There’s Only 1 Way Out of a Dead End Like Hormuz: Retreat*
The United States and Iran are going to Pakistan to discuss our future and leave us out of the conversation
-The world is experiencing a new nuclear dynamic, one that has gained unprecedented speed and is good for no one
We have reached a point where everyone has lost their way in this war, beginning with those who started it. The justifications for it have shifted during the fighting, ceasefire deadlines keep changing, and Donald Trump keeps rewriting reality as he goes. A year ago, he told us that Iran’s nuclear program was over; now he has launched a new war to end that very same program.
In Pakistan, negotiations are ongoing to reach something similar to the deal Barack Obama achieved, with the international community controlling uranium as much as possible. The current escalation has served no purpose, and Trump is now afraid to escalate further.
In Pakistan, our future is being negotiated while we are left on the outside. If there is an agreement, perhaps the price of gasoline will drop; if not, reserves will run low, and Lufthansa has already suspended thousands of flights. If the escalation spreads to the Houthis in the Red Sea, we will face a serious global crisis for months, because at a certain point, simply reopening the straits will not be enough to reverse the damage once it has spread to agriculture (via a lack of fertilizers) or technology (via a lack of semiconductors).
Iran wanted a nuclear program for deterrence purposes, to achieve what North Korea has achieved, which is to be untouchable. But Iran discovered in the course of this war that it had another, perhaps more powerful weapon, the disruption of the global economy. Trump has now responded in kind — if you close the strait, we’ll block Iran. It’s a game of mutual exhaustion, and whoever has the greater capacity to endure wins. Trump has less leverage: he has the midterm elections on his doorstep, and he has no patience and zero focus or attention.
The Iranians are the losers above all in this war. Not the leadership, but the people. Those who took to the streets and were massacred by the tens of thousands, encouraged by a promise of help that never arrived.
The window of opportunity that sometimes opens with the death of old autocrats, as it did with Leonid Brezhnev in the Soviet Union, existed up to a couple of months ago. Now, they have martyred the old Ayatollah and replaced him with a new one. With the most powerful army and a new leadership in control, it is hard to believe that Iranians are any closer to democracy today than they were a few months ago.
And if Iran still manages to get a nuclear program, it will be terrible news for what comes next: Saudi Arabia will want one, then Bahrain, then others. It required an enormous international effort to ensure that, after North Korea got a nuclear weapon, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan did not seek their own. There was a functional international system then. Today, there is none.
In Poland, there is talk of a nuclear program, something that has never been discussed before. Let’s imagine we’re in Warsaw and we’re asked to trust that, when the time comes, Trump will stand up to Vladimir Putin. When has Trump ever stood up to Putin? Never. In the Far East, there’s discussion about nuclearizing South Korea and Japan; in Europe, the French nuclear umbrella has been rediscovered. The nuclear dynamic has gained unprecedented momentum, and it is good for no one.
The only question is how much we will pay before we recognize that once you reach a dead end—just like the Strait of Hormuz—the only way out is to retreat.
*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
-The world is experiencing a new nuclear dynamic, one that has gained unprecedented speed and is good for no one
We have reached a point where everyone has lost their way in this war, beginning with those who started it. The justifications for it have shifted during the fighting, ceasefire deadlines keep changing, and Donald Trump keeps rewriting reality as he goes. A year ago, he told us that Iran’s nuclear program was over; now he has launched a new war to end that very same program.
In Pakistan, negotiations are ongoing to reach something similar to the deal Barack Obama achieved, with the international community controlling uranium as much as possible. The current escalation has served no purpose, and Trump is now afraid to escalate further.
In Pakistan, our future is being negotiated while we are left on the outside. If there is an agreement, perhaps the price of gasoline will drop; if not, reserves will run low, and Lufthansa has already suspended thousands of flights. If the escalation spreads to the Houthis in the Red Sea, we will face a serious global crisis for months, because at a certain point, simply reopening the straits will not be enough to reverse the damage once it has spread to agriculture (via a lack of fertilizers) or technology (via a lack of semiconductors).
Iran wanted a nuclear program for deterrence purposes, to achieve what North Korea has achieved, which is to be untouchable. But Iran discovered in the course of this war that it had another, perhaps more powerful weapon, the disruption of the global economy. Trump has now responded in kind — if you close the strait, we’ll block Iran. It’s a game of mutual exhaustion, and whoever has the greater capacity to endure wins. Trump has less leverage: he has the midterm elections on his doorstep, and he has no patience and zero focus or attention.
The Iranians are the losers above all in this war. Not the leadership, but the people. Those who took to the streets and were massacred by the tens of thousands, encouraged by a promise of help that never arrived.
The window of opportunity that sometimes opens with the death of old autocrats, as it did with Leonid Brezhnev in the Soviet Union, existed up to a couple of months ago. Now, they have martyred the old Ayatollah and replaced him with a new one. With the most powerful army and a new leadership in control, it is hard to believe that Iranians are any closer to democracy today than they were a few months ago.
And if Iran still manages to get a nuclear program, it will be terrible news for what comes next: Saudi Arabia will want one, then Bahrain, then others. It required an enormous international effort to ensure that, after North Korea got a nuclear weapon, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan did not seek their own. There was a functional international system then. Today, there is none.
In Poland, there is talk of a nuclear program, something that has never been discussed before. Let’s imagine we’re in Warsaw and we’re asked to trust that, when the time comes, Trump will stand up to Vladimir Putin. When has Trump ever stood up to Putin? Never. In the Far East, there’s discussion about nuclearizing South Korea and Japan; in Europe, the French nuclear umbrella has been rediscovered. The nuclear dynamic has gained unprecedented momentum, and it is good for no one.
The only question is how much we will pay before we recognize that once you reach a dead end—just like the Strait of Hormuz—the only way out is to retreat.
*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
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