Obama’s Early Announcement For Election: Fundraising?

Published in udn
(Taiwan) on 14 April 2011
by Lu Yizheng  (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Paul Yuan. Edited by Mark DeLucas.
On Children’s Day, Taiwan was in the middle of its Qingming long weekend, a time dedicated to our deceased loved ones. Cars jam the highway as people return home to remember their loved ones. Coincidentally, Obama announced on Facebook his participation in the presidential election of 2012.

No matter from which perspective, Obama’s actions seems to be in a little too much of a hurry. Historically, presidential candidates are nominated during both parties' national convention. Whether Democrats or Republicans, the quadrennial national convention will be called upon by the National Committee, usually the summer before the election. After the nomination, the election campaign will commence and continue for some time. On the second Tuesday of November, the president will be elected, followed by the inauguration on January 20 of the next year. This is a historical tradition that has never changed.

The date for both parties’ national convention has been set for next year: Republicans will host the meeting from August 27 to 30; Democrats from September 3 to 6. The location has not been decided and depends on factors like accommodation and transportation.

Obama has thrown his hat into the ring 17 months before the national convention, hoping to preserve an advantageous spot in the race for presidency. However, this hope does not come without obstacles.

Obama is known for his clear thoughts, articulation and for being the first black President of the United States. He is greatly favored by the liberals of the East and West coast. But in the conservative Midwest, he hasn’t gained too much support. Despite his very early announcement of participating in the next election, this did not scare the Republicans away from jointly competing for the presidency.

Republican leaders who have emerged on stage and announced intentions to compete for the presidency are: ex-Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, ex-Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, the younger brother of Bush junior, Jeb Bush, and current New York Mayor and independent Michael Bloomberg.* They are all respectable and tough competitors and Obama will have a hard time concluding the state of affairs.

So why is Obama sticking his head out first before getting a clear picture of the competition? In short, he wants to begin fundraising before other candidates, more specifically, a $1 billion war chest for his campaign. He predicted other candidates will have a harder time holding out their hands, certainly not as easily as he does.

The U.S. Campaign Financing Act prohibits financial groups and corporate bodies from funding the elections. Therefore most of the fundraising is conducted by 527-registered Political Action Committees asking individuals to donate, and the process is tedious and quite ineffective. As the president of the United States, Obama has a head start fundraising for his campaign before his rivals do. Although an unfair advantage, no laws prohibit him from doing so.

Obama has to do this because of various dilemmas: It has been 10 years since 9/11, and the U.S. economy has not improved in a positive light. Republicans took the majority in the House of Representative last year, dominating the political landscape, and the Senate is facing a similar situation. In next year's presidential nominations for both parties, Republican Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann will perhaps be the first woman to reach for the White House with the full support of the tea party. We cannot forecast whether Obama will succeed in re-election. Just wait and see for yourself.

*Editor's note: None of these individuals has in fact announced the intention to run for president.


陸以正:歐巴馬提前宣布競選 只為募款?

【聯合報╱陸以正】
2011.04.14 02:52 am

兒童節那天,台灣正值清明長假,回鄉掃墓的車輛塞爆了高速公路,歐巴馬用網路和臉書,宣布他決定在二○一二年競選連任的新聞。

無論從什麼角度去看,歐巴馬此舉未免太猴急了些。按照歷史成例,總統候選人需由兩黨全國代表大會推舉。不論民主黨或共和黨,四年一次的全國代表大會,須由全國委員會召集,通常都在大選當年夏天才召開。獲得黨提名後,展開競選活動。十一月第二個星期二全國投票,選出總統;次年元月廿日才就職。這是歷史傳統,永遠不會改變。

明年兩黨代表大會的日期已定:共和黨將在八月廿七日至卅日召開,民主黨是九月三日至六日。地點尚未決定,要看當地可提供多少旅館房間,與交通情形作考量。

用美國俗語來說,歐巴馬早在民主黨召開全代會十七個月之前,就「把帽子丟進鬥牛圈(throws his hat into the ring)」,無非先佔居有利地位。但事實顯示,他這點希望似乎也將落空。

歐巴馬的長處是思想敏捷,能言善辯,再加歷史上第一位黑人總統的光環,使他成為美國東西兩岸自由主義派的寵兒。但在保守的中西部,他的支持度並不高。縱然他這麼早就破例宣布投入競選,並未嚇退共和黨群雄並起,爭奪提名的浪潮。

迄今已經浮出檯面,要和他一爭短長的共和黨大老,有密西西比州前州長鮑柏(Haley Barbour)、前駐聯合國大使波頓(John Bolton)、麻州現任參議員布朗(Scott Brown)、父兄都做過總統的傑布‧布希(Jeb Bush),此外還有以獨立資格參選的現任紐約市長彭博(Mike Bloomberg)。對歐巴馬而言,這些人都是勁敵,各有神通。究竟鹿死誰手,是個大問號。

歐巴馬為何要在勝負難卜之際,率先投入選戰呢?一言以蔽之,是想趕在一大堆人參選之前,籌足十億美元的選舉經費(所謂war chest)。他估計前舉幾位共和黨候選人伸手向大眾要求捐款,沒有他這位現任總統那麼容易。

美國法律有「選舉募款法(Campaign Financing Act),嚴禁財團或公司捐款助選。因此全國有五百廿七個註冊的「政治行動委員會(Political Action Committees)」專門向人募捐,也是杯水車薪,無濟於事。歐氏以在位總統之尊,趁對手何人尚未定奪之時,提早一年半直接向老百姓伸手,於理雖有不當,卻無法可管。

歐巴馬這樣做,也有他的苦衷:「九‧一一」雖已十年,美國經濟仍無起色。去年的國會選舉,共和黨聲勢大漲,一舉奪下了眾議院;參議院也岌岌可危。明年兩黨推舉候選人,共和黨明尼蘇達州女議員貝克曼(Michelle Bachmann)有「茶黨」幕後支持,有可能成為首次問鼎白宮的女候選人。歐巴馬能否贏得連任,只有天知道,大家且等著看熱鬧吧。
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