Trump Essentially Begins a ‘Purge’ of Leftist Regimes in Latin America*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Expert Vasiliev: For Trump, Venezuela is a kind of litmus test

One of the key drivers behind recent events is the surge in illegal immigration from Venezuela. Over the past four years, the country has become the second-largest source of undocumented immigrants to the U.S., after Mexico. Estimates suggest that between 700,000 and 1 million Venezuelans have crossed the border. Some in the U.S. believe this was a deliberate strategy by the Maduro government to flood the United States with immigrants who could destabilize the nation’s social and political climate.

Efforts to remove President Nicolás Maduro through legal and diplomatic means date back to Donald Trump’s first term, but those plans ultimately fell through. Under the more “tolerant” Joe Biden administration, the issue faded from the political agenda. Now Trump has essentially begun a "purge" of leftist regimes in Latin America. Beyond Venezuela, I think he also hopes to change regimes in Nicaragua and even Cuba. For Trump, Venezuela has become a kind of litmus test. Adding to the complexity, Venezuela has continued to supply oil to the United States, particularly to states including Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Trump’s team has a clear economic incentive to gain influence over Venezuela’s oil sector, which may well be one of its primary objectives.

Inside the White House, there’s also a belief that leftist radical movements in the U.S. receive foreign backing, with many of those connections tracing back to Latin America. Trump’s strategy aims to suppress leftist forces both domestically and abroad. He reportedly fears that, under certain conditions, these movements could form a unified front capable of obstructing his broader political agenda.

Back in 2019, Trump’s first administration even drafted a plan for a possible invasion of Venezuela, with estimates suggesting that up to 100,000 troops would be needed. The idea never fully disappeared. Venezuelan officials continue to warn that a war with the United States remains possible. For now, the only thing preventing direct military action such as an invasion or naval blockade is Washington’s involvement in multiple other conflicts linked to Trump’s foreign policy. At the moment, the White House appears to be “testing the waters.” But once what strategists call a “window of opportunity” opens, a U.S. move against Venezuela is likely.

Another important factor is Venezuela’s close relationship with both Russia and China. During the Biden presidency, some in Washington even viewed Caracas as a potential “new Cuba,” with all the geopolitical consequences that implies. U.S. strategic interests in the region are therefore unmistakable. The only remaining question is when Trump’s team will decide the timing is right. They will act when the opportunity arises and the operation can be carried out with minimal bloodshed.