Bogusław Chrabota: Will the West Lose to Russia on Friday?
There has been a high level of hysteria over the planned Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin summit in Alaska. The world is afraid of betrayal, with good reason.
The Polish media are dominated by mostly catastrophic comments, even though the details of a potential ceasefire agreement are based mainly on unverified information. Perhaps not so much rumors, but assumptions arising from a general assessment of the rules that the American president applies in foreign policy and his previous relations with Vladimir Putin.
In an extremely unfavorable version, it would be an agreement between the leaders of the two powers over the heads of not only President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but also Ukraine's European allies. And more importantly, it would legitimize Ukraine's territorial losses to Russia, contrary to the established rule of territorial integrity. In other words, Trump would give Ukraine, along with an uncertain and probably short-lived cessation of hostilities, a modern-day Yalta. In Kyiv, this would have to be interpreted as a failure, for it would put Zelenskyy in a difficult position. Even conditional acceptance of an agreement unfavorable to Ukraine could provoke a revolt and brutal retributions. And we, in Warsaw, Paris, Berlin or London, would have — and quite rightly so — the feeling of being reduced to third-league players in international politics. Will that happen? We don't know. But it is worth looking from the other side at the planned summit in Alaska and its effects.
What Are the Potential Benefits of the Alaska Agreement?
Putin may declare victory after a ceasefire is reached, but it will be synonymous with defeat for many: proof that a nuclear power like Russia could not cope with a despised neighbor. Ukraine and its president or the new leadership will gain time to rest and develop their defense capabilities. What the state of the exhausted Ukrainian army is today, we do not know. And Europe? Support for Ukraine will strengthen, not only in the military sense, but also in the investment and, more broadly, economic sense.
The ceasefire may also cause a reverse migration, essential to the reconstruction of the country: War refugees from Ukraine will begin to return home. What has happened as a result of the war in Europe is not without significance. This is the revival of the political solidarity of Western countries, a movement toward defense, the vitalization of the defense industry, the expansion (by Finland and Sweden) and a strengthening of the European partnership in NATO, and, finally, the transformation of the peace community into a community that understands the risks of war All these are the real consequences of the three-year war in Ukraine, which, according to the Kremlin's plans, was to last several days.
Back to the summit in Alaska. We need to know where we stand. If we, as Europe, have any influence over Trump, it is small. We should be making it loud and clear that Zelenskyy belongs at that summit. We should demand respect for the rules of international law. Maintain sanctions. And most importantly, to support the Ukrainians even more, after a possible ceasefire, in order to keep Kyiv in the orbit of the West. This is an important goal for Europe, and especially for Poland.
The Polish media are dominated by mostly catastrophic comments, even though the details of a potential ceasefire agreement are based mainly on unverified information. Perhaps not so much rumors, but assumptions arising from a general assessment of the rules that the American president applies in foreign policy and his previous relations with Vladimir Putin.
In an extremely unfavorable version, it would be an agreement between the leaders of the two powers over the heads of not only President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but also Ukraine's European allies. And more importantly, it would legitimize Ukraine's territorial losses to Russia, contrary to the established rule of territorial integrity. In other words, Trump would give Ukraine, along with an uncertain and probably short-lived cessation of hostilities, a modern-day Yalta. In Kyiv, this would have to be interpreted as a failure, for it would put Zelenskyy in a difficult position. Even conditional acceptance of an agreement unfavorable to Ukraine could provoke a revolt and brutal retributions. And we, in Warsaw, Paris, Berlin or London, would have — and quite rightly so — the feeling of being reduced to third-league players in international politics. Will that happen? We don't know. But it is worth looking from the other side at the planned summit in Alaska and its effects.
What Are the Potential Benefits of the Alaska Agreement?
Putin may declare victory after a ceasefire is reached, but it will be synonymous with defeat for many: proof that a nuclear power like Russia could not cope with a despised neighbor. Ukraine and its president or the new leadership will gain time to rest and develop their defense capabilities. What the state of the exhausted Ukrainian army is today, we do not know. And Europe? Support for Ukraine will strengthen, not only in the military sense, but also in the investment and, more broadly, economic sense.
The ceasefire may also cause a reverse migration, essential to the reconstruction of the country: War refugees from Ukraine will begin to return home. What has happened as a result of the war in Europe is not without significance. This is the revival of the political solidarity of Western countries, a movement toward defense, the vitalization of the defense industry, the expansion (by Finland and Sweden) and a strengthening of the European partnership in NATO, and, finally, the transformation of the peace community into a community that understands the risks of war All these are the real consequences of the three-year war in Ukraine, which, according to the Kremlin's plans, was to last several days.
Back to the summit in Alaska. We need to know where we stand. If we, as Europe, have any influence over Trump, it is small. We should be making it loud and clear that Zelenskyy belongs at that summit. We should demand respect for the rules of international law. Maintain sanctions. And most importantly, to support the Ukrainians even more, after a possible ceasefire, in order to keep Kyiv in the orbit of the West. This is an important goal for Europe, and especially for Poland.
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