Attack on Venezuela. Donald Trump Crosses the Rubicon
The U.S. has begun bombing Caracas. The MAGA movement breaks with isolationism. And for the White House and Donald Trump, Ukraine is becoming a lower priority.
The images arriving from the Venezuelan capital on Saturday morning are reminiscent of the first hours of many other wars of our time. Fuerte Tiuna military base, Higuerote airport and Generalissimo Francisco de Miranda Air Force Base: Americans tried to destroy strategic facilities of military importance in Caracas and the surrounding area. Apparently, this is supposed to be a surgical operation that will lead to the rapid fall of the regime of Nicolás Maduro.*
Attack on Venezuela — U.S. intervention in Iraq or Afghanistan was supposed to be short as well.
There is a lot to suggest that this could work. An utterly corrupt regime has brought extreme poverty to a country with the largest oil reserves in the world. One in three Venezuelans felt it was better to leave the homeland under such conditions — a record migration rate in peacetime. In the rigged presidential election in the summer of 2024, the formal opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, most likely won an overwhelming victory. María Corina Machado, the de facto leader of the democratic movement who could not run for election, managed to get out of the country to collect the Nobel Peace Prize with the help of the U.S. She is ready to take the reins of power with America's blessing.**
If Donald Trump's plan works, it will be the greatest achievement of his entire political career. According to the newly published 2025 National Security Strategy, no region in the world more important to Washington today than Latin America. Taking control of Venezuela would mark a decisive step towards pushing China and Russia out of that region. It would also mark a completely new deal in the global energy market, taking away a key advantage from Putin in the war against Ukraine. It could finally prove to be a decisive factor in the MAGA movement to retain majority in Congress after the November election and keep Trump or his designated successor in the White House for another term.
Trump would not have come to power in 2016 or 2020 without the support of a significant portion of the 70 million Latinos. Will they feel solidarity with Venezuela if the fighting continues?
But America also knows very different scenarios. Interventions in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were supposed to be quick and effective. They ended in years of extremely costly struggles. The attack on Baghdad in March 2003 ultimately ended the period of Pax Americana in the world.
America has been fighting a war on drugs for half a century — without success. This time could be similar. Anti-American sentiments are strong in Latin America, the result of decades of Washington's support for authoritarian leaders and the rampant exploitation of natural resources. Trump has linked intervention in Venezuela to the fight against drug trafficking. But the U.S. has been fighting the war on drugs for more than half a century and has essentially lost it. Nearly half a million people have died in Mexico alone as a result, and yet the power of drug gangs has never been greater — there and in the U.S. The huge wave of drugs flooding the U.S. has not been stopped.
Another warning sign for America is Brazil. In this giant country occupying half of South America, anti-American Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated the "Trump of the Tropics," Jair Bolsonaro.
A prolonged clash with Venezuela would be disastrous news for Ukraine, Europe, and Poland. It would mean that Washington would eventually withdraw from supporting the fight against Russian imperialism.
Trump would not have come to power in 2016 or 2020 without the support of a significant portion of the 70 million Latinos. Will they feel solidarity with Venezuela if the fighting continues? How will they react to seeing drastic images from a country where many of them come from? And won't the majority of his white supporters, who hoped for the return of isolationism in America, turn away from Trump?
Trump might triumph in Venezuela. He may also come to greatly regret his decision.
*Editor's note: Madura was arrested and extradited to the U.S. on January 3, 2026.
**Editor's note: Rather than "blessing" Machado as Venezuela's president, Trump selected Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.
The images arriving from the Venezuelan capital on Saturday morning are reminiscent of the first hours of many other wars of our time. Fuerte Tiuna military base, Higuerote airport and Generalissimo Francisco de Miranda Air Force Base: Americans tried to destroy strategic facilities of military importance in Caracas and the surrounding area. Apparently, this is supposed to be a surgical operation that will lead to the rapid fall of the regime of Nicolás Maduro.*
Attack on Venezuela — U.S. intervention in Iraq or Afghanistan was supposed to be short as well.
There is a lot to suggest that this could work. An utterly corrupt regime has brought extreme poverty to a country with the largest oil reserves in the world. One in three Venezuelans felt it was better to leave the homeland under such conditions — a record migration rate in peacetime. In the rigged presidential election in the summer of 2024, the formal opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, most likely won an overwhelming victory. María Corina Machado, the de facto leader of the democratic movement who could not run for election, managed to get out of the country to collect the Nobel Peace Prize with the help of the U.S. She is ready to take the reins of power with America's blessing.**
If Donald Trump's plan works, it will be the greatest achievement of his entire political career. According to the newly published 2025 National Security Strategy, no region in the world more important to Washington today than Latin America. Taking control of Venezuela would mark a decisive step towards pushing China and Russia out of that region. It would also mark a completely new deal in the global energy market, taking away a key advantage from Putin in the war against Ukraine. It could finally prove to be a decisive factor in the MAGA movement to retain majority in Congress after the November election and keep Trump or his designated successor in the White House for another term.
Trump would not have come to power in 2016 or 2020 without the support of a significant portion of the 70 million Latinos. Will they feel solidarity with Venezuela if the fighting continues?
But America also knows very different scenarios. Interventions in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq were supposed to be quick and effective. They ended in years of extremely costly struggles. The attack on Baghdad in March 2003 ultimately ended the period of Pax Americana in the world.
America has been fighting a war on drugs for half a century — without success. This time could be similar. Anti-American sentiments are strong in Latin America, the result of decades of Washington's support for authoritarian leaders and the rampant exploitation of natural resources. Trump has linked intervention in Venezuela to the fight against drug trafficking. But the U.S. has been fighting the war on drugs for more than half a century and has essentially lost it. Nearly half a million people have died in Mexico alone as a result, and yet the power of drug gangs has never been greater — there and in the U.S. The huge wave of drugs flooding the U.S. has not been stopped.
Another warning sign for America is Brazil. In this giant country occupying half of South America, anti-American Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated the "Trump of the Tropics," Jair Bolsonaro.
A prolonged clash with Venezuela would be disastrous news for Ukraine, Europe, and Poland. It would mean that Washington would eventually withdraw from supporting the fight against Russian imperialism.
Trump would not have come to power in 2016 or 2020 without the support of a significant portion of the 70 million Latinos. Will they feel solidarity with Venezuela if the fighting continues? How will they react to seeing drastic images from a country where many of them come from? And won't the majority of his white supporters, who hoped for the return of isolationism in America, turn away from Trump?
Trump might triumph in Venezuela. He may also come to greatly regret his decision.
*Editor's note: Madura was arrested and extradited to the U.S. on January 3, 2026.
**Editor's note: Rather than "blessing" Machado as Venezuela's president, Trump selected Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.
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