Beijing Takes Dim View of Agreement after Ukraine War Special Envoy’s Calls Leaked
The full transcripts of two phone calls in October between President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov were recently made public by Bloomberg. In them, Witkoff urged Putin to praise Trump’s role in achieving a Gaza ceasefire, in hopes of securing a peace plan favorable to Russia. He also revealed Trump’s negotiating hand, indicating that the president was ready to pressure Ukraine into ceding nearly 890 square miles of territory in its eastern region (approximately 19% of its land) in exchange for a Russian ceasefire. Witkoff’s remarks have been denounced as bordering on treason, and the revelations have shocked all quarters, potentially leaving Beijing uneasy as well.
The call transcripts expose at least two phenomena: First, Trump, who considers himself skilled in the “art of the deal,” does indeed approach complex geopolitical conflicts with business-style tactics, focusing solely on his own interests to the detriment of international justice and principles and completely disregarding the interests of smaller nations and allies. Second, he entrusted real estate developer Witkoff — a close friend and confidant, but a rank newcomer to diplomacy — with a critical mission, completely blindsiding Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Further, Witkoff showed his own hand, seeking only to flatter Putin into quickly accepting the peace plan to provide Trump with results, but potentially compromising American and allied interests.
In the wake of these phone calls coming to light, Russia, the United States and Europe have each accused the other of having a mole within their ranks. Russian officials suggested European intelligence agencies could have intercepted and leaked the calls to sabotage U.S.-Russia negotiations, with one of Moscow’s deputy foreign ministers calling it “hybrid information warfare” aimed at undermining bilateral relations and Ushakov stating that the leaks were plainly intended to get in the way of Russia and the U.S. coming to an agreement.
For their part, European intelligence officials countered that the leaks could have originated with Russian hardliners or oligarchs hoping to see the conflict drag on. A former U.S. intelligence official interpreted it as a precision strike by the American “deep state,” stabbing Trump in the back. Even though the popular messaging app WhatsApp was used for a small portion of the conversation, the official suspected the leaker of being from the U.S., noting that both the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency possess such eavesdropping capabilities.
At least two Republican lawmakers have criticized Witkoff’s conduct, likening him to someone on Russia’s payroll providing Russian officials with guidance and counsel, characterizing it as a “stain” on the U.S. reputation, and calling for such “pointless side shows and secret meetings” to end. Backlash and dissatisfaction have also surfaced from within the Make America Great Again camp, and, facing public pressure, Trump has defended the actions as “a very standard form of negotiation” and “what a dealmaker does.”
The scoop further corroborates Trump’s pro-Russia stance, reigniting speculation about whether it stems from personal factors — such as past investments in Russia or assistance from Putin — or whether there are skeletons in Trump’s closet that Putin is exploiting. Some commentators have suggested that U.S.-China-Russia relations are undergoing a strategic realignment and that Trump’s primary objective is to end the Russia-Ukraine war and fulfil his campaign promises. Gaining Putin’s trust could therefore drive a wedge between China and Russia, which would align with long-term U.S. interests.
China’s economy is currently in its worst state in four decades. Beijing is clearly hoping for the Russia-Ukraine war to stretch on even further, as this would tie down U.S. and European (NATO) military resources and financial capabilities, thus buying China more strategic time and space for itself. The 28-point peace plan Trump has proposed, widely seen as heavily skewed in Russia’s favor, appears to reflect an urgent desire to stabilize relations with Putin. It also revives the strategy he pursued in his first term — that of aligning with Russia to contain China — which was overturned by the “Russiagate” investigation.
Ukrainian forces have recently encountered setbacks, but Russia itself is grappling with sanctions, declining energy revenues, widening budget deficits and economic downturn. Its shortages in weapons production capacity and personnel mean the war will soon become unsustainable, and some forecasts predict the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end in 2026 due to the Russian economy collapsing. Why, then, is Trump so eager to engineer a way out for Putin? Perhaps the U.S. and Europe have both grown tired of endless aid to the Ukraine military and the financial black hole and are seeking to relieve themselves of this burden as soon as possible. This would intensify the sense of urgency behind Trump’s push for a ceasefire.
But seeking an end to the Russia-Ukraine war at any cost and on terms humiliating to the U.S., NATO and Ukraine would bear similarities to the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan. This has once again prompted speculation as to whether it could be an open ploy aimed at redirecting all resources to East Asia, so as to counter China. Furthermore, a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine would significantly benefit Trump and the Republican Party in next year’s midterm elections.
Beijing ostensibly supports a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, but privately, it may be uneasy about the downstream implications of a Trump-Putin deal. Even if Putin does not turn on China, Ukraine regaining peace would be unwelcome news for Beijing on multiple fronts. Continuing to shield Russia, Beijing has condemned the leak of the call between Witkoff and Ushakov as unacceptable. It is now an open question whether U.S.-China-Russia relations will undergo a major reversal under Trump. This risky move of his has provided the outside world with considerable room for speculation.
The call transcripts expose at least two phenomena: First, Trump, who considers himself skilled in the “art of the deal,” does indeed approach complex geopolitical conflicts with business-style tactics, focusing solely on his own interests to the detriment of international justice and principles and completely disregarding the interests of smaller nations and allies. Second, he entrusted real estate developer Witkoff — a close friend and confidant, but a rank newcomer to diplomacy — with a critical mission, completely blindsiding Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Further, Witkoff showed his own hand, seeking only to flatter Putin into quickly accepting the peace plan to provide Trump with results, but potentially compromising American and allied interests.
In the wake of these phone calls coming to light, Russia, the United States and Europe have each accused the other of having a mole within their ranks. Russian officials suggested European intelligence agencies could have intercepted and leaked the calls to sabotage U.S.-Russia negotiations, with one of Moscow’s deputy foreign ministers calling it “hybrid information warfare” aimed at undermining bilateral relations and Ushakov stating that the leaks were plainly intended to get in the way of Russia and the U.S. coming to an agreement.
For their part, European intelligence officials countered that the leaks could have originated with Russian hardliners or oligarchs hoping to see the conflict drag on. A former U.S. intelligence official interpreted it as a precision strike by the American “deep state,” stabbing Trump in the back. Even though the popular messaging app WhatsApp was used for a small portion of the conversation, the official suspected the leaker of being from the U.S., noting that both the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency possess such eavesdropping capabilities.
At least two Republican lawmakers have criticized Witkoff’s conduct, likening him to someone on Russia’s payroll providing Russian officials with guidance and counsel, characterizing it as a “stain” on the U.S. reputation, and calling for such “pointless side shows and secret meetings” to end. Backlash and dissatisfaction have also surfaced from within the Make America Great Again camp, and, facing public pressure, Trump has defended the actions as “a very standard form of negotiation” and “what a dealmaker does.”
The scoop further corroborates Trump’s pro-Russia stance, reigniting speculation about whether it stems from personal factors — such as past investments in Russia or assistance from Putin — or whether there are skeletons in Trump’s closet that Putin is exploiting. Some commentators have suggested that U.S.-China-Russia relations are undergoing a strategic realignment and that Trump’s primary objective is to end the Russia-Ukraine war and fulfil his campaign promises. Gaining Putin’s trust could therefore drive a wedge between China and Russia, which would align with long-term U.S. interests.
China’s economy is currently in its worst state in four decades. Beijing is clearly hoping for the Russia-Ukraine war to stretch on even further, as this would tie down U.S. and European (NATO) military resources and financial capabilities, thus buying China more strategic time and space for itself. The 28-point peace plan Trump has proposed, widely seen as heavily skewed in Russia’s favor, appears to reflect an urgent desire to stabilize relations with Putin. It also revives the strategy he pursued in his first term — that of aligning with Russia to contain China — which was overturned by the “Russiagate” investigation.
Ukrainian forces have recently encountered setbacks, but Russia itself is grappling with sanctions, declining energy revenues, widening budget deficits and economic downturn. Its shortages in weapons production capacity and personnel mean the war will soon become unsustainable, and some forecasts predict the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end in 2026 due to the Russian economy collapsing. Why, then, is Trump so eager to engineer a way out for Putin? Perhaps the U.S. and Europe have both grown tired of endless aid to the Ukraine military and the financial black hole and are seeking to relieve themselves of this burden as soon as possible. This would intensify the sense of urgency behind Trump’s push for a ceasefire.
But seeking an end to the Russia-Ukraine war at any cost and on terms humiliating to the U.S., NATO and Ukraine would bear similarities to the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan. This has once again prompted speculation as to whether it could be an open ploy aimed at redirecting all resources to East Asia, so as to counter China. Furthermore, a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine would significantly benefit Trump and the Republican Party in next year’s midterm elections.
Beijing ostensibly supports a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, but privately, it may be uneasy about the downstream implications of a Trump-Putin deal. Even if Putin does not turn on China, Ukraine regaining peace would be unwelcome news for Beijing on multiple fronts. Continuing to shield Russia, Beijing has condemned the leak of the call between Witkoff and Ushakov as unacceptable. It is now an open question whether U.S.-China-Russia relations will undergo a major reversal under Trump. This risky move of his has provided the outside world with considerable room for speculation.
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