Bad Prospects

791

July 14, 2025

Published in Frankfurter Rundschau
(Germany) on 7 July 2025
by Steven Geyer (link to original link to original)

Translated from by Mallory Matsumoto. Edited by Michelle Bisson.

Elon Musk’s political plans will probably fail.

“Ridiculous.” That was President Donald Trump’s verdict on the plans of his former buddy, financier and adviser, Elon Musk, to found a new party in opposition to Trump’s Republican Party. And as much as Trump’s opponents in the U.S. and around the world want Musk to inflict as much damage as possible, Trump will probably prove to be right.

The tech billionaire may be smart enough not to reach for the stars, i.e., for real power. His goal is not a party in Congress or governmental offices; he only wants a vehicle with which he can continue to make headlines that annoy Trump and increase pressure within Trump’s own party. And he is talking about candidates that he will send into close races — to deprive the Republicans and Democrats he wants to hurt the most of decisive votes.

U.S. history shows that that is quite possible. But there is little to suggest that Musk will succeed. Even the timing is cutting it close for completing the laborious process of registering a party and candidates in enough states for the midterms next year. In the next presidential election, Musk is hampered by the fact that the U.S. Constitution does not allow him, a South African by birth, to run for the top office. If he were to find another candidate, the experience with Trump demonstrates how long such alpha males may manage to cooperate with each other.

Moreover, Musk will hardly be able to beat the populists at their own game. The president continually uses defectors as scapegoats. If Trump’s package of spending cuts unleashes its devastating effects, for instance, he can blame Musk, his ex-saver-in-chief. What should Musk use to counter that? Musk is not the only one short on ideas. So, his party is likely to become one thing above all: the stillborn child of a braggart.

Schlechte Aussichten
Elon Musk wird mit seinen politischen Plänen wahrscheinlich scheitern. Der Kommentar.

Lächerlich“: So lautet das Urteil von US-Präsident Trump über die Pläne seines einstigen Kumpels, Finanziers und Beraters Elon Musk, eine neue Partei in Abgrenzung zu Trumps Republikanern zu gründen. Und so sehr sich Trump-Gegner in den USA und aller Welt wünschen, dass Musk ihm möglichst großen Schaden zufügt: In diesem Fall dürfte Trump Recht behalten.
Zwar ist der Tech-Milliardär klug genug, nicht nach den Sternen – also echter Macht – zu greifen. Sein Ziel sind keine Parlamentsfraktionen oder Regierungsämter, sondern nur ein Vehikel, mit dem er weiter für Schlagzeilen sorgen kann, die Trump ärgern und in der eigenen Partei unter Druck setzen. Und er spricht von Kandidierenden, die er in knappe Wahlen schickt – um jene Republikaner oder Demokratinnen die entscheidenden Stimmen zu kosten, denen er am meisten schaden will.
Die Geschichte der USA zeigt, dass das durchaus möglich ist. Wenig spricht jedoch dafür, dass es Musk gelingt. Schon zeitlich wird es knapp, um bereits bei den Zwischenwahlen in einem Jahr die aufwendige Anmeldung von Partei und Kandidat:innen in ausreichend vielen Bundesstaaten zu meistern. Bei den folgenden Präsidentschaftswahlen steht Musk zudem im Weg, dass die US-Verfassung ihm als gebürtigen Südafrikaner die Spitzenkandidatur verbietet. Fände er ein anderes Zugpferd, zeigt die Erfahrung mit Trump, wie lange solche Alphas es schaffen, miteinander zu kooperieren.
Zudem wird Musk den Populisten kaum mit dessen Waffen schlagen. Der Präsident nutzt Abtrünnige stets als Sündenböcke. Wenn etwa Trumps Kürzungspaket seine verheerende Wirkung entfaltet, kann er die Schuld auf seinen Ex-Sparkommissar schieben: Elon Musk. Welche Inhalte soll der dem entgegensetzen? Dazu fällt nicht nur Musk wenig ein. Seine Partei dürfte also vor allem eins werden: die Totgeburt eines Gernegroß.

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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