombian-born Judge Juan Merchan, known as tough but fair.**

In addition to this, there is an investigation underway regarding the presence of classified documents, many of them containing national security information, at the former president’s property in Florida, which the FBI found in the former president’s bathroom!

Nevertheless, there does not appear to be any challenger to Trump in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis appears to be that challenger, but he has not formally declared his candidacy,*** which says a lot about the control Trumpists have over the party.

How do you explain the fact that a significant segment of the U.S. society is prepared to reelect a person who subverted the democratic system? A person who put that system at risk by instigating an insurrection by the most radical groups, an attack that went so far as to take the U.S. Capitol by force? A person who, in addition, has a proven record of misogyny and racism?

Trump has started holding rallies with his supporters and repeating the same ideas that got him elected in 2016, including building a wall that would cover the entire border with Mexico and definitively cut off entry into the United States of migrants without documentation.

Meanwhile, President Biden still has low approval ratings despite his success in steering the economy, international recognition for his position on the war in Ukraine and, by extension, his confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

There is speculation about the state of his health and his electability. He will be 80 this year, a little older than Trump, who is 77.

There will be presidential elections in Mexico and the U.S next year. Unless there is a surprise along the way, Trump will be the Republican candidate, facing Biden who, for the moment appears to have a slight lead.

It will be interesting to see the first meeting between whoever wins in the U.S. and the man or woman who is elected in Mexico.

* Translator’s Note: In the most recent federal indictment filed on Aug. 1, 2023, Trump is charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States; conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding; obstruction of, and attempt to obstruct, an official proceeding; and conspiracy against rights.

**Editor’s note: The author is referring to the New York state indictment of Trump on charges related to paying hush money to a porn star ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

***Editor’s note: Ron DeSantis announced his presidential bid on May 24.