What’s Coming
Published in El Colombiano
(Colombia) on 31 December 2025
by David E. Santos Gómez (link to
original)
Two issues will dominate the geopolitical reality of the coming year; at least in terms of what’s foreseeable. For one, in Europe it is obviously urgent to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. And secondly, — in our hemisphere — all eyes will be on Venezuela and the real possibility of political change driven by the United States. It could be the end of Chavismo after more than a quarter of a century in power.
The war in Europe is approaching its fourth year, and Moscow is not backing down. Its ambitions are even greater now than they were in February 2022, when Vladimir Putin declared a “special military operation” and launched the invasion. The Kremlin plans to emerge from this conflict with a large portion of its neighbor's territory and a renewed sense of political strength. Kyiv, for its part, is reluctant to give in or to trust that any negotiation will guarantee its future security.
However, Brussels cannot sustain much longer a conflict that has dealt a severe blow to the economy and forced an exponential increase in military spending. And it is precisely because of the exhaustion of allies that an agreement in 2026 is possible. Washington plays a leading role, and Donald Trump wants to take credit as the expert negotiator who ended the most damaging conflict for Europe since World War II.
And that is why, in the final days of the year, he welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Mar-a-Lago to hear his options. “We are 95% of the way to an agreement,” said the American president.
In our neighborhood, however, tensions are increasing because of the Venezuelan issue. The massive U.S. deployment in the Caribbean will end only with Nicholas Maduro's departure from Miraflores. Any other outcome would be seen as a victory for Chavismo, and the White House is not willing to back down an inch. What began rhetorically as a war against drugs quickly revealed itself to be a regime change operation. It is also, in Trump's own words, to recover the oil he considers stolen.
The situation in Venezuela is dire. All the paths forged in the last six months seem to lead to the defeat of Chavismo: from demonstrations by the opposition, through economic suffocation and military deployment, to the bombing of boats and the detention of oil tankers. However, its demise has been announced so many times that it is now hard to believe the moment has come.
During an election year, the consequences of Venezuela’s future will be decisive for Colombia. Citizens will demand that each candidate take a clear position on the issue. Whatever the outcome of U.S. pressure may be, it will have a huge impact on national politics and the economy. In international politics, nothing will matter as much to Colombians as the turmoil in Caracas.
The war in Europe is approaching its fourth year, and Moscow is not backing down. Its ambitions are even greater now than they were in February 2022, when Vladimir Putin declared a “special military operation” and launched the invasion. The Kremlin plans to emerge from this conflict with a large portion of its neighbor's territory and a renewed sense of political strength. Kyiv, for its part, is reluctant to give in or to trust that any negotiation will guarantee its future security.
However, Brussels cannot sustain much longer a conflict that has dealt a severe blow to the economy and forced an exponential increase in military spending. And it is precisely because of the exhaustion of allies that an agreement in 2026 is possible. Washington plays a leading role, and Donald Trump wants to take credit as the expert negotiator who ended the most damaging conflict for Europe since World War II.
And that is why, in the final days of the year, he welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Mar-a-Lago to hear his options. “We are 95% of the way to an agreement,” said the American president.
In our neighborhood, however, tensions are increasing because of the Venezuelan issue. The massive U.S. deployment in the Caribbean will end only with Nicholas Maduro's departure from Miraflores. Any other outcome would be seen as a victory for Chavismo, and the White House is not willing to back down an inch. What began rhetorically as a war against drugs quickly revealed itself to be a regime change operation. It is also, in Trump's own words, to recover the oil he considers stolen.
The situation in Venezuela is dire. All the paths forged in the last six months seem to lead to the defeat of Chavismo: from demonstrations by the opposition, through economic suffocation and military deployment, to the bombing of boats and the detention of oil tankers. However, its demise has been announced so many times that it is now hard to believe the moment has come.
During an election year, the consequences of Venezuela’s future will be decisive for Colombia. Citizens will demand that each candidate take a clear position on the issue. Whatever the outcome of U.S. pressure may be, it will have a huge impact on national politics and the economy. In international politics, nothing will matter as much to Colombians as the turmoil in Caracas.
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